저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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결론: 미국 세제개편은 기업 경쟁력을 높여 장기적으로 투자·임금·고용을 늘릴 것이며, 단기 보너스는 부수적이라는 입장. 세제개편과 기업 투자: JP모건은 세제개편으로 이익이 늘어 지점 400곳 확대 등 투자를 확대하고 약 4~5천 명을 고용할 계획이라고 밝힘. 단기 보너스는 부수적이며 장기적으로 경쟁적 세금이 자본·일자리·임금 상승을 가져온다고 주장. 경제 전망: 미국 성장률이 과거 2%대에 머문 원인으로 비경쟁적 세금, 과도한 규제, 인프라 부족, 교육 문제를 꼽으며 3~4% 성장이 가능하다고 봄. 인플레이션과 금리 상승 가능성은 인정하나 단기 급변 가능성은 낮게 봄. 금리·신용: 소비자와 기업 신용 상태는 양호하다고 평가. 금리가 올라도 성장이 뒷받침되면 경제가 괜찮을 것이라며, 레버리지 과다 노출 주의를 언급. 인프라·정책: 다리 건설에 12년이 걸리는 등 관료주의를 비판하며 인프라 개선 필요성 강조. 트럼프 대통령의 이민(다카) 및 무역(중국 지적재산권, 관세·비관세 장벽) 정책에 대체로 우호적. 달러·주식: 약달러는 단기적으로 큰 문제 아니라고 봄. 시장 전망에 대해서는 예측을 피하고 날씨에 비유하며 구체적 방향 언급을 거부. 블록체인·핀테크: 신용카드는 장기적으로 사라질 수 있다는 견해에 동의하며 JP모건도 기술 투자 중. 비트코인에는 관심 없다고 명시. 출연자 전망: 프랑스 마크롱 정부의 개혁과 파리의 매력 증가를 긍정적으로 평가. 정치 출마 가능성은 부인.
다듬은 글
joining us right now for an extended interview JPMorgan chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon good morning happy to be here how are you Becky great to see you help us understand the thinking that that got you to the point of making this announcement this week yeah so we went out to our folks instead we have a tax reform which is good obviously improves the profits of JPMorgan and what can we do to accelerate investments to do more to help lower middle income households to do more philanthropy we want to do it thoughtfully because you know you can't just automatically do all those things so we ready salespeople opening more branches they'll be about four or five thousand jobs and we think is good for JPMorgan and we think it can be very good for the economy you've got Jamie here you know asking if he's just doing this in a cynical way to correct those one only got someone you can ask well that's what you've been implying so what do you think is driven so immediately within the day a day after the announcement was made a number of companies cleaned by the way the parent company of this network Comcast announced one-time bonuses you by the way what you're doing is not a one-time bonus we know so we already do one every year 750 dollars into people making under sixty sixty thousand dollars into their 401k so we already do stuff like that we also reduced the medical deductible for people making under sixty thousand K to reduce the burden of when you have you know large medical what do you make of the decision the economic decision that companies have made over the past month so the way you should look there's two things we our tax system 20 years ago was the same as everybody else over 20 years is to come down here we've all known that is a huge competitive disadvantage driving capital branes company's headquarters overseas studies have shown maybe in five thousand companies net or owned by foreign companies today I'm not against foreign ownership I'm against uncompetitive so once you become competitive one immediate benefit of people doing today which is good I think I totally applaud a company of doing is to say we're gonna use some of this to help our people and help stuff like that but the real benefit comes over time competitive taxes will have more capital more jobs more companies invest in here more foreign companies invest in here and that will wage jobs it'll raise wages and increase jobs and it'll it's better than will always be and I hate this argue we didn't need stimulus today you should have a competitive tax system and good times and bad times it is a I can't believe people think that having an uncompetitive taxes is a good thing for America it shocks me that we even argue that by the way should we look at some of these bonuses and things as a temporary stimulus yeah I think I said I think people can do some things now to show but they're gonna have more to give to help employees but the important thing is that by the way the labor market or is that a function of we we think that employees are gonna see that our profits are so much higher so Larry fakes you thinks most people will be doing this anyway in terms of pay raises I think people did this and then they'll be more aggressive when they invest overtime there might be more aggressive how they pay people overtime you're gonna have a more competitive job market partially resolved is that's a good thing waiting to go up and I promised you we'd be sitting here a year and you all be worried about inflation wages going up to life Jamie that's what's gonna happen you already said barely a Democrat that was like five years ago or something maybe more at this point so you saw the rhetoric from Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer and across the board the word pathetic for this thing it's a tax scam it's a huge giveaway for the rest when you're still a Democrat when you say that I'm not I'm not going into politics well you need a competitive taxi so for the same news that shocks me that they don't understand the importance of it for the sake of America I understand the individual side I might have done things differently you know we were focusing the corporate side so there are things I might have done differently on the individual when I'm done I'm not gonna go there but my point is if you want America to be very competitive you need a competitive tax system and if you don't it will hurt business in America with Church jobs and wages and that is definitely true over time and what you do in the individual side you know you can have a huge moral argument but how you doing why are you going bad and stuff like that so do you think the public opinion on the tax plan is is evolving and is it when it was only 17% for was that misguided what I mean what should the public the public embraces make it sound like you're giving money to rich corporations who made it sound like that a lot of people and yes they're mostly from the other party but the fact is that is somewhat true but