저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현재 기술주 급락은 'SaaS 아포칼립스 2.0'처럼 과도한 공포이며, 지금은 매도가 아니라 저가 매수 기회라는 주장. [시장 배경] 금리(신용 수익률) 불안, 선거 잡음, 섹터 로테이션이 겹쳐 나스닥100이 5% 이상 하락하고 S&P500은 이번 달 마이너스로 전환. 반도체·메모리·하드웨어 공급망 주도주는 15~25% 급락. [발언 요지] - 데이터센터 규제·지연이 혁신을 막는 핵심 리스크이며, 미국은 30년 만에 처음으로 기술 측면에서 중국을 앞서 있다고 진단. - 다음 주 하이퍼스케일러 실적 발표가 시장을 진정시킬 것으로 봄. 메타 실적은 괜찮았지만 안도감을 주지 못했고, 메타가 다음 주 발표 시 주가 상승을 예상. - 뉴욕 택시기사조차 기술 섹터에 비관적이어서 긴장 국면이라고 평가하나, 출구 버튼을 누를 때가 아니라고 강조. [언급 종목 및 방향] - CRDO(Credo Technology): 10월 33% 하락, 52주 고점 대비 약 52% 하락. 분기 매출 115% 성장, 순이익률 약 50%, 무부채. 연간 성장률 상향 85% 이상. 선행 PER 약 25.8배. 저평가 매수 기회로 제시. - CLS(Celestica): 10월 33% 하락 후 약 260달러, 52주 고점 대비 45% 할인. 분기 매출 62% 성장(47억 달러), 연간 매출 270억 달러 이상 전망, 선행 PER 20배 미만. 브로드컴 AI 매출 기회 3,500억 달러(FY2028) 수혜. - LITE(Lumentum): 10월 33% 하락 후 약 756달러, 52주 고점 1,143달러 대비 하락. 광부품 생산능력 2029년 초까지 매진, 분기 매출 110% 성장(10억 달러 이상), 매출총이익률 50.4%, 순현금 11억 달러. 2027 회계연도 매출 성장 70~80% 전망, PEG 1.0 미만. 엔비디아 Spectrum-X 광학 플랫폼 공급 파트너십. [리스크] 정치·금리 변수로 단기 변동성이 지속될 수 있음. 다만 발언자는 구조적 강세장으로 판단하며 리스크 구체 제시는 부족. [출연자 전망] 단기 반등 및 기술주(특히 AI 인프라) 강세 지속을 낙관. 명시적 목표가는 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Any regulatory restrictions or slowdowns in data centers are what hold back innovation. The US is ahead of China in technological terms for the first time in 30 years . This is the main dilemma right now, but I think the hyperscaler reports next week will calm the market by showing that we... I have to clarify.
Meta and SpaceX's results may have been pretty good, but they didn't reassure anyone. Yes, and I think the reaction to Meta and SpaceX in the coming weeks and months will be seen more as a buying opportunity, given how the market has reacted. I think if Meta reports next week, the stock will go up. I just think it happened at a time of general nervousness.
Now, look, even a taxi driver in New York is pessimistic about the tech sector. We see a lot of nervousness, but I see this as the “ SaaS apocalypse 2.0” and not as a time to hit the exit button. Never mind. What you just heard from Dan Ives is not just market commentary. This is an accurate blueprint of how structural bull markets develop during macroeconomic shocks.
We are witnessing a classic repeat of the SaaS apocalypse scenario that occurred earlier this year . At that time, investors panicked over uncertainty about interest rates, dumped shares of high-tech companies at huge discounts, and watched from the sidelines as these same companies demonstrated explosive growth of hundreds of percent.
Today, history repeats itself. A cocktail of concerns about credit yields, election noise and aggressive sector rotation has sent the Nasdaq 100 down more than 5% and pushed the S&P 500 into negative territory this month. Major market leaders in the semiconductor, memory, and hardware supply chains have suffered brutal declines of 15-25%.
But beneath this superficial panic lies an unprecedented discrepancy between stock prices and fundamental reality. While retail investors flee the market due to short-term fear, the multi-trillion dollar construct continues at full capacity. Hyperscalers’ capital expenditures are expected to exceed hundreds of billions of dollars per year, but market noise has pushed some critical elements of the AI ecosystem down 30-50% from their 52- week highs.
We are talking about three critical players: a leader in ultra-high-speed technologies, a manufacturing partner for tier-one hyperscalers, and a pioneer in the optical interconnects needed for next-generation data centers . All three were crushed in October alone, trading at valuation multiples not seen since the beginning of the cycle.
If you missed the first phase of AI expansion, this rollback offers a rare second opportunity to delve into the structural foundations driving the entire technological revolution. Let's start with the first stock that came into the spotlight during this pullback. Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd., trading under the ticker CRDO.
