Ray Dalio: "A Crash Is Coming" For The US Economy

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결론: 레이 달리오는 미국 경제가 부채 사이클의 마지막 단계 초기에 들어섰다고 보며 비관적이고, 1~3개월 단위의 가격 방향 예측은 제시하지 않았다. 거시 진단: 재정적자와 기존 화폐화(중앙은행 발권)가 문제의 핵심이라고 주장. 부채 사이클 메커니즘: 부채 상환 부담이 소비를 압박하고, 이것이 가속되면 채권 보유자들이 부채 문제를 인식해 매도에 나서며 중앙은행이 개입해 돈을 찍거나 대규모 손실이 발생한다고 설명. 미국 부채 규모: 미국 정부 부채는 3조1천억 달러를 넘는 수준으로 언급됨. 팬데믹 때 3조 달러 이상 발행 후 금리 인상으로 긴축했으나 금리 인상이 시장 충격과 채권 매력 저하를 낳았다는 진행자 설명. 통화정책 변화: 금 태환 체제에서 금리 중심 정책으로, 금리 인하 여력이 소진되자 양적완화로 이동했으며, 이 과정에서 자산 보유자에게만 이득이 간다고 지적. 지정학·기타 리스크: 정치적 긴장, 전쟁에 따른 공급망 교란, 식량 인플레이션과 실업을 리스크로 꼽음. 기술 혁신은 잠재력이 크지만 문제가 될 수도 있다고 봄. 투자 조언: (1) 무엇을 모르는지가 아는 것보다 중요하므로 국가·통화·자산군 분산, (2) 기회가 있는 곳에 있되 분산으로 수익 희생 없이 위험 축소, (3) 기술 변화를 주시하되 기술을 개발하는 쪽보다 가장 효과적으로 활용하는 쪽을 고를 것. 종목 언급: 대상 목록 자산에 대한 구체적 방향 언급은 없음. 채권·금리 관련해서는 금리 인상이 채권 시장을 불리하게 만들었다는 과거 설명만 있고 향후 방향 예측은 없음.

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01. the US economy is going down and ongoing Wars are causing more problems the yield in the bond market is not lucrative interest rates are rising and the stock market well it's very volatile and directionless at the moment so what can you still do to make money in these tough times and save yourself from recession Ray recently spoke out where he gave three important tips for anyone looking to invest during a recession and we have broken them down for you in this video Ray also covered why the economy is doing bad where it is growing and finally how to see it as an opportunity to make some money with smart Investments But first you need to know about the state of the current economy to understand the context of investing for next year are you optimistic about the global economy or pessimistic pessimistic so if you're a little confused and still have some questions don't worry Ray has got you covered why does he feel pessimistic about this economy and what does Ray feel we're doing wrong we have a problem the problem is going to be the existing level of budget deficits and the existing monetization because the way that this works in the last part of the cycle the long-term debt cycle is first that The Debt Service payments uh begin to squeeze out the consumption and you go to a point where that starts to accelerate in a self-reinforcing problem that problem predes the real problem the bigger problem which is when there's owners of the debt see this debt problem emerging and there's a big imbalance and they so the central banks come in and print or they have large losses and as a result of that the owners of those want to sell the bonds I think we're in the the early stages of the last stes just like Ray said we are in the early stages of the last stage meaning it is the start of recession here he also mentioned a debt cycle let's understand what it is and how it will affect you the US government borrows money by issuing bonds these bonds are essentially on IUS where the government promises to pay back the Bor money with interest over a specified period it uses the Bor money to fund its operations programs and services like Defense Education Healthcare and infrastructure projects as the government spends more than it collects in taxes it incurs a budget deficit right now the US has the largest debt in the world exceeding $31 trillion in simple words it is earning way less than its spending but what is Ray's take on the debt cycle term debt cycle is first that the debt Deb service payments uh begin to squeeze out the consumption so in other words as debt becomes a higher percentage of income and interest rates go up then Debt Service payments become greater and as those Debt Service payments become greater that squeezes out consumption and you go to a point where that starts to accelerate in a self-reinforcing problem that problem problem precedes um the real problem the bigger problem which is when owners of the debt see this debt problem emerging and there's a big imbalance and they so the central banks come in and print or they have large losses over time the government must pay interest on the accumulated debt this adds to the overall financial burden there is a limit on how much the government can borrow if this limit is reached it can create complications as the government May struggle to meet its financial obligations and it is quite evident as we have some historic interest rate hikes which caused the stock market crash and made the bond market unattractive to investors and if you're thinking that it could happen in a year or two years it's not like that but what is causing this Deb cycle in the first place there's a pattern originally um there's an interest rate policy um well originally money is tied to gold or something hard and it keeps it hard but when there's too much printing of money too much um need for credit that link doesn't work and then they break that down and then we go to an interest rate driven monetary policy raise and lower interest rates and that's the cost of money and that rations things that the supply demand aine at that interest rate however when interest rates can't be lowered anymore and there's a situation where there's an imbalance between the demand for bonds the demand for credit