저자: My Financial Friend · 외국인
요약 보기
아마존의 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 후 주가가 6.6% 하락했고 시간 외 거래에서는 10%까지 떨어졌다는 내용의 영상이다. 매출은 2,019억 달러로 전년 대비 12% 늘었지만 주당순이익 1.89달러와 함께 예상치를 밑돌았다. 설비투자는 773억 달러로 예상 570억 달러를 크게 웃돌았다. 광고 매출은 196억 달러로 예상치 약 210억 달러에 미치지 못했고, 성장률도 26%에서 10%로 둔화됐다. 반면 AWS는 전년 대비 39% 성장해 460억 달러를 기록했다. 경영진은 2027~2028년에도 40% 이상의 성장을 전망했다. 진행자는 AWS 성장과 영업현금흐름 증가를 근거로 실적 발표 후 아마존 주식을 매수했다고 밝혔다. 다만 이는 개인적 견해이며 영상은 금융 자문이 아니라고 명시하고 있다. 원문은 투자 판단을 본인이 직접 검토할 것을 권한다.
다듬은 글
Amazon just released its earnings report, and the market didn't like it. As you can see, the stock fell by 6.6%, and immediately after the report, the drop reached 10%. I'll sort these numbers out by shelf. Let's talk about whether such a sell-off is justified, what's troubling the market, and what I just did.
Since Amazon is my biggest asset, that's one of the reasons I'm talking about it now . I often talk about the market in general or about Bitcoin, but Amazon is something I've been pushing for years, seeing it as a great opportunity. And at the same time, we just saw a significant drop, right? I mean, during the day the shares fell by 4.25%, and after the close of trading, by 6–12%.
So is it worth buying? We'll talk about it . If it's not difficult, sign up. Let's look here. Let's get straight to the point. Highlights of Amazon's Q3 2026 report. Revenue was 201.9 billion versus the expected 202.3 billion, up 12% from last year. So, we are underachieving our revenue and earnings per share targets.
We received $1.89 versus the expected $1.96, including the profit from Anthropic. So, let's look at the actual profits. They mark several different moments. Net sales increased 12% to 201.9 billion in the third quarter compared to 180 billion. Sales in the North American segment increased by 6% year-on-year.
International sales grew by 5%, and AWS by 39%. That's what everyone wants to know, right? How fast has AWS grown? And it actually exceeded expectations. They expected about 45.4 billion, and the result was 46 billion. Now let's move on to what, in my opinion, the market didn't really like. There are a few points here, but of course, missing the revenue and EPS plan is never good.
While we don't usually see a 10 % reaction due to falling short of the 0.4 billion mark, for Amazon it's very insignificant. This is only a 0.2% deviation from the revenue forecast. So, I think this is one of the big red flags for Wall Street. Capital expenditures amounted to 77.3 billion . And I don't even think that's the main reason for Wall Street's concern.
But the estimate was $57 billion, and they spent $77.3 billion. This is much more than expected. That is, this is more than a third of what they earned in the quarter. Um, and I'm just talking about total income. Um, of course, um, they spend everything they earn and more. Um, their fourth-quarter revenue forecast also came out a bit weaker.
Wall Street expected 244.5 billion, and the average was 243.5. So , about a billion dollars less. Operating income, um, Wall Street was expecting about 33.1 billion, and that's the upper end of their forecast. Um, revenue growth, they expect somewhere between 12 and 16% year-over-year. Um, they didn't quite make it in terms of sales in North America.
They did not keep up with international standards. So, that partially offset, um, or faster- than-expected AWS growth, that's what offset their lower-than- expected net sales. I think this is perhaps the biggest alarm bell for Wall Street, the thing that worries analysts the most. Third quarter figures, advertising.
It amounted to 19.6 billion versus almost 21 billion expected. Okay, so a billion dollars less, um, over a billion dollars. So, they fell short by 6%. Let's take a look at, um, last year's revenue. So we'll just cross out everything except the ads. Keep in mind, advertising has been growing very rapidly, 26%, ahem, and it's one of the most beloved things about Amazon on Wall Street.
It has increased from 17.7 to 19.6 now. So we're talking about a 10% growth rate. Wall Street estimated it at 15%. plus or minus. So, 10% after a 26% increase. I think this is the biggest concern on Wall Street: one of their fastest-growing businesses is being cannibalized by artificial intelligence.
Similar to what we saw with Google, where there were maybe a few different things that Wall Street didn't like. But one of the biggest things was that Google search slowed from 19% growth to 12%. This, I believe, is a big wake-up call for Wall Street. And now, on the other hand, subscription revenues turned out to be slightly higher than predicted.
