저자: EdYardeni외진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 조정은 '버블'이 터지기보다 빠지는 건강한 재조정이며, 채권시장이 AI 자본 배분을 선별하면서 투기적 과열이 걸러지는 중이라는 주장. [시장 진단] 1999년 닷컴 때 기술주 선행 PER는 S&P500 대비 48배 이상이었으나, 현재 기술 섹터 선행 PER는 약 28~30배로 훨씬 안정적이고, 대형 기업들이 연간 3,000억 달러 이상의 잉여현금흐름을 내고 있다고 설명. [AI 생태계] 화자는 AI 인프라 투자에 대한 과도한 자금 유입과 경쟁 후 기업 도산이 산업혁명의 일반적 패턴이라며 단기 차질은 있겠지만 구조적 붕괴는 아니라고 봄. 앤트로픽 상장 등으로 생태계 기업들이 서로 돕는 구조도 언급. [추천 종목 1: 세일즈포스(CRM)] 앤트로픽 Claude와 결합, Braze 인수(56억 달러)로 마케팅 자동화까지 확장. 연간 영업현금흐름 157억 달러, FCF 마진 40%, 선행 PER 15배 미만으로 저평가. 성장률은 구독매출 11% 수준이나 멀티 복귀 여지 제시. [추천 종목 2: 팔란티어(PLTR)] 매출 전년비 93% 성장, 조정영업이익률 62%, Rule of 40 지표 155%. 미국 상업부문 매출 149% 성장(7.64억 달러), 달러 기준 순유지율 157%. 현금 및 단기 국채 92억 달러, 데이터센터 임대 부채 없음. 엔비디아가 Vera Rubin 공급망 관리에 팔란티어 플랫폼 채택 사례 언급. 프리미엄 밸류에이션은 지속적 실행을 전제로 한다는 단서 포함. [추천 종목 3: 네비우스(NBIS)] 최근 한 달 고점 대비 약 34% 하락한 AI 전문 클라우드 기업. 현금 25억 달러 이상, 순부채 21.5억 달러로 재무구조가 동종 대비 양호하며, 고객 선급금으로 자본지출의 50~60% 자체 조달. 최근 분기 매출 5.82억 달러(전년비 454% 성장), 연말 매출 70~90억 달러, 조정영업이익률 40% 가이던스 제시. 마이크로소프트·메타와 장기 계약 보유. [리스크·조건] 고금리 및 높은 자본지출 우려가 밸류에이션 부담으로 작용할 수 있으며, 화자는 프리미엄 멀티플에는 지속적 실행이 필요하다고 명시. 특정 시점 가격 목표는 제시되지 않음. [출연자 전망] 전반적으로 AI 관련 조정을 매수 기회로 보는 낙관적 시각. 단기 등락 예측 수치는 없고 장기 투자 관점 위주.
다듬은 글
I think that air comes out of the " bubble" without bursting it, and this is the best solution to all these concerns. I think the fact that credit markets, especially the bond market, are starting to be very selective about what rating a particular bond should receive . I think they act even faster than rating agencies, and that's a good thing.
If the bond market regulates the availability of capital for the AI industry, I think we'll be fine. Every technological and industrial revolution is always accompanied by the influx of a large amount of capital indiscriminately, simply because of the fascination with the concept. And then there is excessive competition, companies start to close, and borrowers notice that lenders are becoming much more cautious.
So, again, I think there will be some setbacks, but it's an ecosystem. It's kind of like a brotherhood where they'll all help each other. Well, you know, Anthropic will go public, they'll have a lot of cash, and if they need to help Neocloud, they'll do it. Market veteran Ed Yardeni gets to the heart of today's market anxiety.
While sensational headlines warn of the dot-com crash of 1999 , the real data tells a very different story. At the peak of the dot-com era, technology stocks reached an incredible forward price-to- earnings multiple of over 48x the S&P 500 , supported by companies with zero revenue and pure speculation .
Today, the tech sector trades at a much more stable forward P/E ratio of around 28x to 30x, backed by trillion-dollar balance sheets generating over $300 billion in annual free cash flow. We are not witnessing an abrupt structural collapse, but a healthy, controlled recalibration. Credit markets are actively intervening as disciplined regulators, enforcing strict capital efficiency and blocking cheap debt for untested concepts.
As a result, the speculative “ bubble” is deflating, and capital is flowing to operational leaders with high cash flow who are turning mass adoption of AI into real productivity. This rational market cleansing quietly separates long-term investments from pure hype, creating a historic entry point for three specific market leaders.
The first is an enterprise software giant that embeds autonomous agents directly into real business processes for immediate monetization without large debts. The second is a powerful defense and analytics company that is transforming its massive enterprise platform into explosive operating income growth of over 40% by solving pressing customer problems.
Finally, despite a sharp 40% pullback this month on concerns about high infrastructure costs, the third company is a promising specialized cloud provider with a huge $37 billion order book and multi-billion dollar deals that make it an indispensable engine of the AI hardware ecosystem. First on our list of market leaders is Salesforce Inc., ticker CRM, the undisputed titan of enterprise cloud software, proving that artificial intelligence doesn't make traditional software giants obsolete.
