저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 투자자 Vijay Kedia는 지식이 투자 운을 결정하며 시장에서 살아남는 것이 중요하다고 강조. 인도 인프라·항공 등 정부 중점 섹터에 관심, AI 자체보다 AI를 활용하는 기업이 수혜라 주장. 본인은 SMILE 전략(소형·중형주, 15~20년 경력 경영진, 성장 열망, 큰 시장)으로 장기 투자하며 기술적 분석은 쓰지 않는다고 함. FII 매도는 3년째 진행 중이며 국내 뮤추얼펀드 자금 유입이 이를 상쇄한다고 봄. 중국 투자는 옹호하나 구체적 가격 방향은 언급하지 않음.
다듬은 글
That one stock can really change your life. So but to identify identifying that stock is variant. For that, you need to have a lot of knowledge about it. For this I have written another analogy of yours which I feel that the knowledge that you have is your luck. Whatever you know, whatever you understand, decides your destiny.
They become your destiny through that. Ok? So I wrote an analogy for that. I will read it out to you. Then we will take Q&A and we will have Q&A sessions. Knowledge fuels practice and practice builds experience and experience teaches lessons and lessons shape decisions and decisions drive actions and actions deliver results and results create luck.
So ultimately the knowledge, as I told you, whatever you know, it directly decides in which direction your destiny is going to go in life. So you should know that luck is more important than money. You can lose money even after having it. But you cannot lose what you have learned. You should keep sharpening it.
So that's all I have to say for today, let me just tell you one thing in the end. I have written another analogy that and . So please remember whatever money you have made in the last three years and four years, never let that money get into your mind. Always remember, whenever any of my acquaintances, friends or anyone else meets me, they say that I did this.
When I made so much money, I told him never to use this word in the stock market in his life that I did this. I never use it like that. Whatever small place I am standing in today from my zero, I never think like this. It doesn't occur to me that I did that. I tell him to say that this happened to me.
The market gave you this opportunity. This opportunity was given to you by the bull market. And this opportunity has been given to you by God. So never forget this. Remember that everybody is a genius in a bull market. Ok? That's my song too. All geniuses are in a hurry. Everyone considers themselves heroes.
The same geniuses who became zero again in the storm of recession. A new life begins in the making and breaking of things. Still, don't lose your senses. Even though the party has started and secondly my song is such that if no one understands then why should you fall while growing, why should these 90% people lose money, those who thought well should understand this, whatever they took by sitting, they earned, these 90% people could not sit and open your eyes brother, think a little brother, nine out of 10 people lose money in trading.
So all these things here are only 10-15 things which you should keep in mind, then I remembered one of my poems from Sher Bazaar that I had recited in front of Piyush ji and Fadnavis ji that remain steadfast in every situation. This is the law of time. Auto driver became CM. The tea seller is the PM.
This game is still going on. You have to prepare. Tighten your waist and take up the challenge. Now it's your turn. So there are so many opportunities in the stock market. There is so much opportunity for everyone. Here the most important thing in the stock market is to stand on the pitch. If you don't want to play, then you just keep playing defense.
There is no need to score runs. If it is not the right ball and the right pitch. Do n't keep any runs in your mind. Stand on an empty pitch and just keep trying to see when a no ball will come so that I can hit it for a six. Or you get a loose ball and I hit a six on it. Only when you stand still can you hit fours and sixes.
If you go to the pavilion early in the game, your career is over. Stick to this saying. The biggest guru mantra here is to stay here in the stock market. Staying safe means having a margin of safety as to how you are investing in which shares. Always keep one thing in mind, even if the market has fallen by 20%, keep one thing in mind before buying any shares that maybe I will buy it and it will fall by another 20% from here.
will fall by another 25%. The day your mindset is ready for what I am doing, the value here can become clear by 25-30%. This does not mean that a share has become five times more valuable and you should buy it again and give it 25% weight. Maybe that 23/3 his value could be clear. This can also happen.
So the day you learn to look at your losses and your night's sleep will not be disturbed, that day you will become a good investor. That day you will become a strong investor. So keep this thing in mind and good wishes to all the students and all the newcomers and everybody here. Thank you [appreciation] Vijay Sir Shall we open up for the question?
Please ok right here ok go for it session. Let's start with you. Vijay Sir I have a question on my friends behalf. He has a little bit of issue hearing. So, I will translate the question answer letter on but here is his question in his own words. Based on your research, which sector do you think will grow rapidly in the next two decades?
