저자: Iván—출연자소속미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
테리 스미스(Fundsmith)가 모멘텀 쪽으로 전략을 일부 바꾸며 포트폴리오를 조정. 우버 신규 매수(약 5%), 마스터카드 보유, TSMC 신규 매수(약 4%), 넷플릭스 매수, 조에티스 전량 매도, 알파벳·필립모리스·포티넷·마이크로소프트·메타 비중 축소. 영상은 우버를 교통 플랫폼 승자로 긍정 평가(약 19배 PER), TSMC는 독점적 지위와 AI 수요를 근거로 긍정 평가하되 사이클 리스크 언급.
다듬은 글
Okay, let's talk about Terry Smith now. We recently dedicated a video to this investor because he had changed his investment strategy a bit and suddenly started focusing on momentum. He wasn't just going to buy quality stocks, but stocks with good momentum. So he's making a lot of changes to his portfolio.
I do believe he is buying quality stocks, at least the purchases he has made this quarter seem to me to be , and let's review the highlights. Well, he sells 100% of his Medler Toledo position, buys Uber, which appears here as a new purchase with almost 5% of the portfolio weight, Mastercard, just as we saw in Bill Ackman, well, he has also been buying Mastercard, but however, notice, he reduces Visa, now he has both in the portfolio, perhaps he thinks that Mastercard is cheaper, the truth is that it is going to have a little more growth.
Well, the point is that I continue to maintain both. Taiwan Semiconductor buys Netflix. Bill Ackman had also bought Netflix this quarter. On the sales side, well, we have Zoetis, which bought it a few quarters ago, but it hasn't gone well at all; in fact, it's only gone down, hasn't it? Since then, he has sold 100% of the position.
It is reducing its stake in some technology companies, such as Alphabet, which is selling 40% of its position. It also reduces its stake in Philip Morris, which it bought a long time ago and will have made quite a bit of money with this investment, by 43%, and also reduces its stake in Fortinet, by 41%.
It also reduces other technology companies such as Microsoft by 23% or Meta, which is also reducing by 20% at one of the moments, curiously, in which Meta is at one of the lowest valuations in recent years. The truth is that it's roughly 17 times profit, which surprises me. And well, in this case, he's selling some shares, but he still maintains a position.
Uber seems like a very interesting investment to me, especially considering the coming years, and Terry Smith is betting on Uber because he considers it the clear winner of the transportation war after the disappearance of most of its competitors. In fact, if you remember, Bill Ackman wore it in first position.
His thesis is based on a powerful network effect that this platform has, where more drivers within Uber reduce waiting times, compared to competitors. In this way, they attract more customers, creating a scale that they say is very difficult to replicate. Terry Smith argues that the rise of autonomous vehicles will not destroy Uber.
In fact, they are also creating their own fleet of autonomous vehicles, but manufacturers will need Uber's huge user network, which is very valuable and continues to grow, to deploy their fleets. And in fact, it has alliances with some companies, not with Tesla specifically, as it seems that Tesla wants to go it alone and has its own application, but it does have alliances with some other companies.
Well, it's currently trading at around $75 per share, and we can see that it would be at about 19 times earnings. Good growth rates are also expected for Uber. On average, we see that it has traded at 25 times, so it would also be undervalued according to its historical valuation. And well, I think it is an investment that makes a lot of sense to maintain for the coming years.
It may have a lot of potential. On the other hand, we have that it has been buying Taiwan Semiconductor, which is a company that has had spectacular years on the stock market, it has risen a lot. Taiwan Semiconductor is a monopoly, it is the largest foundry in the world and manufactures about 90% of the world's most advanced chips , for clients such as, for example, Apple or, for example, Nvidia.
Its defensive moat is virtually insurmountable due to the astronomical capital costs involved in setting up a single state-of-the-art chip manufacturing plant, such as those owned by Taiwan Semiconductor. Also the knowledge, the know-how that they have, in this company, right? After being the best in all this manufacturing stuff for so many years.
A single plant, to give you an idea, can cost up to 20 billion dollars. And it also needs to be filled with machines to manufacture these chips, like the ones ASML sells. In this way, the company consolidates itself as an absolutely indispensable pick-and-shovel supplier to support all the global growth of artificial intelligence, as it is a clear beneficiary that has had, well, as I say, a historic rally.
It is listed in Taiwan, but also trades with ADRs in the United States at $430 per share. Remember this stock we talked about a few years ago when I made a video about the semiconductor sector, I think it was in 2022, and it was around $70 or $65 per share, I think I remember it being, and it has had a historic rally.
We also talked about Nvidia in that video, which has also been shared many times, and about ASML, which I told you were my three favorite stocks at the time to invest in the semiconductor sector. So, what's Taiwan Semiconductor's stock price? Well, their shares have risen a lot, but if we look at what their profits have done these years, well, they 've also exploded.
So, the valuation multiple, despite the terrible rally they've had, is n't that high either; it's about 21 times earnings, which would be a little above the average at which it has traded in recent years. Perhaps we might expect that after such a rally, it would be trading at stratospheric valuations of 100 times earnings or even more, but the truth is that this rise has been accompanied by the company's fundamentals , and earnings have skyrocketed.
Obviously, if at some point all this brutal demand for AI chips slows down, then it could be negatively affected, logically, if this growth slows down, but for the moment, based on the comments made about the results, the demand from the big tech companies, including Taiwan Semiconductor itself, remains brutal, and at least in the short or medium term, it doesn't look like this is going to change.
But at some point in the future, perhaps it could change. As you know, this sector, the semiconductor industry, is ultimately cyclical, although, well, a cycle can last for many years. And well, this is how Terry Smith's portfolio would look , which is a portfolio that has about 40 positions, it has Marriott as its top position, it has, well, that, some interesting companies that we have talked about, like Visa, like Uber as well, which have around 5% of the portfolio weight, Mastercard, Google, it has Procter & Gamble, some quality defensive companies, Meta, Automatic Data Processing, which is also a good company that has suffered a lot due to the whole software issue, it still maintains a 4% position in Microsoft, it still has some Fortinet and well, Taiwan Semiconductor, which we just saw, represents 4% of his portfolio.
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