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엔비디아 2분기 실적이 매출 135억달러로 컨센서스를 크게 상회했고 3분기 가이던스 160억달러를 제시해 시간외에서 주가가 8% 가량 상승했다. 총마진율 70%, 영업이익 급증, 250억달러 자사주 매입이 근거로 제시됐다. 진행자는 AI 붐이 버블이지만 향후 수년간 큰 부를 창출하며, 엔비디아 실적 여파로 MSFT·GOOGL·AMD·AVGO 등 기술주가 상승할 것이라고 전망했다.
다듬은 글
so I'm peering out my window right now looking up in the sky and I think I just saw Nvidia stock fly by what is going on investors hopefully you guys are doing well out there if you own Nvidia stock you're probably having a great year you probably had a great last six months you've pretty much had a great time owning this stock for any length of time and in the after hours inv viid just blowing the doors off of not only its stock but also setting the stage for dozens and dozens of other stocks to follow on to this rally and we're looking at a story unfolding right now in the technology space that is something that we just simply haven't seen probably since the creation of the internet and as the internet started to roll out and that was a different time that was a different place there was far more unknown then and there was Far different circumstances that created the com boom We are on the precipice of the AI boom this will this will ultimately be a quote bubble this bubble will inflate and it will inflate and it'll continue to inflate and inid results today show you that this bubble while it probably will ultimately be looked back on as a bubble is going to create generation type wealth for a lot a lot of investors that get on the train and watch the bubble inflate what is going on investors hopefully you guys are doing well out there time to talk about Nvidia here to date the Stock's up 229 per over the last year shares of the chip maker are up 167% excuse me 176% we've got a forward price to earnings on this one at 55 that is going to look like an undervalued Value stock after you look at the company's Q2 and More in particular the Q3 guide which just simply is going to have to rate everything that this company is going to have to report here very very soon we're doing editing we're doing everything on the Fly here at the investor Channel let's jump over to the Q2 numbers Revenue coming in at just $13.5 billion recall that Nvidia guided you three months ago they said Revenue was going to come in at $1 billion when you come over here and look at these segment results darn near their data center Revenue almost came in at $ 11 billion even their gaming gpus which I tell you what we're not going to spend a ton of time with here on the on the channel still kind of sequential quarter over quarter growth even year-over-year growth on those and you you peruse YouTube and it's just a Gamers kind of talking down the price of the gpus vases the performance well they're having no problem selling those there other business lines while we're seeing pretty strong sequential growth year-over-year relatively flat or down it gave us a to a grand total of $1 13.5 billion worth of Revenue which if you compare to last year or even last quarter has just gone absolutely parabolic now what's also gone absolutely parabolic is the fact that revenue is expected to be at $16 billion that is right 16 billion in the most recent quarter so folks here's our quarter over quarter trend for NVIDIA we went from six billion to 7 billion to 13 billion and now we're about to go to $16 billion but again I want you to keep in mind this company guided for1 billion in revenue and they put up 13.5 my hunch is this 16 billion for the upcoming Q3 this is 18 19 maybe upwards of 20 billion by the time you get to that Q3 now this $16 billion number is a surprise to Wall Street which was at an estimate closer to $ 122.4 billion before this announcement which is one of the reasons why Nvidia stock in the after hours is continuing to move higher after a very very good day I said I was expecting numbers much closer to $14 billion so I was a billion and a half over where Wall Street estimates were for NVIDIA again I sent this tweet out before today and no Nvidia making everybody look stupid coming in at $16 billion dollar what's going to have to happen with Nvidia shares well again they're they're being rated with the price which we talk about here in a second in the after hours the stock is going to have to get re-rated higher again folks uh $16 billion is well north of a billion dollars higher than the high-end estimate which we're we're trending up okay it's not like Wall Street is is completely behind the the curve with Nvidia they have been trending their revenue estimates and earning estimates up with Nvidia for the past several quarters including over the last 6 months raising their estimates by 58% they just have not gotten them even higher so now we know Nvidia is guiding for $16 billion chances are the company's probably going to do a number closer to 17 18 if everything goes well you don't get a a ban in China you might do1 1920 billion do in Revenue for the Q3 well that means Q4 you're probably going to do a heck of a lot more than 13 and A2 you're going to do way more than 14 none of the I I I don't think for the next probably eight quarters Nothing On The Wall Street estimate is correct so you're going to have a complete reating of this stock you're going to have to rate all these EPS estimates so all the people out there that are going to be like nvidia's overvalued and I think at one time shares of Nvidia were absolutely overvalued when you go back and look at this company's Revenue history when they were putting up 6 billion five6 billion in revenue and nobody knew at that time this type of Revenue growth was coming well absolutely shares of the company were overvalued from a traditional sense but right now right now the stock trading at whatever the price to earnings multiple you want to put on it is actually probably not high enough when you have this type of Revenue growth and I'm going to show you here in a second look at these look at these gross margins 70% this is going to sound like I'm in love here but I mean I'm practically am with these results 70% gross margins for NVIDIA in the most recent quarter last year they were sitting at 65% excuse me last quarter so just over the last quarter we've raised our margins by over 5.5 points and then from last year you were sitting at 43.5% you ju this is something you just you can't prict and you you almost never see this in the stock market this is truly remarkable I have done obviously hundreds of these earnings videos I've I've reviewed thousands of these at a time I'm trying to go back in my head when I saw this type of explosion when it came to revenue growth and surprising to the upside it it happened during coid but there was a you know a lot of reasons for that when it came to government stimulus this is happening largely because the customers of Nvidia have been making billions and billions and billions of dollars over the past decade with Google and Microsoft and meta being some of the largest customers of this company they just continue to unload those billions of dollars into now the pockets of Nvidia folks Revenue over the last year went