저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가가 50% 하락했으나 로보택시 상업화(6월 오스틴), 저가형 신차, Model Y 리프레시 등을 근거로 장기 목표가 600달러 견해를 유지. 로보택시가 5년 내 기업 가치의 90%를 차지할 것으로 봄. 중국 시장 위험이 있어도 로보택시 기회는 서구 시장에서 더 크다고 주장. 미국 경기는 약화되고 인플레이션은 예상보다 낮아 행정부와 연준의 정책 여력이 크다고 전망. 중국 AI(딥시크 등 오픈소스) 경쟁이 미국 기술 강세를 막지 않는다고 봄.
다듬은 글
I hope, and maybe we could share some of the conversation we were having right before air, but some of our viewers later on. But obviously what we can talk about. Yes. We want to start with Tesla. Yes. And I'm sure you're you've been getting a lot of questions about the stock. Absolutely. Down 50%. It's recovered nicely this week.
I think Elon Musk used your name when he spoke to his employees to basically tell them, hold the stock and look at the bull case. Cathie Wood has underscored. Have any of the concerns recently around to stop hold water? Do you think some of them hold water? Has your books changed at the margins? Well, first, I'm going to give all the credit to the three analysts who are working on Tesla at Ark.
And no, our outlook has not changed. What is going on right now? Very short term, the economy is being hit in the U.S.. Lots of uncertainty. That's not good for any auto manufacturer. Of course, there's the political dynamic overlay. And I know that the authorities are going after that. I think that will pass.
We also have the model y refresh and we understand that the orders for the model Y refresh are going very strongly. I can't I won't get mine for for a very long time. They have a new low cost car coming in the second quarter, which in the United States, I think it could sell for $30,000 or less. There's pent up demand for that.
So we've got a lot of rubber band stretching and maybe and the most important one of all, of course, is Robotaxi. And Elon has announced that that Tesla will launch its Robotaxi service commercially in Austin, Texas, in June. That is when analysts are going to have to put into their models what a robotaxi service is.
And it's a software as a service model, right? Very high margin, 80% plus for platform companies, whereas the electric vehicle is 15, 20, 25% gross margin. So we think that ROBOTAXIS will account for 90% of the value of the company in five years. And we're on record on on record saying we believe in in five years the stock will hit 20 $600.
And that's that's not even including humanoid robots, which are now moving into the Tesla ecosystem much faster than we than even we expected. So more than a ten fold increase just from Robotaxi. So you're not concerned over, let's call it noise because of Elon Musk's role with the government, for example, and how that may or may have not contributed to the risk premium on the stock.
Yes, I think this is one reason the stock is down 50%. I think it's been cut in half. And I think this is all very short term. These this is criminal activity and this administration is cracking down on criminal activity. And, oh, by the way, Tesla cars have a lot of cameras on them. So on X, we're getting to see the people who are committing these crimes and the authorities are going after.
Question say you got into your position. We posed our trades at the end of every day. So you can see that we've added to our position. Okay. Is there do you think one last question in terms of do you think they need to is there any corporate action you think they should entertain right now to boost the stock, or do you think sentiment takes care of itself?
I, I think these launches the refresh why they're low cost car like robotaxi those three. And there is one other thing and this is more macro comment. Sure. We think the economy is getting hit by a lot of uncertainty and I think a lot of people are scared for their jobs in the U.S. anyone involved with the government.
So federal, state and local or quasi government and the health care and education space, you know, that could be as much as 30% of the labor force in the United States. And then we've got a high as another layer of uncertainty. We're seeing middle management teams actually being let go because of the productivity gains associated with a I.
You know, their bosses can handle more and more and more overtime. So that's another source of uncertainty. But we think that is going to play out positively. Longer term technology and breakthroughs in technologies are always associated with new jobs that we can't even imagine. Right. I want to ask you, though, let me let me let me pull in the China factor here.
Yes. Into the Tesla story. And, you know, one of the I think more common observations that we've heard from analysts in this part of the world is that Tesla in China as a final market, currently has a somewhat inferior product compared to the. Is that is that an argument that you buy? Well, if you look, it depends on what you mean by inferior.
So we're looking at the big cars and they are fabulous in terms of from what we can see fit, finish designer. If you look at metrics like range and power for a given price, Tesla is still very competitive, if not the most competitive, depending on the model. Correct? Right. Because no one's there. Yes, but Bhiwadi is from a cost point of view, moving down the consumer electronic battery cost curve, just like Tesla is.
So actually, we think it's great. We think competition is great. But more important for new kinds of technologies is scaling those technologies which both Tesla and Bhiwadi are doing. And when unit growth increases, those come down even more. So we think Tesla and Bhiwadi are are both in the lead from an EV point of view alone, right?
If you layer in Robotaxi, of course, BYD is not seizing the moment there, at least not yet. Okay, I know I said one last question then Tesla open one door very quickly. Worst case scenario, let's let's extrapolate. Worst case scenario. In the event that Tesla does not do well in China in the slightest event.