And the second question is what do you think will win? AI or renewable sector? What's your opinion on that? So, let me give you the answer to the first question only that which sectors are going to perform better in the last 20 years? What I assume if India has really to become a what you call that 40 trillion economy and 30 trillion economy this is what amritkaal is going on in that if we have to become a 30 trillion dollar economy then I think that every sector should do well just one sector can not take us to 30 trillion dollar economy and even 20 approximately 10 trillion dollar economy to reach to that level it has to be an exponential rise in all the sectors of course there would be something some sectors will rise faster, some sectors will grow slower.
That could be the case and that will also happen. But one thing I have realised in life is always focus on the sectors where the government has focused. Wherever the government focuses on whichever sector, you should focus on that sector. I think infrastructure is one sector looking at China, the kind of infrastructure we are having, we are still lagging behind.
So I think infrastructure is one sector which is going to do well. Like this there are there are so many other sectors also one like airlines sector which I feel that airlines is also a sunrise sector there is a court of mind that stay invested in a sunrise sector at any cost and stay out of a sunset in a sector at any cost.
So I think infrastructure and I think could be like this airlines and similarly their host of sectors. But suppose if you ca n't understand if you can't find out which sectors are going to do well. The best way to remain invested in this market is to invest through mutual funds. And I would appeal and I will request all the students, new comers, they should start their career by investing into mutual funds only.
Don't try to be adventurous and don't invest directly into this market. Because this market is very easy, stock market is a place to make easiest money in the hardest way. So, first learn the trick, learn the trick of the age from them so that you understand its integrity a little. And after that you should start investing.
Now coming to your second question that is AI and all I don't know I am I don't get any AI company specially only AI company so one thing I have realized that forget about the AI find out the company which is using AI that is more important I will give you one data I can give you you know the biggest rise of this coke companies Pepsi and CaC cola started happening after the invention of refrigerator when the refrigerator was invented the biggest beneficiary of the invention actually taken by Pepsi and Coke.
Because today you see thousands of refrigerator manufacturing companies in India. There is no monopoly of one company. If I tell you there is a company. Every region every country has different 10 seats of manufacturers in refrigerators. Every country. But till date there is no alternative to Coke and Pepsi in the entire world.
Because of the refrigerator. Same thing is going to happen into AI also. So the company which is using AI efficiently and innovate in innovative way will be the beneficiary of this. But I think today if you ask me I don't have any true story in my mind. So it will take some time but you have to be always on the proud.
Hello Hello Sir Good Afternoon So Sir Vijay Kedia The AS Investor So what is your investment strategy you prefer in such a highly volatile market to find multibagger stocks because your portfolio consist of those stocks which are small cap, mid cap and which has given an absolute impossible return can we have like list.
So what is your investment strategy considering both fundamental and technical? How do you see in your way that this company has a potential to rise in the upcoming years? I would like to have your opinion, sir. So, let me tell you, I don't follow any technicalities so far as investments are concerned.
I don't apply ah technicals in my investments. Of course, I understand little bit of technicalities, may be alphabets level, ah but and I don't want to learn more also. Because I am a long term investor. I don't sell my shares for 15 years, 20 years. And may be some shares I am holding for full 25 years also.
The Strategy Very Simple Strategy I Am Applying in the Stock Market and That Is Smile. That is an ah ah ah my analogy smile as he stands for small in size. So, I always invest in small caps and mid caps. And small and mid caps could be the smallest and could be the small company in that particular sector.
So this is what I stand for and I am standing for in Medium experience. I usually invest in the company where the management has an experience of 15-20 years. I generally I usually don't invest in new companies and all where the promoter is very new. So the idea behind this is that the promoter must have seen or the management team must have seen at least 50 in their journey and in 15-20 years they must have seen at least four-five big rises and falls.
In the economy in the country and in their own you know products and on their company. So they must have learned the lesson from that. And That Is Mi Medium And L Stands For Large In Aspiration. So I usually buy in the company where management if management does not have any aspiration to become like from a regional company to national company I am from national to international company if the management doesn't have that fire in the belly that okay today I am just a 5000 crore company and may be in 10 years I want to become a 5000 crore company if management will not become ah means for example in lakhpati to crorepati then we investors which are buying just a fraction of the entire equity will not become from zero to lakhpati.
