Legendary Investor Bill Miller On Dow's 500 Point Sell-Off | CNBC

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결론: 다우 500포인트 급락은 역사적 정상 변동이며 장기 투자자는 주식을 유지해야 한다는 입장 [시장 상황 진단] 금리는 유럽이 미국보다 약 18개월 늦게 상승 중이며, 연준 정책은 명확하고 10년물 금리는 꾸준히 상승해 왔다고 설명 지난해는 역사상 가장 낮은 변동성을 보였고, 3.3% 조정 외에는 없었다는 점 언급 1월 7% 상승은 지속되기 어렵고, 강한 1월 이후 2월 하락은 통상적 패턴이라고 봄 [하락 원인 및 지표] 다우 500포인트 하락은 무시할 수 없는 큰 수치이나, 정치적 요인보다는 시장 내부의 평가 조정으로 해석 애플은 고점 대비 10% 하락, 다수 종목이 5~6% 하락했으며 안정기 이후 하락이 더 체감된다고 분석 지난 100년간 1년 내 5% 하락은 통상적으로 여러 차례 발생했다고 언급 [중앙은행·구조적 우려] 중앙은행 보유 자산 15~20조 달러, 장기간 인위적으로 낮았던 금리 등 현 상황에 역사적 선례가 없다는 질문에 Ellis는 본질적으로 같은 패턴의 반복이라고 답변 가장 중요한 이슈는 금리나 중앙은행보다 사람들이 길어진 수명 대비 은퇴 자금 준비를 충분히 하지 않는 문제라고 강조 [시장 전망] 현재 시장은 글로벌 동조 회복 국면이며 실적과 현금흐름이 증가 중이라고 평가 2016년 초 15% 하락 후 연간 강세, 러시아·중국·연준 우려는 노이즈였다는 과거 사례 제시 밸류에이션이 높고 금리·중앙은행 개입 영향으로 강세였지만, 취약하다는 우려에는 명확히 동의하지 않음 [리스크 및 조언] 가장 큰 리스크는 장기 투자자가 상승장에서 충분히 투자하지 못하는 것이며, 하락장 자체보다 이것이 더 위험하다고 봄 경제는 대부분 성장하고 실적은 대체로 상승하며 주식은 대부분 회복되므로, 1987년 폭락과 2008년 금융위기에도 장기 유지자는 괜찮았다고 주장

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01. first of all it's no secret that interest rates are going up have been going up and will go up so I think in Europe's call it you know 18 months behind where the u.s. is but the feds been very clear about what their policies are the 10 years been kind of steadily climbing I think it's more the case that we had the lowest with lowest volatility in history last year we had no given three point three percent correction we had a January there's what seven percent I think January mark it's not going to be up to seven percent every month and usually a very strong January typically followed by down the February and I think there's no heightened political sensitivity ice-t I stole your stat I think you've probably heard that but but we're down five hundred nobody can't minimize we're not down a hundred points bill five hundred is still a significant number Apple now down ten percent from its highs a number of stocks are down five and six percent people are gonna wonder why what it can't just be history or natural selling don't you think there's some cause no I just think it's the evident flaw in the market I think the fact that stocks no stocks because it marks been so stable the last of your in sort of steadily higher people sensitivity I think the decline is probably greater so it feels the feels worse than those and usually over over the last hundred years we've had you know several five percent drops in the market within one year typically so I think this is just premi yeah and Charles you've been in the business 50 years okay you've read you've written 16 books you've seen pretty much every kind of market cycle that we've had but some would suggest that this time is different because you've got central banks with about 15 to 20 trillion dollars in holdings you've got interest rates which were artificially depressed for so many years is there any historical precedent to the kind of market we see today certainly not but in the detail but in the general thing that there's always terribly interesting things going on very important trends being worked out and really smart people paying attention trying to figure out what does that mean for prices in individual securities it's the same old same old same old now what's the most important thing going on right now would you say for the macro market is it rates is it central bank involvement is it investor euphoria as you asked the question I have to make the really most important thing going on is the retirement security is not being given the attention that it really needs because people are living longer than they ever did before and they don't understand how much money it takes to be financially okay during their retirement that's really important honestly the sorts of questions that you'd like me to get into I have to tell you for me they are details 500 points is a significant move down though bill and I think that I mean I hear your point Charles definitely people on retire markets has been certainly very strong given valuations given rates given central bank involvement is the market in your mind particularly fragile right now no no I don't think so I mean I think you know again when you're when you're in these declines if we go down 500 points for you know five more days in a row you know people get increasingly agitated beginning of 2016 remember the market down 15% in the first six weeks and then it rallied significantly the rest of the year and all of the stuff that it was worried about took it down 50% macro worries about Russia about about China about the Fed tightening all that proved to be just noise and I think that right now the most important is going on in the market right now I think we're in the room from a Christian when his global synchronized recovery and I think that's the first time we've seen that in many many years but earnings are going up cash flows are going up and I think well I think the greatest risk that people face in markets is is they they fail to understand a very important thing which is the economy almost always grows and and earnings almost always go up we have recessions and stocks fill up most of the time and so the risk to people's long-term financial health is being under invested when in in long ball markets and not the the drops that they get in bear markets even and even with the crash of 87 the financial crisis of 2008 if people just stayed the course they'd be fine