Their free cash flow is -42.8, -42.4 billion. They say that with respect to Anthropic , they had pre-tax income of $9.5 billion in Q3 2025, included in non-operating income, which increased their EPS. AWS has an annual revenue figure of $184 billion . So, $46 billion. Keep in mind, AWS provided about 21% of their total revenue last quarter alone.
This quarter, it is almost 23%. So it's becoming an increasingly important part of their business every quarter. They talk about Agentic Core, they have tens of thousands of customers, in the third quarter they deployed twice as many agents as before. Um, Alexa for shopping: over 400 million customer interactions, almost 7x more than a year ago.
But this is the craziest thing they said . Our AWS investments in functionality and infrastructure are paying off: Q3 revenue growth of 39% year-over-year, annual revenue growth of $184 billion, and projected revenue growth rates of over 40% in 2027 and 2028. Why is this so important? Well, most companies aren't talking about 2028 yet.
OK. Except, perhaps, some memory manufacturers or companies that have less certainty and are trying to provide it. They say, Amazon says: we're going to grow 40% over the next 2 years. Now, just based on what they did this quarter. Keep in mind, this wasn't the fourth quarter. So actually we would base it on Q4 numbers, but even from where they are now, they are talking about doubling their quarterly AWS revenue over the next 2 years.
So, this will be a huge part of their business. I mean, by that point they'll probably have a trillion dollars in revenue a year. I mean, just based on their growth in AWS, they would have almost a trillion dollars in revenue per year. And this will have very high margins in the future. So why is Wall Street, why is Wall Street selling off stocks?
Well , again, I think it's pretty obvious. First, they simply didn't meet the targets. OK. They fell short in both revenue and profits. Even if it's insignificant, Wall Street notices it. Second, capital expenditures were much higher than expected. Maybe they are uneven. They will likely provide clarification during the conference call.
They also gave a rather weak forecast, weaker than Wall Street expected. Everything in the business was growing slower than expected, in fact. I shouldn't have said that. Their sales, their retail sales, have been growing slower than expected, and they're also, um, just crashing in advertising. It is growing much slower than expected, and people are worried that this high-margin part of their business will disappear.
Just like, um, search, right? He grew more slowly. To be clear, I don't think it will disappear by any means, but it could definitely be supplanted a bit by AI and agent shopping. Personally, I still think it will grow, just more slowly than we have seen in the past. Okay. Now about the positive aspects.
As I said, AWS is growing incredibly fast. For a business with nearly $200 billion in revenue per year, 40% growth over the next few years is incredible. This is simply unprecedented . And apart from Nvidia and a few other AI players, there are no more such companies. Is n't that right? Which can grow on such a scale.
However, it is worth noting that Meta shares have recently fallen sharply. Google has also recently suffered a major setback. Microsoft initially rose, but went down during the day. Wall Street doesn't like the direction these cloud giants are going and their current situation. They don't like the costs, they don't like the growth and the cannibalization of their core businesses.
Personally, I buy. I bought Amazon stock after that earnings report before I even recorded this video. After analyzing their numbers, I am very impressed with what they have been able to achieve in terms of AWS growth. This is, in any case, my favorite part of their business. And the fact that it is growing so quickly means that their margins will be very high in the future .
And the fact that they fell 7% when I bought in the aftermarket, after they had already fallen 4% during the day, makes them attractive to me. So, now let's open them again . You can see that they have actually grown a little compared to when I bought them. So, I bought when it was -7% in the aftermarket, and now it's -4%.
Their market capitalization is $2.63 trillion. Let's open them here. We will be able to see everything better. Their PE ratio for the next 12 months is 24.6. This is before their fall in the aftermarket. I don't think it's expensive. I think this company is actually pretty cheap. When you look at their price-to- operating profit ratio—let's open that up.
In fact, we can also open their operating free cash flow or simply operating cash flow. You see that operating profit was 28 billion, which is quite impressive. Turning to operating cash flow , it grew by 29% to 168 billion in the last 12 months compared to 130 billion in the 12 months a year ago. So , if you look at it this way: 168 divided by 130 is an increase of 29%.
This is incredible growth for a company of this scale. So I'm buying. You may see the Bitcoin chart in the background, but I'm buying. And I am satisfied with the results. Let us know what you think about it in the comments below the video. Coinbase is also announcing its earnings today . I saw that they beat expectations significantly on earnings per share, so maybe we'll look into that.
Bitcoin fell a little. If you want to trade stocks or cryptocurrency, check out the links below the video. BitFlyer is a great exchange, you can check it out. Of course, act at your own risk when using leverage, it adds risk, but tell us what you do after the market closes. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.
Please note: this is not financial or legal advice, please do your own research. I will never contact you in the comments or in any other way to convince you to invest in what I invest in or ask you to send me cryptocurrency. Some links under the videos are affiliate links. I may receive a commission, but it doesn't cost you anything extra. Of course, do your own research.
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