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Hey guys, Mike here. So, looks like Jerome Pal went ahead and tanked the market again. At least that's what we're going to hear about. He stepped to the mic today and the market did not like what he had to say, which was the usual of what he has to say. So, nothing different. They just took an advantage and took advantage of, you know, moving us down, clearing some stuff up at the bottom.
We'll go over a level two watch, okay? Okay, if you're looking for a continuation to the downside, did not happen today, but if it does, then maybe you'll get your continuation or we'll do the 11,750th failed breakdown. I guess we have to see cuz remember we are in this window of weakness, right? This area.
Okay, so we'll see if that's going to be the case. Also, we're going to go into Tesla with a big question coming up for it. Like to hear your opinion on that. Amazon got just nailed with news event after news event. And it's amazing when you break a trend line and break a move major moving average how all of a sudden the news starts coming out one thing after the other.
Uh it's always fun to watch them do that. Also going to Nvidia and then we'll go into the high beta stuff. Uh kind of what I've been talking about. But I will start off with this right here as a another load of video for you. So this is where money's been going and this is basically what you see behind the scenes helping uh to hold this whole thing up right here.
You can see where some big money's been flowing, which is no surprise. This is the weekly ETF flows. And you can see where'd it go. Large caps, baby. $21 billion worth. And US broad equities was second, but it was all about the mega caps. And you can see that I mean, Nvidia was running up, right? So was Apple, uh, Tesla, all those.
And when you see what's really helping push this up, did a whole members video on this last week and with a bunch of different things, but two of them was this right here, and this came out yesterday, right? FINRA margin statistics this chart right here which I like and it just continues to run up setting record after record after record and no surprise I mean I think if I'm not mistaken that video even said like it's where margin debt hit the equal or for the first time eclipsed a trillion dollars I believe it was and so again that will help push a market up so it shouldn't be a big surprise then the other one which most people don't think about is foreign ownership of US equities continues to go up I mean billions upon billions flow every month into the stock market, okay, from foreign investments, okay?
Because our stock market is number one. And so that's the way it is. CTAs, they continue to do what? They're not trend setters. They're trend followers. The trend has been up. So, of course, you can see from one month to yesterday to today, you know, as far as the S&P and stuff, they're still going strong right now.
Gold, you can see definitely still going strong. No, no shocker there. And so that continues to kind of hold this thing up. So that's kind of what's been happening behind the scenes. And of course today, you know, nice red candle right here. And you can see I marked this stuff out the other day. Whether whether it happens or not, this is just liquidity be had.
This puts in the discount right there. And then of course down below some more. But it was funny to watch people's reaction cuz you know, obviously you see this is traders. I love this meme right here where they're getting ready sudden for Jerome Pal. And of course he says and the market goes well see you later.
And it tanks. And of course, every like, "Oh my god, this is terrible. It's over." You know? So, but I love that meme. And uh if you're looking for it to continue, right, continuation, you just want to see the prior day low, closed below. Okay, it went below it, right? It wick below it, and then that's where we got the bounce from.
Not once, but twice today. Okay, that's why you saw the bounce. These are massive levels, which of course traders look for all day long to be taken. And usually you'll get a bounce once you take a prior week low, prior day low, that kind of stuff, unless something else is going on. but we couldn't close below it.
So, if we're going to get any kind of continuation, you know, we'll mark this out. I don't know what's going to happen overnight, but it'll be interesting overnight. Maybe if we came up uh took some liquidity up here, right, hit the 0.5 fib, maybe in the gold pocket, and then started coming back down.
If you get a close below this, a daily close below it, then, you know, you could be in business. Maybe it's not going to be another failed breakdown, right? FBD will start calling it because we've had god knows how many uh over the last few months here. And so we'll find out again that that weakness that you know window of weakness is here again that window of weakness I mean we're in it right so we'll see is over uh now one thing that will be the shot heard around the world is this triple top which we talked about yesterday because remember you have the double top heard around the world on Nvidia when it tanked the first time and it was selling down well before Trump ever held up that little tablet with the terrace on it.
