저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
STRC 우선주가 $82 부근까지 하락하며 비트코인이 약 $62,000로 밀림. 마이클 세일러/MSTR은 STRC 재페깅을 위해 배당 인상·MSTR 희석 매수 등 선택지가 있으나 희석은 부정적. 미국-이란 협상 연기 등 지정학 불확실성 언급. Tom Lee는 올해 후반 베어마켓처럼 느껴질 급격한 시장 변화를 경고했고, 진행자는 그 근거로 Fed 프레임워크 변화, SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic 상장에 따른 물량 해제, 공급망 부족을 인용. 진행자는 비트코인이 올해 후반 바닥을 칠 것으로 보고 빅테크 저가 매수 기회를 언급하나 당장은 적립식 유지. 마이크론은 과거 50~60% 조정 이력 언급. 영상 중 광고·제휴 링크 다수.
다듬은 글
Wow, uh we have STR C falling down to $82 yesterday. We have Bitcoin sitting right around $62,000 right now, which is a 5% move from hitting new lows. Apparently, Michael Saylor said that he used ChatGPT to come up with STR C. He just used AI to come up with this $15 billion so we'll talk about that.
We'll be going through some different options on what they can do to repeg um STR C. And actually, I'm going to read someone else's suggestion because it's something that I have not suggested yet. Uh we'll also be going through why Tom Lee says that we're actually going to go through something later this year that will feel very much like a bear market.
So we'll be watching that video. He just made this um I think it was yesterday. Of course, the stock market is closed today, so uh we are we're looking at some stuff from yesterday. If you don't mind, hit subscribe so you can see future videos just like this. Also, if you want to trade crypto and you haven't already signed up, check out BTCC underneath the video.
In the link tree, there's a 10% deposit bonus on your first time deposit, and you can start trading all different kinds of assets from Bitcoin to stocks to uh precious metals. There are also lower trading fees when you use my link. There's also a link to Ubit as well. I've really been liking Ubit recently, really good UI.
You can deposit $100 and get a $1,000 position voucher, or if you want to go with the tried and true Bidfy as well, you can check that out. Um every single month we run a promotion where you can get up to $10,000 worth of Bitcoin just for trading on the platform. So not like a whole bunch of random hoops to jump through.
It's just like every single month everyone that's ever signed up can get access to that. So probably the best ongoing rewards of any exchange that I've ever seen. Now, we have news today that the US Iran talks are being called off. Um I saw this once and I thought, "Ah, who you know, maybe it's just some someone trying to create some noise, but no, it like I'm hearing it from all different kinds of people, um all different time frames, too, from 16 hours ago to 4 hours ago.
They've been postponed after Israel launches fresh attacks on Lebanon. Apparently, that was against the MOUs first clause. So, um yeah. I don't I guess at some point, I just think that the US either has to crack the whip probably with Israel or just say, you know, "We can't control them." Like I I yeah, I don't know.
It It's kind of crazy. So, um luckily, this is happening over the weekend, so the stock market isn't really reacting to it. It's not like crypto's really reacting to it too much, either. Um Bitcoin's been sitting around this range since yesterday. So, um not too much news on that front. I guess we'll probably get more over the weekend.
Now, uh I think the main thing that brought down Bitcoin yesterday was STRC. STRC is the preferred stock from MicroStrategy, something that I found very interesting over time that I have not bought. I've described the the reason for that on this channel a lot, which is that I don't want my sideline money to have exposure to crypto or exposure to volatility, crypto risk.
And that's exactly what you're getting with STRC. I mean, it's down 11% um over the last couple weeks, and that's after just yesterday, it came back up from $82. It was under 83 on a couple brokerage platforms I saw. Now, I actually know someone that put in almost six figures, and it's up like six or seven percent.
So, if you bought it now and it re-pegs, like you get 12% appreciation, 13%, and you get an ongoing dividend. So, I mean, great for dip buyers if it goes back up and it can actually stabilize. Like, unbelievable um upside, but but it is limited. It's not like a stock where it could go up 300%. There's like there's a cap to it.
Uh and also, you're buying at a time of real uncertainty going deeper into the bear market. So, yeah, it's definitely a difficult decision for people that have STRC. Do I sell now that it's a discount? Do I just hold it? Do we think that's actually going to re-peg? I've talked about how I think MicroStrategy can go forward with STRC and re-peg it.
There are a couple different options they have. One is to up the dividend, which I don't think makes a lot of sense cuz part of the reason that people are concerned is that they have these ongoing dividend obligations. So, they could raise it to 12% or 13% from 11.5%, make it more attractive. That doesn't necessarily force the price up.
The other thing that they could do is sell Bitcoin to go buy STRC, which they've shown that they're willing to do, but I don't think they'll do that either cuz that'll freak out the market even more. The other thing that they can do, which I think is probably what they will do, is dilute MSTR shareholders and buy back STRC.
I There's a huge jump from $82 and it We were going like straight down at that point. The back to $89. So, I wouldn't be surprised to hear on Monday or Tuesday if this is what they actually did, dilute MSTR shareholders and go buy STRC or increase their reserve, right? They did that recently where MSTR is actually selling at a discount compared to Bitcoin, but they're still diluting.
Now, Ran Neuner from Crypto Banter actually said, "Don't do that. What you should do is nothing. Just go walk away. Like, don't don't increase your dividend. Don't sell MSTR at the money when it's at a discount. No action is better than dilutive action." Which from a mathematical standpoint is correct, right?