If it doesn't, for example, and you point out, of course, that they are still very competitive there. Does the bull case still hold up for Tesla if they lose that market? We do believe that China is very important to Tesla. And I actually think that Elon Musk and May Musk, his mother, are sort of ambassadors for the United States.
A big star in China. Yes, yes, yes, yes. And rightly so. So but to answer your question directly, if China were to fail, that would be a short term hit to the stock. Would it take this away from 20 $600? No, because the Robotaxi story is much more a function of the Western world where ride hailing costs are so much higher than they are in China.
We know in Wuhan, for example, Baidu's Apollo is facing human taxi drivers. That or taxis that cost $0.35 per mile. That in the US it's 2 to $4 per mile. So that's why we think the robotaxi opportunity is so much bigger outside of China. You mentioned VI. Do you guys are nibbling? We are. Okay. Why?
Tell me why. Well, we had a conversation very recently with Robin Li and his team. The CEO were very and we understand how competitive the market is in China for both autonomous mobility and large language models. But we're looking at how how Robin Li is pushing the envelope. Wuhan is the toughest market in China.
He can take learnings from that robotaxi experience into other markets, even just Beijing and China and here in Hong Kong, where the pricing will be much higher. So we think he's working very hard on autonomous mobility. We believe that autonomous mobility in the next 5 to 10 years is going to scale globally to an 8 to $10 trillion market.
Okay. If I do, where to get any of that market, even outside of China In the rest of the rest of Asia? Yep. We think that's not at all discounted in the stock. Okay. Do you see yourself adding to that position that I would imagine we could never talk about what we're going to do? Okay. But you can see our trades posted every day.
So we've been nibbling. Have you entertained looking at any other name in China besides? Oh, yes, we are. You know, I think that the shift in even Xi Jinping's word in common prosperity, which is still a phrase used toward new productive forces. Right. Tech and the private sector. Tech efficiency, innovation.
We're very impressed by what is going on in China. And, of course, there was the deep seek moment, which for China, it was the equivalent in China for the rest of and the rest of the world. That chat Getty was in late 22, I think. Yeah. So that was a big wake up call. And one of the things we learned so interesting is that, yes, they may have done it less expensively, maybe much less expensive live.
We're not quite sure about that. But the algorithm very creative. It had not been created in the West. This is from China. It is open source. So now everyone is starting to use it. They say, We love that idea and we're copying it. So what we've also. Earned and did not know until we started studying this open source movement here in China is that it really started a decade ago because a lot of software providers from the Western world were not providing their software to China out of fear of IP theft.
So China said, okay, let's do it ourselves and move open source. I love open source and I think it's going to create a lot of competition out there, which when it comes to innovation, is a very good thing, especially for the end consumer. And it's an investor, does it? The notion that it nullifies the the US.
I had a story because of the deep tech moment. Do you think to my question, do you buy that narrative? And second, the notion that a US and Chinese tech bull market cannot coexist parallel and simultaneously also? Have any thoughts on that? Well, I would disagree with the latter altogether. I think tech not innovation is is is thriving in both countries is going to be great.
The competition will be great. We're going to both be better because of competition. And in terms of spoiling the A.I. model for for Western companies, there we are studying does the does the model in China where you bundle the software into the hardware and the hardware is lower cost and it is all lower margin, is that going to disturb some models?
Possibly. But if you look at closed source models in terms of performance versus open source models, even with our one, the closed source models are still better if, if and we have this up on our website. What's interesting about open source. So while the closed source performance has been increasing consistently, yep.
And we've seen some breakthroughs recently, what you see from open source performance as we're able to measure it is the slope of the performance is actually steeper of the performance improvements. So we we're very interested to see if open source is going to break into the performance territory. Okay.
Closed source has now, Right. So jury's still out. Yeah, the jury's still out. But hey, I we think is an enormous opportunity for both countries. Quick final question for you. I can't let you go without a macro question. Outlook for the S&P 500, the next two quarters is going to remain volatile. Are we going to retest the top, for example?
First of all, I think in the United States, we are in a much weaker economy than most investors, maybe even the Fed understand. And that's because of what I described earlier, this seizing up by consumers, saying, I don't know if I'm going to keep my job. So we think that the economy is going to be weaker.
Inflation's going to be much lower than many people expect, and that the administration and the Fed are going to have more degrees of freedom in the next two quarters than most investors think. And we think that's a recipe. We think the markets discounted all of the uncertainty. I shouldn't say, oh, you never say that.
You never know. But a great deal of the uncertainty. And we think that the next move and it may have just started is understanding that this administration from a deregulation tax cut and interest rate point of view has a lot more freedom than many people now understand. Right. Well, the bull case is not so much regulation and deregulation.
Deregulation and the taxes. Right. The issue for consumers is the tariff part of the conversation. Do you think they will be pragmatic in the event, of course, they pull back? We do think they will be. But these are negotiating. This is a negotiation I'm on. I'll just end by saying. Right. Autonomous mobility.
Biggest air project in the world. Okay. Most profound application of AI. Health care.
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