Okay. And what was interesting though, it'll fly in the face of what I was seeing yesterday with all the calls calling for like between 190 and 205 somewhere in there. So, we'll see who's going to be right cuz they'll lose their shirt if they don't. But if you look where it bounced today, it was in that area around that 17820 area.
That's where it did hold. So, we'll see if it gets a bounce tomorrow. Tesla, my big questions is we came up into this box right we talked about mitigated some of that down below. We still got 397 402 area. The big question is is what's going to happen October 1st? Because we know on October 1st, as I put in the morning news brief, that's when this whole 7500 EV tax credit is going to go away.
We know it helped with sales because I've asked you, I've asked everybody in their mother about it and it just makes sense, okay, that this would be the case. We know also it helped because even as Tesla and me and you talked about, they've been front running sales. We've been running in trying to get this credit.
They wouldn't be running in if the credit didn't mean anything. Okay. So, the bigger question is, what do you think's going to happen when it comes to car sales, which is why Tesla's trying everything, Elon Mus trying everything to say, hey, we're not a car company. We're not focusing on anymore. We're going to focus over here.
But it would make sense that all of them would drop. Okay, that would be the big thing. And so, let me know what you think in the comments. Again, Tesla doesn't move off reality, of course, cuz they're just, you know, I mean, they've been going up like crazy. And so far you've seen what we knew the sales are going to be better than they were supposed to be because people were going to front run.
Elon said it himself. What's going to happen on October 1st if sales drop off a cliff? Is Tesla stock going to respond or is just going to be going up and up and up waiting for Optimus and and whatever else? Robo taxis. I mean that's really the big thing. So I'm just curious to get your thoughts on that.
How you think it's going to affect it? Uh now Amazon here you can see big old red candle broke that trend line right there. It goes back to August. broke the 50 moving average right there. And it got hit with a slew of things. One is this whole HB H1B visa stuff with, you know, $100,000 per. Well, guess who's number one on the list?
Amazon. So, we'll see what they're going to do about that. But if they just say the heck with it, we got to pay it. Well, that's a lot of extra expense, right? That they wasn't accounting for. The other one hit today and when it's, you know, stuff starts going red, you start getting piled on. Amazon plans to shut down UK grocery stores.
They just opened like four years ago uh to really concentrate on more e-commerce stuff. Uh then you got Amazon heads of trial. So they're being sued by the FTC right here, Federal Trade Commission about how they've been handling their paid membership and everything, making it harder on folks. Also, when you look over at the last thing, it was like Amazon stock is now big tech's biggest loser.
And it's because of all of a sudden they're talking about the second quarter Amazon web services which is the cloud part having only 17.5% growth when Microsoft had 39, Google had 32 and of course they had lackluster results as far as guidance on this. So it was just a pile on day on Amazon. Okay, so they got piled on.
So the question is, you know, they're at the golden pocket now. We get a bounce from here or are we going to come down and maybe even get a 200 test uh around 214 215 area right there? If we're going to get the 200 moving average retest, that's the question. And so they just got piled on. If the market continues to show weakness, obviously this one's definitely going to go down cuz it's already uh heading down for sure.
But I'm not going to be surprised, you know, with the red day we had today if there's another fail breakdown if we get a bounce up maybe the 225 area and then start to sell down. But the one thing I'm definitely going to pay attention to if it does get a bounce is a break of that trend line right there, okay?
Cuz it has to break and start forming more upside, higher lows and higher highs. But when you had Nvidia down, Tesla down, Amazon down, then yes, the market is going to be down. Okay. Now, speaking of the office kind of stocks, high volatility stocks, this is what I was talking about when I say, man, I feel like it's 202021 vibes, right?
