저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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2024년에 2008년보다 더 큰 위기가 올 것이라는 Peter Schiff의 경고 영상이다. 결론: 인플레이션과 재정적자 누적으로 달러 위기와 주권부채 위기가 올 수 있으며, 금을 중심으로 실물자산을 보유해야 한다는 주장이다. 인플레이션: 2008년 이후 QE와 코로나 대응이 인플레이션의 근원이며, CPI는 3%에서 3.7%로 반등했고 2024년에는 2023년보다 더 큰 문제가 될 것이라고 전망했다. 재정·부채: 연 2조 달러 적자가 지속되며, 미국 국가부채는 한 달 만에 1조 달러 늘어 33조 달러를 넘었다. 금리와 악순환: 연준의 금리 인상이 기업 비용과 CPI를 다시 밀어 올리고, 정부 이자 부담이 늘어 더 많은 화폐 발행으로 이어지는 악순환이 2024년 경제 재난으로 번질 것이라고 주장했다. 주택·은행: 2008년에는 연체 대출만 문제였으나 지금은 금리가 5.5%인데 주택담보대출 금리는 3~4%라 은행이 모든 대출에서 손실을 본다는 논리다. 상업용 부동산 가격은 절반 가까이 떨어졌고, 모건스탠리는 올해 40% 하락을 예측했다고 언급했다. WeWork 파산도 사례로 제시했다. 대응: 달러, 미국채, 달러 표시 채권에서 벗어나 금·은을 보유하고, 해외 배당주 등 실물·소득형 자산에 투자하라고 권했다. 금은 수천 년간 가치를 유지해 왔다는 근거를 들었다. 리스크: 영상은 자신의 자산운용사 고객 유치 목적의 홍보 성격이 있다.
다듬은 글
well you know this the the story is going to have a tragic ending unfortunately we're going to have a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis the FED is going to print money until the dollar collapses what happens if a man who predicted the 2008 Market crisis says something worse than that is coming well Peter Schiff the founder CEO and chief Economist at europacific Asset Management has revealed more than he should have said he's a man who had predicted the 2008 crash and now he is implicitly giving signs of yet another crisis when someone like him says the upcoming crisis will be worse than the last it must be taken seriously for months economists and billionaire investors have hinted at possible crises but nobody explained things as openly as Peter shift did he himself was quite uncomfortable while explaining what was coming which in his opin opinion was more frightening than what happened in 2008 but what will happen and what should people do to protect their money let's listen to Peter Schiff because he just revealed a lot well first of all I also called all the inflation that we're experiencing and it actually has its Origins to the 2008 financial crisis because what the government did in response to that crisis qe1 QE2 qe3 all of that plus you know what we did during covid that is the source of all this inflation and it's going to continue to get worse as long as we continue to run these massive deficits we're running a $2 trillion doll a year and Rising debt and and this is going to lead to much higher inflation in the future than what we've experienced in the past and I think that the decline in the CPI is over we bottomed out 2 months ago at 3% year-over-year now we're at 3.7% and rising and I think think inflation is going to be a much bigger problem in 2024 than it was in 2023 well in just a single month the US national debt has increased by $1 trillion Crossing $33 trillion a new height that we never saw before it's because the US government is in deficit and is spending more than it's supposed to that's why most economists including Peter Schiff have said that the US government itself is prepared ing a recipe to bankrupt the country but that's just part of the problem Peter Schiff revealed that inflation has reached New Heights making it difficult for Americans to afford things in return this has provoked the FED to increase interest rates to an abnormal level and that too instantly due to this people are defaulting on their loans and mortgages comparing this with what happened in 2008 the market crashed because Banks could not handle a percentage of defaulting mortgages the rest were being paid but now as interest rates have increased the percentage of mortgages that cannot be paid is increasing and will be more than in 2008 in 2008 the mortgage delinquency rate increased to 28% but now it will surpass that percentage according to Peter Schiff yet things will get nastier than this listen to what Peter Schiff said and in fact the spiral actually is worse because the increasing interest rates actually contribute to the rise in the CPI because interest rates are a price and it's a very uh important price for a lot of companies just like labor and rents and raw materials companies borrow money uh to conduct their business to make Capital Investments to expand a lot of these companies have taken on debt over the years and now the cost of Serv servicing that debt has risen sharply I think it will continue to rise and so businesses need to pass on these higher interest rates to their customers in the form of higher consumer prices so every time the FED raises rates it puts more upward pressure on the CPI as the US national debt increases it shows that the government is spending more to cover that it has to print more money which in turn creates more inflation again to manage this inflation interest rates are increased but this makes paying back the loans expensive and increases government spending because things are expensive for the government too so again more money is printed and this spiral continues according to Peter Schiff this will reach an abnormal level in 2024 when an economic disaster will be inevitable but guess what a housing and banking crisis will join this economic disaster but the problem is when the price goes down uh the banks are in a lot of trouble because that's the collateral off for these loans but why this is a bigger financial crisis now than in 2008 it's the banks are losing money on all the mortgages even the mortgages where people are paying back in '08 it was only the defaulted mortgages that were a problem now all of them are a problem because the banks are only earning you know 3% 4% on these mortgages but the cost of money is now 5.5% so the banks lose money on every mortgage that's being paid so the entire banking system is completely insolvent and Commercial Real Estate is an unmitigated disaster now we just had the bankruptcy of wew work it took a while but that's going to put a lot of of office space on the market it's already depressed it's over supplied uh commercial real estate prices are being cut in half and the banks have huge losses Peter Schiff explained the very basic dilemma the banks are now in he said that banks will not go bankrupt because of defaulted mortgages this time rather than normal mortgages are worsening things for banks yes even if mortgages are being paid they don't make a difference in avoiding a banking crisis let's try to understand that earlier when interest rates were abnormally low people took mortgages at let's say 3% interest rates even if the current 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 8% people still pay 3% however banks that use money offered by the government at current interest rates have to pay more for that money this is creating a growing deficit which the banks are struggling with but they cannot avoid that for long and eventually it will end in a banking crisis at the same time real estate prices are going down and the market has a high supply of houses commercial real estate prices have been cut by half in some States and Morgan Stanley analysts have predicted the price to decline by 40% this year that's when one asks what should be done to keep the money safe well listen to what Peter Schiff said about that well just got to recognize that the inflation tax is going to keep going up and to avoid it or mitigate it uh you got to get out of US Dollars don't leave your money in the bank don't leave it in treasuries or any kind of dollar denominated Bond you should be buying gold silver as an alternative a store of value and you should be investing in real assets that's what I'm helping my clients do at your Pacific Asset Management invest abroad in income producing foreign stocks uh Investments that will maintain their real value and deliver incomes that will preserve purchasing power so you can stay even or one step ahead of inflation yes as inflation is on the rise and this will continue holding the US dollar or assets tied to it will be disastrous that's when gold and other assets whose value can appreciate over time come in instead of allowing your money to get devalued this money can be converted into assets like Golds or dividend paying stocks but as we focus more on protection than making money gold is the number one choice according to Peter Schiff no matter what happens in the world whether there's a banking economic housing crisis or a War the price of gold will appreciate over time it's an asset you can keep in touch unlike money which is just paper gold has existed for thousands of years whether we're talking about ancient Greece Egypt China or Babylon Wars disasters and conflicts happened but gold stayed and its value never declined do you agree with what Peter Schiff said would you like to protect your money and not take any risks if you want to watch more videos like this one which explains the Crux of Economic and financial subjects that affect 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