저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 엔비디아·마이크론에 대한 숏 포지션을 늘리고 드래프트킹스·플러터 엔터테인먼트를 매수했다는 주장을 반박하는 영상. 엔비디아·마이크론은 74%/73% 매출총이익률, 매출 성장률 71%/167%, 애널리스트 상향 조정 우위를 보이는 반면, 드래프트킹스·플러터는 낮은 수익성과 하향 조정 추세. 마이크론 밸류에이션(선행 PER 약 12.7배)이 가장 저렴하다고 평가. 결론적으로 두 베팅 기업이 더 비싸고 약하다고 판단.
다듬은 글
I'm betting against renowned investor Michael Bury because I believe my research is credible and the numbers support my position. In this video, I will present a comparison of two stocks that Michael Bury buys and two that he sells short. I want you to rate this comparison and share your verdict in the comments at the end of this video.
Michael Bury is increasing his bearish positions on Nvidia and Micron—two of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure boom. At the same time, he is buying two undervalued betting companies: DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment. So, is Michael Bury spotting another historical " bubble" before anyone else?
Or perhaps he is applying the outdated argument about semiconductor cyclicity to the development of AI, which is fundamentally changing the demand for computing and memory. Let's start the comparison with the profitability profile. Nvidia delivers 74.2% gross margin, 64% EBIT margin, and 63% net margin.
Micron is showing similarly impressive figures: 72.6% gross margin, 65.7% EBIT margin and 55.9% net margin. DraftKings reports the highest gross margin at 76.7%, but almost all of it disappears after covering operating expenses. Their EBIT margin is only 8%, and their net margin is less than 1%. Flutter's performance is even weaker: a negative net margin of 2.2% and a negative free cash flow margin of 5.2%.
The return on capital ratio makes this contrast even more obvious. Nvidia generates 67% return on total capital, while Micron generates 42.6%. DraftKings and Flutter generate only 1.2 % and 1.5%, respectively. These numbers suggest that Nvidia and Micron are turning growth into substantial profits, while Bury's betting picks are yielding limited or negative results.
Now let's move on to comparing growth rates . Micron currently has the strongest growth profile: revenue grew 167% year- over-year and is expected to grow further by 112%. EBITDA grew by 332%, while diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased by 76%. The forecast for future EPS growth is approximately 391%.
Nvidia also continues to show exceptional results . Revenue grew 71%, growth guidance remains above 62%, and diluted EPS increased 111%. Their three-year cumulative growth rates in revenue, EBITDA, and EPS exceed 100%. DraftKings increased revenue by 25.8%, but projected growth is slowing to 16.9% .
Flutter is showing a slower pace: current revenue growth of 18.9%, which is projected to fall to 12.5%. Flutter's projected EPS growth is only 6.8%, and 3- year free cash flow growth is minus 21%. The important takeaway is that Nvidia and Micron combine stronger current growth with significantly higher profitability.
DraftKings and Flutter offer growth , but at a slower pace and based on much weaker financial results. Moving on to the valuation comparison , Micron looks the cheapest relative to expected earnings. It trades at about 12.7 times forward GAAP earnings, which breaks down to six times expected second- year earnings and 5.6 times third- year earnings.
Nvidia trades at 21.9 times forward GAAP earnings and 23 times first-year non- GAAP earnings. That's more expensive than Micron, but still acceptable given the projected 62% growth in revenue and earnings per share (EPS). Its forward PEG ratio is only 0.52. DraftKings trades at nearly 96 times forward GAAP earnings and 251 times trailing earnings.
Its non-GAAP multiple fell to 13.5 for the second year running, but investors are betting heavily on future margin expansion that has yet to be demonstrated. Flutter looks cheap on a non- GAAP basis with a first-year P/E of 17.5, but its GAAP forward P/E is nearly 45. Overall, Micron offers the strongest combination of growth and valuation, while DraftKings looks the most expensive relative to proven profitability.
Now let's discuss earnings revisions. The analytical views are decidedly in favor of Nvidia and Micron. Nvidia received 33 EPS revisions to the upside versus just three to the downside. Income estimates show an even stronger balance: 36 increases and only two decreases. Micron received 26 EPS revisions to the upside and zero to the downside.
It also has 26 upward revenue revisions and no reductions. Both companies have beaten EPS and revenue expectations in all eight reported quarters over the past two years. DraftKings received only one EPS revision to the upside compared to 18 to the downside. The revenue estimates include four increases and 19 decreases.