And you can see where it's going. They started almost in the same area. You can see they're going crazy right now and you see low volat vol see low volatility stock just kind of cruising along but it's all these high beta stocks man a lot of them you're seeing coming off the Russell okay and we've talked about these as gradu took this one we talked about it before it broke out that one hit the 79 fib today and these move quick I mean that's just the way it is they're all basically lower float stocks highly shorted especially on the Russell right there and so that one got up there today big move for it you start going through the list though and it's like every morning It seems to be a nice little sell down and the dips are getting bought up like crazy.
Iowa and Q 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 straight green days after breaking through this trend line. It's basically the same pattern. Like every time there's a trend line be broken, they break it. They just rock it, man. I mean, this thing's going from 42 to 75 bucks. RGTI again is another one. Many green days had one red and then it started rocking, I believe, at 130 off of another stock that had good news if I'm not mistaken.
This one didn't even break a trend line. It's just been riding the trend line. Boom. gets the news and these supercomputer stocks, they'll get the news on one and and then they're just all of them just go crazy. Okay, Oak, you already know about this one and you can see it hadn't hit that trend line at the top which is what I've been waiting for, but it is extended beyond belief.
But this idea it broke that trend line retest gone. Okay, and this is what's helped IWM push up. It hit the next fib to the T 24713 right there which we had talked about. Closed below previous all-time high basically just kind of consolidating this very tight area right here. But these high beta stocks, which of course what a lot of Russell stocks are, which of course benefit from Rico and everything else, they're the ones helping push and push and push uh this one up here.
And all I'm looking for is same way you just saw in Tesla, same way you see in a lot of these is I just want to see if this trend line holds or not. Like once it breaks, I know we'll get, you know, maybe a decent sell off. Okay? But I just want to see if that's going to hold or not. What's interesting about Russell here is nearly four years without a new high for small caps.
And you see this is normal. I mean, just look at this. How many times it's happened? You can see in 2004 it happened. 2011, you know, it was only one year and it was 2011 where it wasn't a whole lot of green. Every other one on here, a lot of green, especially 3 months, 6 months, 12 months out. Even for this one, like the next month, you know, I mean, 2013, 16, 20.
Uh, now cuz somebody asked about this one in Saturday's video. Can it be a real stock or just a meme stock? Here's Open Door. This is prime example. Finally breaking this trend line. I put in the discord I was like, "Wow, this trend line means seems to mean something." And after 1500% move up, it you know, open below it, closed below it.
So now, is it a real stock or is it just a meme stock? Right? Because we have cut rates. Technically, it is a real estate stock. We're going to find out. This is where we get to see a real stock, not a meme stock. What it would do is respect market structure. It may come down, fill this gap right here, hit this discount window, and then of course do what?
Bounce. That's usually what they'll do. Okay. And so, you know, we'll see if that's going to be the case. You had the 50 moving average down there. Maybe we come down even farther, get a 50 retest, get a bounce from that because technically, you know, you see the squeeze to the left and it kind of stairstepped it way up after that.
And so, that's what we're going to get to find out. You'll get to see. I mean, if you see some crazy drop like you did the first time and it's going to drop, you know, 40 50%. Then that's just a meme stock as far as I'm concerned. Again, you can have your own opinion on it, but seriously, that's that's just not a legitimate stock.
And so, you know, we're going to see this what the case. Do you see there's support here for it between like 4 and 550 support up there, what is that like 675 to 715, I think it is. And so, we're going to find out very quickly. And so, if it does, you know, and then you start hearing the company report stuff like, here's what we're doing business-wise, then yeah, you you can get out of the meme territory for sure.
If you really want what you want to happen on this one is just consolidate, right? So, you know, but those are the areas I'd be looking at to see if this is going to be a real stock or just continue to be a meme stock. Okay. Uh, now earnings here, we got CentOS in the morning. That's the uniform company.
Then KB Homes, speaking of real estate, and then Stitch Fix. And then as far as data, you got new home sales, crude oil inventories. And that is it. A lot of FOMC members as usual. So, hope you got something out of it. I hope you had a great day today. Please hit that like, subscribe button on your way out.
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