저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 그랜섬은 전례 없는 연준·재정 부양 속에 시장이 과열된 거품 상태이며, 곧 큰 폭의 붕괴가 올 것이라고 경고한다. 거품 진단: 최근 3년간 주가는 세 배가 된 뒤 다시 세 배가 됐고, 매출·이익 없는 기업의 가격이 GM보다 크며 1929·2000년에도 없던 규모라고 주장한다. 과거 비교: 2000년 붕괴는 연준 구조로 50% 하락에 그쳤지만, 금리가 역사상 최저 수준이라 추가 구원 여지는 적다고 본다. 심리 지표: 투자자들이 빚을 내 투자하며 연준이 항상 지지할 것이라는 믿음이 거의 절대적이라고 지적하며, 이 단계의 열광은 예외 없이 수개월 내 붕괴로 이어졌다고 말한다. 재정 부양: 추가 경기부양은 실물 투자가 아니라 자금을 시장으로 흘려보낼 뿐이며, 이것이 역사책에 남을 정점을 만들 수 있다고 본다. 장기 가치: 결국 주가는 배당과 이익 흐름에 수렴하며, 최근 수조 원 규모 부양책으로도 이 근본은 바뀌지 않는다는 입장이다. 투자 조언: 개별 종목 공매도는 위험해서 권하지 않으며, 일반 투자자는 공매도보다 보수적 태도를 유지하라고 한다. 시장 자체 공매도는 소수 전문가의 영역이라고 언급한다. 출연자 전망: 단기(수개월 내) 급락 가능성을 강하게 시사한다. 구체적 목표가나 특정 종목 방향은 제시하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
normally it takes a nearly perfect economy and friendly uh Fred be fed Behavior but this one has managed to do it with a somewhat wounded economy on a global basis and to compensate for that we've had even more spectacular fed liness and government friendliness so we've had for once the joining of fiscal spending with the with the fed's behavior and the usual moral hazard that has been going on for since Greenspan arrived in in the 90s and and the result of this is the confidence has risen and risen until finally people are reaching for the greatest demonstration of confidence they have had in their investment career they're borrowing more money to throw it into the market their belief in the market is profound the common wisdom is that with the FED on your side how can you lose when they first said that back in Greenspan there were a few doubters when they said it with Bernanke there were less doubters but some and now finally there appear to be almost no doubt as at all the belief is more or less complete that all it takes is to Fed on your side and stocks will rise forever having tripled it then tripled again in the central month of December I can't tell you what it's going to be in January but these are spectacular performances so no sales no profits and bigger than GM there is nothing like that in 1929 nothing of that scale nothing like that in 2000 the ciscos of the world were pretty serious companies but they didn't they didn't get to this level 1929 of course ran into a great depression and global trade problems so you really just want to look at the first leg down which was big enough the analogy is much better with 2000 and 2000 it went down 50 and the reason it only went down 50 and and bounced back relatively quickly was uh was because the FED came charging in to the rescue and you can have a lot of rescues when you start at a 16 long Government Bond in 1982.
you can have a bull market as you go down from 16 to 12 and another bull market from 12 to 8 and another bull market from eight to four but now you're down at two and a half or whatever you have to realize that most of the easy pickings of of saving the game by ramping rates down is behind us at the lowest rates in history and and the idea that you know fundamentals the real world doesn't count all you need is money to generate real wealth I think most people can can feel is an illusion you can imagine a situation where you had a much more serious virus the economy really was on its knees and and the Fed was obviously would be doing everything it could would that be enough to to save the system in the end the system is about the number of people working the amount of capital spending the the quality of Education of your Workforce that's the real world we're talking about the paper world and there's just so much blood you can get out of that in any case uh it was unprecedented and the combination was very powerful without covid we cannot know the market had resisted opportunities to Bubble earlier in this 11-year cycle it looked like it was getting pretty close about three years ago and then it just kind of fizzled away the confidence dissipated the market had a decline and those bull markets can go on forever and you don't know how long and you don't know how high they can go the back of every Bear's mind must surely be Japan Japan in 1989 managed to get to 65 times earnings it had never previously gone over 25 until that cycle so that is the thing that makes the Bears wake up in the middle of the night sweating so you just don't know how long and how high a market can can go if you avoid the burst of euphoria it's the burst of euphoria that typically brings these things to an end and we are seeing it all around us today going short is for a handful of Superstar experts isn't it because you know when you go short you can not just lose your money you can lose multiples of your money at least when you're going long all you can do is lose what you put in you go short and you can get margin called uh into bankruptcy and a lot of people have done over over the years so my recommendation is do not do not go short individual stocks going short the market is painful enough on occasion but going short individual stocks is is for mugs and for the three or four people who are brilliant enough to get away with it when you have reached this level of obvious super enthusiasm the bubble has always without exception broken in the next few months not a few years it's always you can't maintain this level of near ecstasy it can't be done because you've put in your last dollar you are all in what are you supposed to do beyond that point you can't borrow any more money you can't take any more risk in fact you know in your heart of hearts you have never taken this level of risk and you never thought you would it's just that this opportunity is so exceptional this is going to be your once in a lifetime and and how do you keep that level of enthusiasm going indefinitely you can never call a bubble to a few weeks or even a few months and if the government is going to write unprecedentedly large checks to some of the players in the market but then indeed they're all in position can can expand one last desperate Notch and the sad truth of a lot of the quote stimulus is that it didn't increase Capital spending it didn't increase much in the way of of real production but it flowed a lot of it eventually into the market one way or the other and I have no doubt some of this new round of stimulus will and if it's as big as they talk about this would be a very good uh making of a top for the market just of the kind that the history books would enjoy and we will have a few weeks of extra money and a few weeks of putting your last desperate chips into the game and then an even more spectacular bust the market is going to end up as we know where it is going to end up and all the paper in the world will not change the level that is justified by the flow of dividends and earnings that is after all the only thing you can end up eating is the flow of dividends and sooner or later the stock market will once again boring boring sell on the future flow of dividends and that is not going to be changed materially by the size of the check we get in the next few weeks
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