instruments and the supply of them in other words when the supply is offered a lot more than the free market demand then there's what I call monetary policy 2 which is quantitative easy in other words throughout history the purchases by the Central Bank printing of money and the purchasing purchasing of those bonds but when that happens it helps the owners of those bonds the bonds go up owners of financial assets make money but the money does not get trickled down does not go to the population that it might be desired to go Ry is Right On Target there now if you remember during the pandemic the US government printed more than $3 trillion to counter the recession but there is a limit to print after exhausting the option the US government went on to increase interest rate in order to tighten the money supply but that backfired and the high interest rate made it difficult for you to spend save and invest and that's not all Ray pointed out more reasons why the economy is in shambles for next year are you optimistic about the global economy or pessimistic pessimistic pessimistic pessimistic about look you you have you have a political you have a monetary you have an A a conflict type of environment at the same time you have the greatest inventiveness we talk about this fabulous technology development that has so much potential to um produce wonderful things and then I the also it's a it could be a problem so if you take the time Horizon the monetary policies that we're going to see and so on will have greater effects on the world and you look at the world gaps so you it's difficult to be optimistic on that and I think now uh the real issue I think is how we deal with each other okay okay if we it was said earlier very well you know um Peace if we can if we can keep a peace if we can have a com a a healthy competitive environment without having a war with each other we will be in good shape we will make ad adaptation amid inflation rate hikes and high debt multiple Wars are going on which is disrupting the supply chain of natural resources and as a result we are experiencing food inflation and unemployment as an investor this is not an ideal situation and re just wanted to make money in these times so what are the options now what will be your investment strategy going forward here are three investment tips for you and the first one is I'm going to answer in in in in two ways I'm going to say that uh first there's a saying in the markets he who lives by the crystal balls he who lives by crystal ball is destined to eat ground glass okay what I mean is um what you don't know is very important relative to what you do know and for that reason understanding how to properly balance and diversify a portfolio um and that diversification should be of countries currencies and asset classes is something that's important what a smart thing to say because of the volatility of financial markets what you don't know is more important than what you know and because there are so many moving points that you cannot predict or be sure of anything here is tip number two F I guess a few things um first I want to be in the right places you know geography right okay right okay I want to be where where the action is where there's the Civility and all of that kind of thing um I would and I'd like to have diversification because what I don't know is going to be much greater much more important than what I do know diversification can reduce your risk without reducing your return being available at the right place and at the right time is important if one market is not doing good then there has to be another Market that would be growing you just need to be ready also another very important Point mentioned by him is diversification a diverse portfolio and investment in different asset classes can protect you from risk of losing money and when it comes to investment two things are constant change and technology and of course the final tip is related to it which is and then um I have to pay attention to the implications of the great dis disruptions that are going to take place because the world is going to the world will be radically different in 5 years and it's going to go year by year become radically different next elections the debt situation all of these things are going to change and then with this with the new technologies we're going to go it's like going through a Time Warp we're going to be in a different world okay and the disruptors will be disrupted so I'm I want to know like um I don't need to know uh pick those who are creating the new technologies I need to really pick those who are using the new technologies in the best possible way they're not less part in the of the bubble and I don't want debt totally agree with him the coming years are really important for Innovations and inventions if you want to stay ahead of the game and find Opportunities to invest keep an eye on the new Innovations and their users that is where the money is and if a person who runs the largest hedge fund in the world says something you should listen to it if You' like to hear more from Ray Dalo and learn from him here is another video where he teaches more about investing