Credo specializes in high-speed and energy-efficient networking solutions that form the digital backbone of modern AI data centers. Their flagship active electrical cables allow hyperscalers to seamlessly connect thousands of power-hungry GPUs , providing a significant advantage in power efficiency and signal stability.
Despite a sharp 33% drop in October, which saw the stock fall more than 52% from its 52-week peak of $308.67, Credo's fundamentals remain remarkably strong. The company reported record revenue for the first fiscal quarter, up 115% year-over-year, marking its seventh consecutive quarter of triple-digit revenue growth while maintaining an impressive net margin of nearly 50%.
Looking ahead, management raised its annual growth forecast to over 85%, supported by expanding revenue streams from optical solutions, which are expected to exceed $600 million thanks to transceivers, silicon photonics, and optical DSPs. In addition to its core connectivity business, Credo is developing the Omni-Connect memory gearbox platform, which can generate $2,000 to $3,000 in additional revenue per GPU, helping cloud providers connect large amounts of cheaper memory directly to AI processors.
Unlike companies with high debt loads, Credo operates debt-free, with $90.2 million in operating cash flow versus just $7.3 million in capital expenditures, allowing it to self- finance its massive expansion . Trading at a forward P/E of approximately 25.8 relative to consensus earnings estimates for 2027 and with a growth rate of over 85%, this temporary price distortion demonstrates a significant disconnect between short-term market sentiment and the company's long-term dynamics.
Moving on to our second powerhouse player at a significant discount—Celestica Inc., trading under the ticker symbol CLS. Celestica is a fundamental titan in hardware and design, working at the heart of global AI development. Celestica specializes in high-density rack integration and advanced switching systems, working directly with giants like Google, AMD, and custom chip developers to design and implement AI hardware for next- generation data centers.
The stock has been hit hard during recent macroeconomic volatility, falling more than 33% in October to around $260.01, and is now trading at a 45% discount to its 52- week high of $474.02. However, this pullback creates a striking gap between Celestica's market price and the explosive demand throughout its supply chain.
The fundamental driver of Celestica's growth is the massive multi-year acceleration in the AI networking industry. Semiconductor giant Broadcom recently predicted a staggering $350 billion in AI revenue opportunity by fiscal year 2028, driven by custom processors and high-speed switches. This is a market expansion in which Celestica is the primary manufacturing and co- design partner.
To ride this wave, Celestica is ramping up 10 active 1.6 T switching applications and launching its DS6005 shared optics platform, which integrates Broadcom 's latest Tomahawk 6 silicon to deliver unprecedented throughput and significant power savings for large-scale AI clusters . Financially, the company continues to operate at full capacity, showing revenue growth of over 62% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, reaching $4.7 billion.
With analysts forecasting annual revenue to top $27 billion in fiscal 2027 and forward P/E multiples falling to less than 20 times expected earnings —well below previous cyclical highs of over 40— Celestica stands out as a prime candidate for investors looking to profit from the physical buildout of AI infrastructure.
Finally, completing our list of underrated AI infrastructure leaders is Lumentum Holdings Inc. , which trades under the ticker LITE. Lumentum is a pioneer in optical technologies, manufacturing high-speed lasers, transceivers, and optical switches needed to transport massive data streams through modern AI data centers.
As dense GPU clusters make legacy copper cabling unnecessary, optical communication lines have become an absolute necessity to prevent performance bottlenecks and reduce power consumption. Despite falling more than 33% in October to around $756.17 and a significant pullback from its 52-week peak of $1,143, the fundamentals of demand for Lumentum's products have never been stronger.
Management recently confirmed that optical component manufacturing capacity is fully sold out by early 2029, with a severe supply shortage of 70% for critical product lines. Driven by a rapid transition to 1.6 terabit transceivers , high-performance lasers, and shared-optics architectures, Lumentum delivered 110% year-over-year revenue growth in the latest quarter, exceeding $1.01 billion in quarterly sales with ahead-of- schedule gross margin growth to 50.4%.
The company has an extremely strong balance sheet with $1.1 billion in net cash, allowing it to self- finance a major capacity expansion in Japan without diluting shareholder equity or raising expensive debt. Analysts predict that revenue growth in fiscal 2027 could approach 70-80%, underpinned by multi-year supply contracts with large hyperscalers and key partnerships such as providing Nvidia's Spectrum-X optical platforms.
With free cash flow growing rapidly and the stock trading at a growth-adjusted PEG ratio well below 1.0, Lumentum represents an extraordinary asymmetric opportunity for forward-thinking technology investors. While market volatility and short-term news headlines create temporary fear, structural bull markets are built on fundamental performance.
Credo, Celestica, and Lumentum offer the necessary infrastructure for the AI revolution at deep discounts. Don't let this second chance to buy pass you by. Subscribe now and share your thoughts in the comments below.
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