저자: 개발몽 · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥이 20일선에 닿아 '풀 매매법'의 첫 매수 타이밍이라고 주장. 엔비디아·반도체 급락은 과열 조정으로 보고 건전하다고 평가. CPI 발표 이후 시장 급락 시 저가 매수 기회로 제시하며 유료 멤버십 실시간 매수 정보 홍보. S&P500은 4,800 부근 지지선까지 조정 가능성을 언급하며 분할 매수 준비를 권유. 장기적으로 강세장 초기라는 견해 제시.
다듬은 글
had bought together at the 20-day moving average, which is the first buying timing for this trading strategy, you would have been able to buy at this year's low. Hello, this is Develop Mong, a long-term investor in the 'Pool' . My direct investment in the US is currently showing a 74% return with a profit of 125 million KRW, while my domestic account is showing a 65% return with a profit of 7.7 million KRW.
Additionally, including currency gains and Bitcoin profits from my second account, I am currently seeing a total profit of approximately 200 million KRW. Now, Daylight Saving Time in the US began yesterday. Therefore, the market opens at 5 PM instead of 6 PM, and the regular session has been moved up from the previous 11:30 PM to 10:30 PM.
Please note that the market closing time has also been moved up by one hour, closing at 5 AM. Looking at today's US stock market, it felt like a quiet wait-and-see attitude ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 9:30 PM tonight. However, the Nasdaq fell 0.4%, marking the strongest point in this year's bull market.
The support line has touched the 20-day moving average, which is the first mass timing point for the "Pond" trading method. Looking at today's map, the reddest meta stock stands out. This meta stock has plummeted by a whopping -4%, and this is due to presidential candidate Trump. Trump recently expressed sudden opposition to the TikTok ban bill.
Upon examining why he opposed it, he argued that banning TikTok would allow Facebook, which committed fraudulent acts in the last election, to grow unrivaled. The reason Trump fits the meta is due to his re-election campaign four years ago. At that time, Facebook removed Trump's ads to prevent disruption, and since then, the ill-fated relationship between Facebook and Trump has continued, culminating in a block by Facebook in 2021.
You can consider that now, four years later, Trump is taking revenge for what happened back then. Now, if we check the stocks that dropped significantly yesterday, we can see the semiconductor, Amazon, and Nvidia meta stocks. The common characteristic of these stocks is that they are the ones that have risen significantly since the start of this year.
Specifically, Amazon is included in the Nvidia meta. So, what are the stocks that performed the worst? They are Google, Apple, and Tesla. I... Regarding Friday's market plunge, I stated that if a cyclical market unfolds where underperforming stocks rise and those that have risen significantly fall, the market might not drop as sharply as expected due to the rotation of these stocks.
Looking at the US stock market on Friday and yesterday, Apple, Google, and Tesla rose for two consecutive days. In other words, you can view the current situation as a cyclical market where profits are being taken on stocks that have risen too much and buy at the dip on stocks that have fallen too much.
Under these circumstances, even if the stocks that have risen significantly drop, the stocks that have fallen heavily will rise and hold their ground, so the US market may not fall as sharply as anticipated. Furthermore, before Friday's plunge, I filmed a video warning against being complacent about the correction; immediately after that, the market plummeted, with the Nasdaq being the first to finally touch the 20-day moving average yesterday.
For us, the 20-day moving average signifies the first mass timing for the "Pond Trading Method" and is the strongest resistance moving average for the Nasdaq this year. In fact, if you look at this year's chart, if you had recognized the "Pond Trading Method" at the 20-day moving average—the first buying timing—you could have bought at this year's lows.
And yesterday again... It touched the 20-day moving average and showed signs of rebounding. Naturally, I provided real-time buy information for the "Puddle" trading method on the membership Telegram early this morning. I felt incredibly lucky, especially seeing the timing for a takeoff in US stocks come about in reverse just as Bitcoin began its takeoff.
The select few who seize this opportunity this year are qualified to make their assets jump, and I am confident that anyone wishing to seize that opportunity will not regret joining my membership. Now, looking at the SMP 500 weekly chart, it is drawing a very similar pattern. In the first half of last year, it surged 20% in just four months, and then encountered a correction starting in August.
From the correction low in October until now, it has surged another 20% in about four months, and I have a feeling that a dip is imminent. Of course, it is impossible to predict how far it will fall, nor is it possible to predict when it will continue to fall. No one can predict this. However, if you prepare using principles and scenarios, you can buy at a lower price than others.
Currently, the strongest support line that appears conservative is the previous high at the end of 2021. We are currently around the 4,800 point mark. You should be prepared for a potential drop to this level and prepare for staggered buying of stocks. If we adhere to the principle of staggered buying even at the 20-day moving average, we can cope with both opportunities and crises.
Furthermore, we can see that the US stock market has stepped back from extreme greed after undergoing a tedious period of consolidation and a slight decline. In other words, such a natural correction is essential; only then can it rise again. The US stock market line represents the most reliable asset we can invest in: a gradual upward trend while repeating ups and downs.
Now, regarding whether it will fall further or rebound from the 20-day moving average, there is a high probability that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be determined tonight at 9:30 PM. Currently, headline forecasts predict a 0.4% rise in CPI and a 3.1% year-over-year increase, remaining unchanged from last month.
Looking at the CPI forecast, which the Fed considers more important, a slight slowdown is expected compared to the previous month, with a slowdown of 3.9% and 3.7% year-over-year. The most critical aspect here is whether the results align with these expectations. Also, market interpretation is more important than the announcement results themselves.
It is important. When the CPI was announced last February, the US and China markets plummeted 3% from their peaks. And what choice did we make? A very small number of our Woongjinro members and Joa members mustered the courage to consolidate at that time. In hindsight, it was an excellent choice. I believe the same will happen this time.
