저자: 미상 · 외국인
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David Tepper의 2025년 3분기 13F 변화를 분석. Whirlpool 지분을 약 2000% 늘린 점을 주목, 경기순환 회복을 기대하는 것으로 해석. 반도체 비중 확대(Qualcomm 255% 증가, AMD 신규 매수, TSMC·Nvidia 소폭 증가). 중국 기술주 Baidu 확대, Alibaba 8% 축소. 업종 성장률 연 15.4% 전망을 제시하되 반도체는 경기순환 산업이라 주의 필요. 출연자는 과거 사례 설명 위주이며 특정 가격 방향 예측은 제한적.
다듬은 글
Well, several things stand out here, and we're going to talk about a company we've never discussed before. What caught my attention was that he has increased his position by almost 2000% in the company Weirpool, which we will talk about a little bit now. You can see that it has some movements here that are not that significant, some reductions or increases of 7% or 8% in some positions.
For example, it increases slightly in Nvidia. Uh, it's also increasing more significantly in other semiconductor companies. For example, Qualcomm added 255% more to its position and bought AMD, which is a new company that appears this quarter in David Tepper's portfolio. It also increased slightly, as you can see, in Taiwan semiconductor.
So David Tepper in this case, as you can see, is quite positive about semiconductors. It is expanding its holdings in semiconductor stocks it already owned , and even making a new purchase such as AMD. It also highlights that it has increased its position in some Chinese companies, such as Baidu, which, like many other Chinese technology companies, was very cheap, but in Alibaba, which is one of the largest companies in its portfolio, it has reduced its position by 8%.
Also noteworthy is the purchase of Fisherf, which has fallen a lot, and of American Airlines Group, although within the portfolio, as you can see, they have smaller weights of around 1.5%. And well, then you can see that there are other purchases and other movements, we're not going to comment on all of them, either, because they have less impact on your portfolio.
And well, for today's video I thought it would be interesting to highlight Whirlpool, which is a company we've never talked about before and is one of the largest manufacturers of household appliances in the world. It sells everything from washing machines and dryers to refrigerators and ovens under different brands, such as MTA, Kitchen Aid and Weirpool itself.
Teper is known for investing in debt and stocks that frequently experience problems. In many instances, Wirepool could be seen as a deep value stock. You'll see that the rating is currently low. The company has been hit to some extent by the economic slowdown and by problems in the housing sector. Of course, if all this is not at its best and there is a slowdown from this point of view, obviously fewer appliances are sold and this directly affects the company.
Perhaps by taking such a significant position with this 2000% increase in its stake, it is anticipating a cyclical recovery in this business or seeing that the intrinsic value of the business is well above the current price. That's kind of the idea that led me to believe he might be increasing his position.
It's a macro game, you know, in cyclical companies, trying to buy when the cycle is depressed, to see if you can benefit from that recovery. You can see it's fallen considerably; it's dropped, look, from $250 per share, which is the high, to $70. And it trades under the ticker WHR. So , what's the current rating?
As you can see, it doesn't trade at very high valuations; it would be valued at 11 times earnings. The average has been 10 times, but also take into account the cyclical nature of the company in this type of business. If the economic cycle really starts to improve and sales begin to pick up , then the P/E ratio is very misleading and can compress rapidly because profits in cyclical companies can suddenly grow significantly from one year to the next .
So I think he's betting a bit that the worst might be over and we're going to see a recovery in these types of companies. We had also seen that it had increased its positions in semiconductor companies and had bought AMD, whose valuation we will now review, and Qualcomm as well. Semiconductors, as you know, are absolutely essential.
They are the brains that manufacture essential things, from our smartphones or computers to modern cars and cloud computing infrastructure. Strong growth is expected for this sector, driven mainly by artificial intelligence. The demand we 're seeing for AI chips is huge, as you know, we've already discussed it when we talked about Taiwan Semiconductor, for example, or other companies, the global adoption of 5G and the development of the internet of things.