from 6.7 billion up to 13.5 folks that's not the most impressive thing on this chart look at this cost of Revenue went from 3.8 billion up just a little bit to $4 billion your gross profit went from 3 billion up to $9.5 billion you barely spent anything on R&D compared to last year your total operating expenses barely nudged up again I want to remind you this company just put up 101 101% Revenue growth and when you look at these financials the cost of Revenue didn't move the research and development cost didn't move selling General administ ATIV these things are basically uh selling themselves more or less and so you had operating income go from essentially Break Even this company actually was a break even company so you went from 500 million all the way up to 6.8 billion this company was just marginally profitable this time last year now we printed $6.2 billion worth of profit in a quarter and guess what folks guess what the next quarter is going to be even better and the next quarter after that is probably going to be better at some point the revenue growth slows down from 100% as you start to lap these types of results this time next year but Nvidia basically just rated its stock to a much much higher level from a net income and then when we come down here to like a cash flow perspective it's reating itself to obviously obviously a much higher level they've right side their inventory over the past year they've increased their prepaid expenses that's actually in this case a very good sign the fact that they went from 800 million in prepaid expense all the way up to 1.4 billion they're having to you know prepay suppliers prepay tsmc prepay to build and F fill this type of inventory it's just uh insane long-term debts no one's really concerned about that at this point come down here to cash flows everything from net income basically flows all the way down to operating cash flows they don't really do a whole lot on the investing side you are now buying back the stock so that is what Nvidia is choosing to do with a lot of this excess cash they are also paying back debt as well which will make the financials look a little bit better although 100% Revenue growth solves a lot of those questions the company announced a new 25 billion do buyback so that's where a large large percentage of the positive cash flow that the company will generate over the next 12 to 24 months a lot of that is going to go to that beautiful share buyback and again I want to highlight that this company announced $1 billion worth of total revenue for all of their business that was the guidance for the Q2 that we got I believe maybe back in April from this company and they put that up nearly in the data center again these are your AI chips so when the company says that they're going to do $16 billion in the most upcoming quarter forgive me forgive me to think that this is definitely a case of sandbagging and that Nvidia is probably going to come to a number much closer to potentially $20 billion for the upcoming quarter and I showed you at these gross margins and similar operating expenses this is a company that yes that yes is a well North at this point a$1 trillion do company but finally now has the financials to back it up now what's also not backing up is the stock price of Nvidia we have rated higher with the shares in the after hours up over 8% I am recording this I believe before Jensen Wong gets on the conference call and starts to sing sweet music to the analysts which I'm sure will have to pick their jaws off the ground based on the results and the guidance that Nvidia has given Jensen Wong obviously not a man that is shy about hyping and pumping what he is doing this in my opinion is more or less the culmination of his career he is more more than likely going to take a Victory lap and more than likely going to continue to pump the stock in The Afters again this is shares of the company obviously are up a million perc over the last year but during the regular trade we're up 3% and now in the after hours up another 8% when we move around the different chipmakers that are out there AMD also Up 3 and a half% during the regular trade up over 3% in the after hours when you look at a company like broadcom up 2 and 1.2% during the regular trade another nearly 3% in the after hours and then finally when you get over here to Intel fortunately not catching the bid and you know I've beaten on Intel quite a bit on this channel companies May more or less waiting for PC damp man to come back and similar to AMD as well but all eyes all eyes on Nvidia is in the after hours shares of the company up now north of $510 per share we're pushing to a brand new 52e high if the shares able to hold that level and close there after tomorrow I would argue that the Ford Revenue estimates on this company are going to have to come in way hotter than is anticipated so when you come to sites like Seeking Alpha and sites like Yahoo finance and they say you have a forward price to earnings on this one at 55 I would guess you could probably come close to cutting that in half this is a stock believe it or not that is actually probably trading much much much closer to a market multiple believe it or not on not only its sales but its earnings as well this is going to have a ripple effect among many many other tech stocks as well as you see shares of Microsoft and likely Google as well moving higher in the after after hours as nvidia's chips here's the thing that you guys need to understand if you've missed the train with Nvidia don't don't worry don't don't be concerned don't feel like you need to even come in here and Chase Nvidia if you don't want to every product that Nvidia sells is going to create another product and help fuel another software service product fuel some other Hardware product fuel some other cloud service provider there is going to be billions likely trillions of dollars that is going to be made off the back of nvidia's explosive earnings these chips take a while to manufacture on top of that once you get them delivered you have to install them on a server and network them and get the software all loaded up then you have to train your language model and get that all suited out these things take months and months and months we are likely still 12 months away from realiz izing the sales and the revenue that Nvidia is going to create for other software and other providers as well I provide a lot of This research to paid people so I better slow down in terms of my recommendation but if you read between the lines folks this is not this is not the end this is not even the the beginnings of a bubble we're talking about the beginnings of a multi- multi-year trend when you see results like this which you just never you'd never ever see this in the stock market trillion dooll companies constantly being rated after earnings it means a whole flood a whole flood of software products are coming and coming very very soon hopefully you guys enjoyed today's video be back again with more on Friday until then good luck with your Investments
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