If the market plunges following today's CPI announcement, I cannot predict how far or for how long it will fall, but I consider it an opportunity to buy at a low price. That is why I am telling you that you must seize this opportunity. If you want to refer to my buying decisions in real-time, you can join the Mem membership to take advantage of this opportunity.
Now, to summarize the current situation, we can see that Nvidia, the leading stock of the AI-driven bull market that began in 2023, has fallen significantly with a long bearish candle accompanied by high trading volume. Furthermore, this was not limited to Nvidia; the entire semiconductor sector, which had surged alongside it, has also plummeted.
There was also the impact of the earnings reports from Marvell and Broadcom. We could observe to some extent that not all semiconductor companies benefit; rather, even semiconductor companies are experiencing a polarization of benefits due to AI. We can infer that this was used as an excuse for profit-taking selling pressure to emerge, leading to the sharp decline.
Also, Why has Nvidia dropped so much? Of course it should drop. If you look at Nvidia's returns for 2023, it recorded a whopping 240% return, rising 3.4 times, making it the undisputed number one among SMP 500 companies. The same applies to its performance this year. We can see it has risen 80% in just three months, and it is once again leading the SMP 500 companies this year.
In other words, having risen this much, shouldn't it naturally fall for a while? Then there will likely be comments saying that Nvidia's recent sharp decline is similar to the initial crash of the dot-com bubble. However, I do not think so. First of all, Nvidia is proving itself with its earnings. Revenue is expected to continue increasing, and the highest revenue and profit growth rates are guaranteed.
However, as Cathie Wood said, competition may intensify and AI investment may gradually decrease. Nevertheless, given that Nvidia is currently the unrivaled beneficiary of AI, I believe this is a healthy correction for Nvidia. And if there are those who judge that it will crash similarly to the dot-com bubble...
If you are there, you just need to increase your holdings against the downward-trending Won and Dollar and wait for a crash. The outcome of each of our lives is the result of the choices we make. Whether you hold dollars thinking like the Dacom bubble, hold assets thinking like Develomong, and invest based on Develomong membership information, the results of those choices unfold in the future.
I chose to hold onto my assets and am investing with a view to the period after 2030. And we will know the results then. So far, my financial assets of 100 million won three years ago have grown to 500 million won three years later. This is all the result of my choices. If I had chosen Tesla, which was the hottest stock at the time, the outcome now would be different.
Everything is the result of my choices. So far in March, while it hasn't been a major dip, a tedious period of consolidation and some minor adjustments are underway. Tonight's Consumer Price Index looks very important. This is data regarding the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts, and since rate cuts increase liquidity, it is a crucial factor for assets we invest in, such as US stocks and Bitcoin.
Therefore, although I am anxious right now, I am praying for a positive result. The point being made is that we hope interest rate cuts will at least not be delayed. So, we should study how far the market typically drops and prepare ourselves accordingly. If we look at market corrections in the US, the fact is that the market corrects by an average of -1% from its peak to its lowest point.
In other words, we should be prepared for the possibility of a 15% correction at any time. And if a correction does occur, I view it as a buying opportunity at a low price. Based on all past data, I believe we are currently in the early stages of a bull market. Unless there is an economic recession or a resurgence of inflation, it is highly likely that the bull market will continue.
Therefore, you should adopt the mindset that it is good to be able to buy when a dip comes, and you must actually summon the courage to take action. If you had scooped up at the bottom after the Lehman Brothers crisis on March 9, 2009, your assets would have increased tenfold 15 years later, even without using a leveraged ETF.
That is how important buying low is. That is why I recommend picking up at small dips. I emphasize that if a big dip comes, you just need to invest more. Along with this, what is it that I emphasize? It is time. The data we are looking at this time represents the purchase made at the peak on October 9, 2007, before the Lehman Brothers crisis, not the lowest point in March 2009.
Even if you had invested back then, if you have continued to invest your precious years until now, your assets have grown 4.5 times over the past 15 years. In other words, no matter how the worst-case scenario unfolds, if you and I invest our precious years, we can eventually grow our assets. However, there are investors who buy even a little bit of gold at a low price.
Why is it important to scoop up at a dip? Because even if you invest for a longer period, buying at the peak only increases your assets 4.5 times, but scooping up at a dip allows them to rise more than double. That is why, if you look at successful investors, they do not make fixed-price purchases at just any time; instead, they buy cheaply at dips when prices have dropped.
This is because theory and reality are different, so they invest using the best method in real-world investing. To do so, you must know how to ignore pessimism. Because... Forming a puddle signifies that some negative event has occurred. Discussing CPI forecasts tonight, men... Interest rates or expectations could fade, and many negative factors will likely latch on, such as inflation resurgence or the entrenchment of inflation.
You must be able to ignore them and show courage. And that is one of the factors determining investment success. Furthermore, the formation of a puddle means that my account will temporarily decline. This will be the poor short-term performance that Charlie [ __ ] spoke of. However, you must summon courage at this moment, because it is to achieve outstanding results in the long run.
This means that ultimately, we cannot go along with the majority. These days, please do not boast to those around you just because stock prices are rising or Bitcoin is going up. Most people will be envious and jealous. Because that is human nature, you must fight a lonely battle. How much you must want to brag!
Nevertheless, you must hold back for the sake of your social life. That is why we need a tiny minority—you and me—Woongjin-ro, and a small community on my channel where we can boast and cheer together in the comments. I am personally leading the way in front of you, actually showing courage, and actually utilizing my precious time.
So please join me in this lonely struggle. I hope to meet you in 2030 when we are rich. .
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