They are evolving to dominate this field. When the AI boom first began, market panic sent software valuations plummeting to multi-year lows amid fears that autonomous AI agents would replace licenses for corporate users. However, Salesforce demonstrated a masterclass in capital allocation. Rather than spend tens of billions of dollars building large language models from scratch , management forged a powerful strategic alliance with Anthropic, combining Claude's advanced reasoning architecture directly with Salesforce's massive enterprise data distribution ecosystem.
Now Salesforce is moving from defensive integration to full-scale offensive, announcing the acquisition of marketing engagement leader Braze for $5.6 billion. This creates a holistic three-stage AI architecture. Salesforce's data cloud aggregates the history of consumer behavior. Anthropic's Claude autonomous agents analyze data and instantly generate personalized suggestions.
And Braze acts as a real-time execution mechanism, sending trigger messages via mobile apps, SMS, and WhatsApp. This transforms marketing from a costly agency service to an automated and profitable driver for corporate clients. Financially, Salesforce is a true cash-generating powerhouse , generating over $15.7 billion in annual operating cash flow and having a 40% free cash flow margin.
Despite 11% overall subscription revenue growth driven by the Data 360 and Slack segments, the stock trades at an incredibly attractive forward P/E of under 15x, a significant discount to the software sector median. Wall Street is mistakenly pricing Salesforce as a slowing value stock, ignoring the acceleration of its software pipeline and AI.
As autonomous AI monetization gains momentum, the moderate valuation increase back to historical industry averages signifies significant upside potential for long-term investors. Moving from client software to mission- critical operational analytics, our second company is Palantir Technologies Inc., ticker PLTR, a leader in enterprise AI orchestration at the heart of the market’s quest for quality.
As capital markets become increasingly finicky about funding expensive AI infrastructure, investors are shifting their focus to high-margin software platforms that actively transform raw models into real workflows. Palantir functions as a mission-critical operating system that connects complex enterprise data, advanced models, and real-time task execution.
A prime example of this is Nvidia's choice of Palantir's AIP and Foundry platforms to manage the massive supply chain of its Vera Rubin architecture, coordinating over 1.3 million parts across thousands of suppliers. From a financial perspective, Palantir's operating dynamics are exceptional. The company recently reported an impressive 93% year-over-year growth in total revenue , alongside an adjusted operating margin of 62%, lifting its “rule 40” ratio to a global level of 155%.
Growth is being aggressively driven by the U.S. commercial segment, where revenue soared 149% year-over-year to $764 million, driven by a 157% dollar revenue retention rate as existing customers rapidly scale their software usage. Importantly, Palantir has an extremely strong balance sheet with over $9.2 billion in cash and short-term treasury obligations and zero data center lease obligations, meaning that reducing the cost of AI computing and tokens directly increases gross margins rather than reducing revenue.
In addition to commercial expansion, Palantir is benefiting from the global growth of sovereign AI as governments and international institutions demand secure, localized AI deployments. With a $4.9 billion total contract portfolio and a network of deployment partners such as Fujitsu and Bain that bear integration costs, Palantir reveals structural operating leverage.
While premium valuation multiples require consistent execution, Palantir's undisputed category leadership, highly profitable software economics, and continued enterprise adoption solidify its position as a significant long-term winner in AI. Moving from enterprise orchestration to the physical infrastructure layer, our third stock is Nebius Group NV, ticker NBIS, a leading specialized cloud provider for AI, representing an attractive contrarian opportunity after a sharp sell-off in the sector.
Recently, broader market concerns about rising interest rates and high capital spending have caused a sharp pullback in high-beta AI infrastructure stocks, with Nebius shares down about 34% in the past month from their highs. Loud commentary warning of serious consolidation among over 200 specialized cloud providers fueled this panic.
However, treating Nebius like its heavily- credited competitors ignores a fundamental reality. Nebius has one of the cleanest and most stable balance sheets in the entire neo-cloud industry. Unlike competitors burdened with high-yielding debt maturing in the near future, Nebius maintains a conservative capital structure , supported by over $2.5 billion in cash, a manageable net debt position of $2.15 billion, and highly advantageous low-cost convertible financing.
Additionally, the company self-finances 50% to 60% of its capital expenditures through upfront customer payments, with payback periods for new GPU deployments reduced to less than two years. These advances from customers finance its massive expansion without forcing the company to turn to predatory debt markets.
Operationally, Nebius is scaling rapidly , reporting 454% year-over-year revenue growth to $582 million in the most recent quarter, driven by full-fledged AI software products and mainstream GPU hosting. Management forecasts annual revenue to reach $ 7 billion to $9 billion by year-end, with a robust adjusted operating margin of 40%.
Thanks to long-term contracts for the use of "bare " iron with giants such as Microsoft and Meta, Nebius has the financial margin necessary to convert large-scale customer commitments into regular cash flow. The recent market pullback provides a very attractive entry point into a key company that is guaranteed to survive the expansion of the AI cloud.
As the hype around AI gives way to balance sheet discipline and proven business performance , these three companies show where smart capital is headed. Whether it's software integration, operational AI, or hardware infrastructure, the focus on real cash flows remains a key advantage. Subscribe to the channel for more in-depth market analysis and share your favorites in the comments below.
Comments 0