It has beaten revenue expectations only twice in the last eight quarters. Flutter has no EPS revisions to the upside and nine to the downside. The revenue estimates include only one increase compared to 13 decreases. This suggests that analyst expectations for both sports betting companies are deteriorating, while estimates for Nvidia and Micron continue to rise .
Now let's discuss the strength of the balance. Nvidia has $53.2 billion in cash against $12.8 billion in debt, leaving it with over $40 billion in net cash. Micron has $26 billion in cash and only $6.4 billion in debt, providing nearly $20 billion in net cash. Both companies have current ratios above 3.4, low debt-to-equity ratios of around 6%, and exceptionally strong interest coverage.
Their long-term debt is only about 5% of total capital. While DraftKings holds approximately $1 billion in cash versus $1.9 billion in debt. Its debt-to- equity ratio is 317 %. Its current ratio is only 0.7, and long-term debt is almost 76% of total capital. Flutter has $1.5 billion in cash against $12.6 billion in debt, leaving $11 billion in net debt.
Its current ratio is below 1. Its term liquidity ratio is only 0.43, and its interest coverage ratio is below one. Now let's discuss the estimates of quantum factors. Seeking Alpha's quantum scores identify Micron as the strongest stock in almost every category. It gets an "A" for value, an "A plus" for growth, profitability and momentum, and an "A minus " for earnings review.
Nvidia gets an "A plus" for growth and profitability, but a "D minus" for value. Its performance and earnings outlook ratings are “Underperform,” indicating excellent fundamentals but a less attractive entry price. DraftKings gets an “A plus” for growth , but that advantage is offset by a “D” for value, a “B minus” for profitability, and a “D plus” for earnings momentum and outlook.
Flutter has the weakest overall profile: "C plus" for value, "B plus" for growth, "D plus" for profitability, "D minus" for momentum, and "D" for earnings review. These estimates directly contradict the claim that Bohr's long positions offer better risk-adjusted opportunities than the semiconductor stocks he sells short.
Now let's look at the overall historical return : it is overwhelmingly in favor of Nvidia and Micron. In one year, Micron returned about 77%, while Nvidia returned 13%. DraftKings shares fell by 45%, and Flutter by almost 65%. This contrast becomes even more pronounced over longer periods of time. Over 3 years, Micron has grown by approximately 1290%, and Nvidia by 341%.
DraftKings lost 21%, while Flutter fell 46%. Over 5 years, Nvidia has returned 98%, while Micron has grown by over 1000 %. This compares to losses of 51% for DraftKings and 40% for Flutter. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns, and Micron's huge growth increases the risk of a correction.
However, long-term history shows that Nvidia and Micron have consistently created shareholder value, while DraftKings and Flutter have destroyed it. Now let's discuss recent price dynamics. Micron suffered its biggest drop in 1 month, down about 14%. But this came after an 81% increase in 3 months and a 125% increase in 6 months.
Therefore, its short-term decline looks like a correction after an extraordinary rally. This is not yet evidence that the fundamental trend has changed. Nvidia has been relatively stable, falling about 1% in the month and 6% in 3 months, while remaining in the black in 6 months, YTD, and 1 year. DraftKings is up 4% in 3 months, but remains down almost 20% in 6 months and 30% year-to-date.
Flutter is up 7.4% over the last month, but remains down 39% over 6 months and 51% year-to-date. DraftKings and Flutter's short-term rebounds have not corrected their long-term downtrends. So , do you want to open short positions on Nvidia and Micron or buy on dips? Let me know what you think in the comments.
And here is my verdict. DraftKings trades at around 96 earnings per share (P/E) for the past year and around 26 on a forward basis. This is still above the market average. The company also has a history of earnings volatility and disappointing quarterly results. Although Flutter shares have fallen by about 60% over the past year, a price drop does not automatically create value.
Its revenue growth is expected to slow to single digits. Analysts have repeatedly lowered earnings forecasts, and at the time of writing, quantitative ratings system Seeking Alpha assigns the stock a “sell” rating and warns of a high risk of underperformance . Meanwhile, Nvidia and Micron continue to show extraordinary revenue growth, record profits, huge cash flows, and strong future projections.
Both companies, Nvidia and Micron, trade at significantly lower multiples than DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment.
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