He says, "Take the summer off, go on vacation, stop buying, stop raising, let the storm pass." Interesting. So, maybe another option for them. But, let me know your thoughts on that underneath the video. Next week will be super interesting with STRC um because it it's been moving so quickly. Now, we have um we have Tom Lee just going on CNBC and saying that we could see something that feels very much like a bear market.
He's been warning about this for a while. Like he's usually one of the most bullish people on the market, but he said that we could see a bear market later this year. So, let me play this for you and then we'll talk about it. Let me see if I can get loud enough. still believe uh later this year, there is going to be an abrupt change of market conditions, one that feels very much like a bear market.
Um but we don't want to stand and uh call a top. I think conditions are still favorable for stocks. You know, the SpaceX IPO was very successful. And as you know, there's been a cadence of pretty good news coming out of that company. And it is a very small float company with only 90 billion of float.
Um and I think Kevin Warsh uh his view this was actually kind of a a market reaction to his first press conference, but I think that the the real challenge is going to come later this year. So, I I think yes, very much there is going to be a change in market tone, but I think it's too early for people to expect that to happen now.
Well, when you say there's going to be a quote abrupt change of market conditions, I mean, you can't make a statement like that without telling me why you you think that. What what's going to happen? Uh well, I think that there are Sorry, let's say I we can see with pretty good visibility three things happening.
You know, one is that we know markets eventually test, especially if a Fed that's redoing the five, you know, framework with five task forces. I think that's in 2026. The second is that the IPO of SpaceX, today there's very little float, but that's going to unlock later this year in phases along with the IPO of Anthropic and OpenAI.
And the third is that because of just the the disruptions we experienced so far in in of our moves, there is in the supply chain coming shortages. That those are actually the preconditions. I think the fourth catalyst is that speculative firepower runs out. Uh Okay, so let's pause it there for a second there's a lot they said.
Obviously the Strait of Hormuz and Iran, all that we have no idea what's going to happen moving forward. So I I can definitely see that causing some uncertainty because we've already seen that. Right? And now to get to the same levels we were before, I think it would take some kind of escalation, right?
Maybe it's like a ground invasion or something like that. Um cuz we don't get the same level of dip for the same things that happen multiple times in a row. Um of course that can influence oil and can cause company earnings to change. Uh the other thing he said was testing the Fed, right? There's a lot of uncertainty around the new Fed, what they're going to do.
We saw that just this last week. Now it wasn't a huge move, but a couple percent move um because we don't we weren't expecting them to be so hawkish. Um so I guess that's something that we'll have to be paying attention to as well. Uh he he goes on to talk about SpaceX and Anthropic and OpenAI. Um basically that there's going to be a lot of money trying to be raised.
Now SpaceX, everyone thinks about it as this two or three trillion-dollar company. Really with this with how little float there is, it really trades like a hundred billion-dollar, hundred fifty billion-dollar company with a lot of volume, which is what it is because there's there's very little float right now.
So that's why we can see it go up 20% in a day and then go up 20% after hours and then fall back down because it's not it's not widely um traded yet or there's not a lot of float yet. So there are going to be massive unlocks and yeah, people are probably going to take profit. They're probably going to sell a significant amount like people that have been working at the company and people getting shares unlocked.
Now I don't think Elon's going to go out and dump all his shares day one, but yeah, there is going to be some selling pressure for sure. Um because it's up 8x in the last 6 months or something like that from the private rounds. So, yes, there's going to be some selling pressure there. There's going to be a lot money buying um from Anthropic and OpenAI, but I I also think this provides a huge opportunity because right now, there are companies that are at very good prices.
Very, very good prices. Some of the major tech companies. And if more money is flowing out of those to flow into OpenAI and Anthropic and SpaceX, sure, maybe those are great companies to buy, but there's a lot of uncertainty with them. Some people would say they're commodities, at least OpenAI and Anthropic.
And uh they're not super profitable yet. All of these companies are losing money. So, if money's flowing from really great companies that are at low multiples into those companies, that just gives you a very good buying in price. So, yes, I have some money on the sidelines, but I have been deploying pretty aggressively cuz I think they're really good options right now.
But yes, I I will be ready to buy more and more later this year because I think there could be some really good opportunities there. Um that will happen when something's like margin debt, you know, experience levels that are associated with short-term corrections or it could be that you could see a lot of cash move out of the sidelines, but
Okay, so then that's the end of the clip. He said that basically there's a like people run out of money essentially to uh risk on the market. And that could be possible too. Like we've seen that many times in crypto where there's just a liquidation event and money comes out of crypto, right? Um that could happen in the stock market as well.
We know there are a lot of high levered um individuals, especially in other countries, certain countries like a lot of leverage. So, that that could happen. We could see big dips. I just covered Micron on my second channel called the stock channel. I I think I might have a link to it underneath the video, but Micron regularly, every about every other year, goes through a 50% dip.
50 to 60% dip. So, like with some of these quickly growing companies that are up 1,000% this year, they could obviously see a big dip if there's some change in sentiment um and forward outlook. So, yes, there there could be some growth scares. Um some people are expecting that the major CapEx spenders are actually going to say, "We're going to slow down CapEx at some point." And that could scare all the AI stocks and also scare people from those same companies that they're saying are spending too much on CapEx now cuz they could be saying then at that point, "Well, now they're now they're not going to grow as quickly." So, you know, there are people that think either way it's bad for the major hyperscalers, but in general, I think Bitcoin's probably going to bottom later this year.
I think we're going to get some good opportunities to buy tech stocks, but that doesn't stop me from dollar cost averaging now because I don't know that for certain. Let me know your thoughts on all this underneath the video. Let me know what you're doing in today's market. If you do want to trade, you can make the best of any market.
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