my argument is that capital investment in America Drive in America drives wages remember a big company you know we're supported by 40,000 vendors when we open those 400 branches we're talking about there's gonna be you know hundreds of jobs supporting those branches there gonna be people building those branches and he'll be putting the Internet as a branch and stuff like that so you know capital investment the part of a large company usually leads to three or four times more jobs per person in the plant itself and you know people that siddiqa still gonna say all right here's Jamie Dimon a fat cat seat you know of course he likes to text me but you've made the point that that to tie there are two completely bifurcate what's good for for the for the kind of man and what's good for corporations completely say that they're antithetical is no it's not really it's good it's good for business if it's good for business member correctly a hundred and fifty million people work in America I don't like 25 million more for private enterprise right at the end of the day that hundred twenty-five million is an ecosystem like this big and large we support large companies or small companies they support each other that grows everything else can take care of itself and you know the matter of fact people legitimately say it's part of national security having a weak economy is bad for national security the long run and several military people told me that but you know let's make sure we're strong economy so president Trump's gonna be here on Friday yeah what do you want to hear him say you know this I I saw Steve Schwarzman the show talking about that they've been a lot to us you know they're doing a lot of the policy side a lot of pro-growth I'm not gonna say read to reform clap you know have any regulations that make sense that's gonna create proper control on companies doing bad things but also you know enhance growth and stuff like that no we're Pro immigration so I'd like to see him describe promo great he's Pro daca I've heard him speak about it many times and you know they have to negotiate the whole immigration bill and and trade you know I mean I'm a big person in trade I think it's a very good thing I think they're legitimate issues that are being raised by the administration and trade much more around China than around Mexico intellectual property well property tariffs non-tariff barriers here wouldn't Americans speak and they talk about fair they mean reciprocal that's not exactly the Chinese mean by fair and you know doesn't you don't have to have a reciprocal system to be compliant in a WTO and so there are these issues that need to be resolved and they need to be done strategically long-term really think it through and do a so I'm I think you gonna hear that Gary Cole was on I guess your show or something talking about you know America first means not doesn't mean America alone Steve Anderson though this morning talked about how a weak dollar may be a good thing you agree with that and and you and you like the idea that this Treasury secretary is staying that publicly you know usually target secretary don't comment in a dollar and usually a strong dollar means a strong economy but what you have today is a strong US economy and even strong in what people expected Japan Europe and China so very often the value the dollar relates to the relative strength versus what people expected and so I gets five his weak in the short term you know it doesn't matter that much so how are you thinking about the stock market right now we have a galley on yesterday he said if you're in cash you're stupid but he also said that he thinks that we could get to a point where we have a recession before the next election I don't guess about the stock market there's JP Morgan we built the company people sale systems offices branches Marcus go up and marks go down and you know if you postulate they would have a very good economy for three years ago a private bank you have huge claw huge class that's though I don't allow me to give advice about the market for a very good reason how do you get to four percent when you've heard the rhetoric from every person that and Jamie there are some people god I can't believe they would actually not want to get to three percent but I think they've got a vested interest in it not being possible because their their policies resulted but with immigration in productivity those are the two things the aging population they say 3% is basically impossible long-term how can you get to four percent it's not true we've we've hampered or I've said this for years we've had two percent growth which is kind of below normal for eight is long but it's half of a normal recovery we've had 16 percent it should have been like 32 and the reason for that is uncompetitive taxes excess regulation lack of infrastructure building our inner city school education doesn't work as a Holden and that's why I was growing slower Edwards would would would want to go like that to you it would be some ad hominem I think Larry might agree that we did all these things right we were growing fast but not in the immigration would be plus two okay how do you get productivity that's already at high level how do you gather you get that back is that capital all productivity technology and in all parts of your company as possible I live two days where we you're gonna see it then people say my god was because what we did it wasn't didn't have to be that will it be a girl in the face of all the Economist's on all the people that say we can't do it I hope there is on those who said we're structurally stuck a two percent forever yes there's none of things around - yeah I'm looking at you - thank you sir what is possible and what makes it possible it's a long term we can grow it three then it's possible yeah well I guess we're gonna