저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 최근 급락 후에도 상승장은 아직 끝나지 않았다고 보며, 금리 상승은 경기 호조의 신호일 뿐 시장 붕괴 요인은 아니라는 견해. 시장 전망: 최근 하락은 1월에 뒤늦게 진입한 투자자들의 공포 매도 때문일 뿐 고점은 아니며, 경기침체가 뚜렷해질 때가 진짜 고점이라고 봄. 현재 경제는 강하고 실업률은 하락 중이며 이익도 늘고 있다고 평가. 금리 리스크: 10년물 금리가 빠르게 오르는 점을 시장의 화살이 될 수 있다는 질문에 대해, 1987년 사례처럼 채권 금리 급등이 폭락 요인이 될 수 있다고 인정하되, 현재 금리 상승은 경제가 자생적 성장 단계에 들어섰다는 확인이며 연준의 추가 금리 인상도 건강한 현상이라고 봄. 10년물 3% 돌파가 시장을 혼란시킬 것이라는 우려는 동의하지 않음. 세제개편 효과: 세제개편 이후 애널리스트들이 올해 주당순이익 전망을 주당 7달러 상향했으며, 해외 자금 송환(repatriation)이 기업 투자·임금 인상·배당 등으로 이어질 것으로 기대. 통계: 스톡 트레이더스 알마낙 데이터를 인용해 1950년 이후 1월에 S&P500이 4% 상승한 해는 100% 연말 상승했고 평균 수익률이 22%였다고 언급. 본인은 이를 절대적 진리로 보지 않는다고 덧붙임. 리스크 요인: 신규 진입 투자자들의 불안이 추가 하락 압력이 될 수 있음. 금리 급등이 주된 우려 요인. 종합: 1월 흐름은 여전히 양호하며 연간 상승 기대는 유지되나, 금리 상승 속도가 가장 큰 변수.
다듬은 글
We are pleased to welcome back to Trading Nation Ed Yardi, President of Yardi Research. We have a lot of questions about the big picture and the long term, Ed, but I'd like to discuss the last few days, if I may. Obviously, Monday and Tuesday were bad days for the market, we have n't seen anything like that in a long time.
There was a nice rise on Wednesday, followed by a rather sharp reversal. Does this signal anything specific to you about the market? Such a rapid intraday reversal? Well, I hope this is a signal for us to stop and rest for a while. This " bull" market has apparently exhausted itself after the kind of rally we've seen over the past year.
And in fact, I meet a lot of people who were hoping for a correction to re- enter the market. I don't know if it's her. But the fact is that if there are a lot of people waiting for the market to fall to buy, there may not be a big drop because they will come back. Do you think the market will fall further?
I don't think so. I mean, the only reason it could fall a little bit more is because a lot of people got in pretty late in the last, say, a few months, and they might have a little reason to get scared and get out of the market, thinking they got in at the peak. But I don't think this is a peak. The peak will come when it is quite clear that we are entering a recession, and we are still far from that.
There are so many good things happening in the economy right now. The economy is strong. Unemployment is decreasing. Of course, profits are growing. We are starting to see some wage inflation , labor cost inflation . These are all good signs . Profits remain stable. But, Ed, I wonder if these rapidly rising yields —still low by historical standards, I admit, but rising rapidly—could be the arrow that strikes the heart of the market .
What do you think? Perhaps. I mean, you know, if we do have a market crash, it's likely to be something like 1987, when there was no recession. Uh, but the market, uh, even back in '87, went up partly because there was tax reform at the end of '86, who would have thought, uh, and it wasn't until October that the market really crashed for a number of reasons, but one of them was that bond yields actually went up quite significantly, uh.
They went up about 300 basis points then. There's, uh, talk here that if we just go over the 3% mark on 10-year bonds, it could confuse the market. I don't think so. I think, uh, that rising bond yields now would confirm that the economy is doing well, that we're finally seeing self-sustaining growth, that the Fed can raise interest rates a little bit more, and that's actually a healthy thing.
But, you know, it's easy for me to say that, and investors who have recently entered the market can be very nervous about being late, and that can put additional downward pressure on the market. Will tax reform give us another boost? Will this be, will this be, so to speak, the icing on the cake, Ed?
Well, tax reform has a tremendous impact on, uh, profits. Analysts, since the tax package was, uh, passed, have raised their earnings forecasts by $7 per share this year. This, this is a big growth. This is, uh, from what could have been 146 this year. Now they expect, uh, $7 more than that. So, this is just, uh, an initial reaction.
Let's see what happens next . And by the way, this is not the only positive thing. Another positive is all this repatriated money that is coming back. We've been reading, uh, some of these company conference calls, and it seems like they want to pinch themselves. They can't believe, you know, how great this is for their business, and they're just trying to figure out all the ways to spend it.
Yes. I mean, that's exactly how it is . I think, here, here are the statistics I read today. I published, uh, and it, uh , came from the Stock Traders' Almanac, which is based on history, and it's interesting to read and stuff . I don't take this as the ultimate truth, but I find it interesting that since 1950, every time the market has gone up 4% in January, and I mean literally 100% of the time , the S&P has not only finished the year higher, but with an average gain of 22% .
In other words, a January like this means very good things for the whole year. Do you agree with this this year? Well, I agree, because we started with such a fundamental tailwind, namely tax reform. I mean, I think this is a really big deal, and in some ways it could be a big deal for the bottom line .
You know, I'm not a fan of supply theory. I just tend to stick to the facts rather than resorting to sermons. But I tend to believe that the supply-side theorists may be right, since companies receive this money, and it appears as one-time bonuses to employees. This is reflected in wage increases. Some of them say they are going to spend it on plants and equipment.
I mean, it's like Santa Claus is still here. Yes. Well, Santa Claus is still here. We'll see if the last few days change that, but so far January has been a pretty damn good month. Ed Yardy, you're a damn good guy and we're grateful you came to Trading Nation. Thank you. Thank you. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research.
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