As you can see here, I've been looking at growth estimates for the next few years and the semiconductor sector is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 15.4%, which are very high growth rates. The thing is, you also have to keep in mind that this is a cyclical sector, although right now demand is very strong.
There have already been years, if you look at the evolution of the sector, in which those growth rates have slowed down. Then came a year of very high growth. In these projections from the analysis firms, everything looks very nice because they apply a growth rate and you see that it grows every year, but historically in the semiconductor sector this goes more by cycles and there are years, as I say, of very strong growth, others that slow down, it can even decrease in some cases.
So, well, just keep that in mind, but obviously semiconductors are a sector with a lot of tailwinds. We dedicated a video to AMD when it was around $ per share. The shares have risen quite a bit now, they are already above 200 and well, currently there is a valuation, if we value it by P/E ratio of about 44 times because the shares have risen a lot and are no longer at historically low valuations.
It is trading significantly above its historical average valuation, although the company's CEO recently gave very positive forecasts for the coming years that could justify a higher multiple if those growth estimates are met. And then we have Qualcomm, which is perhaps more focused on the smartphone side of things, resulting in a lower rating, but historically it has always been that way.
There would be a valuation, as you can see here in green, of about 14 times earnings. And well, we have also seen that it had other semiconductor companies in its portfolio , such as Taiwan Semiconductor or Nvidia. In 2022 I made a video talking about the semiconductor sector and specifically I talked about what I thought might be the three best stocks to take a position in, or at least the three that I liked the most.
I talked about ASML, if you remember, in that video 3 years ago. We also talked about Taiwan Semiconductor and we also talked about Nvidia, which has obviously surprised everyone with its upward trend, right? And it has gone much better than expected. But I also mentioned that an interesting way to gain exposure to the semiconductor sector is through ETFs, and not only for this sector, but also, for example, there are interesting ETFs to gain exposure to the health sector or any other sector that you find interesting to invest in in a diversified way without overthinking it.
And well, here I've listed some ETFs in case you're interested in the whole semiconductor thing. This is the one we discussed 3 years ago in that video, which is the Banec Semiconductor UCITS ETF. But you can see that there are some others here too , although it is true that they are quite a bit smaller.
This would be the largest, managing 2.881 billion. And well, we had also said that in some Chinese companies it had reduced, for example Alibaba, which is its largest position, but it had increased significantly in Baidu. What is Baidu? Baidu is the leading internet search platform in China and has a dominant market position.
It is often compared to the equivalent of Google, but in China. It has positioned itself as a leader in AI development in China and is a pioneer in technologies such as autonomous vehicles with Apollo and its own language model called Ernie Bot. Tepper's large increase in stake, which has risen, if I remember correctly, to over 60%, could be anticipating a recovery or normalization of the Chinese technology sector after years of regulatory uncertainty and capital outflows from China also due to geopolitical tensions.
The valuations were very depressed, and the valuation of this and many other companies is still historically low. What can I tell you? As you can see, all these years Chinese companies have been trading at super-depressed and super-low valuations, especially compared to the multiples at which they had traded in the past.
And I won't even mention it if you compare it with companies from other countries, although, well, I can also understand that a lower multiple is paid due to the country risk that could be applied to these companies. Well, the shares are currently at $116 and are traded under the ticker symbol Bidu.
You can find them with ADR. Here we have the valuation, the thought that he bought during the third quarter, it's not that he's buying now, that's a bit of a bad thing, as I had told you, these 13F documents, but they have just been reported, we couldn't have known this information before. And well, he was probably buying at somewhat lower valuations of around 15 times earnings.
We can estimate more or less. Right now they would be at 18 times earnings, which isn't exactly an exorbitant valuation. The average has been about 19 times. Despite having many small positions within its portfolio. Here you can see all this part that says "others". Actually, their top five bets are Alibaba with 15%, although we have seen that it had reduced a little.
Amazon also has a 7.43% position. Whpool, which is the one he's been buying, the one we mentioned before, the appliance store. You can see that it's a relevant position within their portfolio; Nvidia and Google also have it here with a 4.58. Those five positions make up 40% of his portfolio.
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