hit 4% sometime this year I think the people just they they always look at the past and they think that somehow it has to repeat it doesn't you know I made a list of my Chairman's letter of the things Holdings back and they are extensive and they didn't have to be that way there was us making decisions a long period of time infrastructure is one of those things on the list and we've got all this talk around infrastructure but it sounds like the two sides are pretty far apart yeah the infrastructure again you know you look at the United States this unbelievable country or blessed with everything and yet it takes 12 years to build a bridge the Bayonne Bridge in New Jersey 12 years to a place a bridge was about to fall down because of you know 50 permits and multiple things shame on us that's called bureaucracy and corruption and cinah cure and you know you see it all around the nation we can't build airports we can't build highways we can't build bridges we can't build tunnels we can't build that should be fixed and so with this administration the prior visit I'll try to fix that that's doable and of course that costs us GDP it costs us jobs and it could be done here are Democrats and Republicans have a common objective we but both parties want that and the only question is how you do it now again I'm not an expert or politician they should figure it out in any event everyone has an interest reducing the time to build a bridge from 12 years to - you know Germany I think is Germany and Canada two years to get the permits China's probably one year I mean you think we could aspire to something like that and by that means this whole pipeline of projects that in the works that are taking year after year to be approved so that's kind of that shovel-ready concept you just beat him up you have a lot of projects out there we've had lots of conversations recently about cryptocurrency we had a conversation the fall about Bitcoin you've switched your view a little bit on this I think you all have said enough I'm not this anymore you guys you guys the one popping this whole thing you talk about it too much you should stop talking about and go back to something relevant so crypto currency just take it it's not my interest I don't want to be spoken to for or against you we're sort of looking at it you didn't mean to look at my dress I didn't mean look here okay Bitcoin because I have I'm clueless about a lot of things okay different but related my core bad who was here before from City he says the credit cards he thinks are on their way to extinction do you think that's true well it depends we means by that the long term yeah but then the long term is going to be on your and a chip and your finger it's gonna be on your phone but somebody but the other pieces do the bank's get disintermediated me do we get to some kind of blockchain like system with it but the third parties are peerless and it but then there's no margin for you but yes that is what corbat meant yeah they're different first up we're gonna lose the business oh no a different entity met a different but look we're we working on that too okay we're not stupid we're working on technologies that make it easier and seamless and painless generally in almost all competitive businesses generally margins come down that's called capitalism so we always prepare for that like don't complain about you deal with it and so you'll see it you have to do things better faster quicker cheaper in every business so and we've got you know you know we got some great credit card product we have some great products coming this year not just these four hundred branches in new markets but we have investing products coming this year and credit card product coming this year and more stuff that you could do on the phone digital with mortgage with credit card with your basic banking account some of those things be linked up so what still the other big banks that you think are doing well with FinTech I'm gold we're gonna have lloyd blank line on they've invested in some fin tech stuff but how do you have you sort of when you look at your traditional competitors yeah so we've invested in you have them with everybody are different companies now you look again technology this is not new you use technology do a better job your customers if you don't you lose that was true thirty years ago twenty years ago ten years ago I think it's faster today they're more competitors today I do think in the payment systems at the one place that someone may come in and disrupt something so you know we try to be very conscious by both in the consumer side and we call the wholesale side but then again you know we're using it to we're building blockchain type stuff we're getting faster quicker these big new computers it Ginny was talking about help yeah I think she 14 C 14 I'm gonna get what I'm gonna wait for this we have a whole bunch of z14 what color are that did it come in blue I think they come just in black I don't know I want a blue one so Dahlia was on he says just a paraphrase I think he kind of said that 4 percent is the new 8 percent in terms of where we'd need to worry about dislocation and in actually not restraints yeah being able to service the debt that we've built up I guess my question is we kind of think that it's clear clear sailing for the Fed they orchestrated the the you know recovery from the financial crisis they blew out the balance sheet but we're gonna be fine and in sort of reversing it is everything gonna be okay I think it's very hard to say that the Fed made it fine by nine or was benign easy for the Fed to deal with so you know the next Fed Chairman may not have a benign environment deal with so as long as you have but the most important is growth so it's not just where the rates are going up is growth hey if you have healthy growth and rates are going up the economy wouldn't scare you in terms of know what about five no the world should expect four percent maybe in five percent and you know some you you if you were a borrower you should be very careful to have too much interest rate exposure in trading mismatch or currency mismatches all that kind of stuff or too much leverage you know which I think you know there's less than people think in the system relative to years ago if you just compare everything other than governments by the way and governments can do with it easier than corporations can or individuals Jamie I won't that's good that just doesn't sound nearly as it is is I mean I think Dalia was that I was very concerned warning right a little warning about because if interest rates go up by 25 50 75 percent even if us so awful low base he thinks that's a bit jolting yeah it is but again consumers are in very good shape and you know credit card balances are still not unbelievably high all credit extended the United States has been almost super prime mortgages credit card the subprime components much less middle market companies in very good shape small business comes in very good shape large corporations generally if you look at their balance sheets are in pretty good you know most some heads there in straight exposures doesn't like throughout that they're betting an interest rate so uh but look if you have eventually you might have grow slowing down inflation going up rates going up yeah someone's gonna get hurt what and that happens in life you know and again my job at Jake Moore's bill the company serve the clients I completely understand the weather may change yeah I don't spend a lot of time guessing about what's gonna happen the weather I just don't know but we try to analyze what kind of stuff I mean we're sitting here and just about everybody talked to everything is going gangbusters look great on just about every level and every country around the world and that's when surprises can sneak up if there was something you did have to worry about what what would it be yeah so first of all it's like we can't believe that you're doing so well I mean you should be happy in a long 10 years it's been a long 10 years and this is gonna help citizens around the world and remind people we could have good growth and we're mindful of a good policy will it lead to good growth and of course they're gonna be things that disrupt it don't some time around the corner I don't see any pothole but you know I can't see but I acknowledged I may not be able to see the pothole but I can't see any pothole like you had in 2006 a huge leverage in funds in see do something how are you doing now in subprime and nothing like that is taking place you don't have that kind of leverage or exposure in the system but it doesn't mean that rates can't go up that which sets can't go up that inflation can't go up surprised people I mean if it happens I mean am I gonna be surprised not really telling you can happen so he said no it might happen here's this smart guy this smart guy it's made a lot of money one of the best investors around he says you only Democrat not gritting his teeth if you run in 2020 hole low for you that's with this I don't plan to so what do you mean don't okay so that absolutely not no huh I don't plan to I don't you know you're gonna get this question for the next 18 that's fine I don't make promises to anyone but I don't plan through not run for Congress I don't think i'ma pull data type I would say over the last six months many of your friends off the record and whatnot have been whispering much more than ever before that some may say what's going on with Jamie is he planning on running what he's doing quite fine thank you I appreciate your concern and also before I let you go we wouldn't get a little inside take on what's now being called this this pre Davos party that took place on Monday in in Paris Versailles in Versailles Harris and Versailles so what happened war Davos right well you know president McCrone he was wise I mean he knows people come to Davos so he had a function which he said he's gonna do every year and stuff like that and he spoke for two hours of two and a half hours and about mostly about policy you know he'd probe business pro capital labor reform and knowing that all these things will help the average French citizen say talk about trade talk about China you know he's he's a he's done a lot of things in eight months and so you know after brexit we were all for him but we might have the Europe have to brags it you instead of Hollande you get McCrone and so uh that's the first state dinner to you saw that right I saw they're gonna have that April yeah and interesting comments about it if he pulled a Cameron he thinks that France might say freqs it not the drink but I don't think is any chance he was there won't be a very he's very very Pro Europe yeah but he acknowledges that some of the flaws that create some of the concerns and brags that need to be fixed which is exactly the right thing to do and then pull it together fix those flaws and make the common market stronger you know make the regulations better you know they do need some pan-european entities to manage like the banks and stuff like that so he's doing all the right stuff so you won't you're not running in France either I guess that I'm not writing friendship not running but but he they have made France I mean you talk about a bank their tax rates are going to twenty five percent they're not gonna have a wealth tax on people they want people to move they are relieved about it is unbelievable and they're gonna make it a very attractive and Paris as you know is attractive to start with including education and so an infrastructure and universities and all these various things so I think this is a great go
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