So for that, the pie has to become pie has to be very big. So that is why aspiration is the only thing which can really make the company big. So that's all that Aspiration is large in that Aspiration is variant and last e stands for extra large market potential. Even if a company wants to become from Rs 5,000 crore to Rs 10,000 crore, Rs 15,000 crore in the next five, 10 years.
But if the market size is not that big, if the market size is not 50 it is not growing in the same fashion if the market size is not 50,000 crores then the company cannot become that big. So all this is a very simple formula. This is what is applying in almost all my investments. He does it ever since he started showing money in India, 3%.
No, no, say sorry, you are not rubbing some rubbish on my sore hand [laughs] I should be sorry for you brother. No, no, I am joking brother. First of all, you should understand that the selling of FI that is happening, you are seeing it now, but FI has been selling for 3 years brother. The selling of FI that has happened is not new.
At least $50 billion worth of FI goods must have been sold here. Ok? And what happened to the market in 3 years? You see this. Right now, in the empty market, which has started, they have sold goods worth Rs 1 lakh crore within October. Sold in September or October. This has just come and by then the market has already become a little weak.
After saying this, people started talking more about FIIs. We have faced FI for 3 years. First of all, you should understand this. So where has the market reached in 3 years brother? Within 3 years, many shares increased 10 times, 20 times, 30 times in these three years and four years after Covid, so saying this, FI slowly started to end.
Today the corpus of mutual fund has become 7075 lakh crores, sir, where was this corpus of mutual fund of 7075 lakh crores, 3 years ago, ₹000 crores are coming every month, it is equal to the 5000 crores that used to come 4 years ago or 7000 crores, I said this in a TV interview, they said that 2000 crores have come, 17000 crores have come this month, they said 17000 crores, you are talking about a month, 17000 crores will come weekly and there will come a time when 17000 crores will come daily in India, whom are you talking about here, which country are you talking about ?
When people get into the minds of this, then till now the shares were neglected because the people of the older generation worked with the shares without thinking and they wasted money in the share market. So in this sense, the new generation is coming and they are also starting in the same way, whatever they are doing within FAO FNO, their beginning is also like this.
But they wo n't recover until they fall. So what I meant to say was that I told you about this song earlier also. I wrote this song 2 years ago. I wrote this song when FI was selling. He has been selling it for the last 3 years. So understand one more thing about them, brother, the position of FI is 800-900 billion dollars in India.
So if they sold 50-60 billion dollars, what did they sell in total? If they sold it within 3 years, it is the same thing, sir. So there is no fraction at all, brother. Not even 10%. So 5% understood that they sold this. Now it is a different matter that what will happen if they come to sell 95% of the father's property ?
Now I don't have an answer to this brother, what will happen? Hey, what will happen if the roof falls? It should not fall, friend. Hey, I'll just move away a little. So I mean, I do n't have the answer to that. Ok? So this is the first thing I said by saying this. And now understand the other way around this: the goods have been sold and the goods have also been consumed.
Now if he comes to take it, he says that yes, I have to take this 30 billion dollars that have been sold to me after one year. Understand for a minute. Then who is going to sell the goods to them? Where was your second question brother? Of China. Brother, listen friend. I have invested 2% 2.5% 3% money in China, friend.
You are pulling my leg for that, brother, I have invested ₹100, Hindu Chinese brothers, boys will take the money, brother, what will I do now, brother, this is an adventure for me, friend, you go and spend ₹1.5 lakh and pay for Coldplay tickets, I cannot go here and invest 2% of my money in China, understand, first of all I invested 2-3% of my money, secondly there is no patriotism in this.
I didn't buy any in China. I did not spend my foreign exchange. The mutual fund NSC which has been listed on BSE by the Indian Government and SEBI. I invested money on that. What injustice did I do? Tell me this. He said, where did patriotism come into this, brother? Tell me this. And secondly, I still feel that China is the first wonder of the 21st century.
You students who are here to learn from us, you should make every effort to go to China once, go on a 15 day trip to China, you will see, your eyes will be opened, in which world are we living, which skills are we talking about, where are we, do you know China's India, India, I think 40, 40 lakh cars are made in India, 40 lakh cars are probably made by India, I am talking about cars, 40 lakh cars, do you know how many cars will China export this year ?
6 million. China will export 60 lakh empty vehicles. Makes 3 crore vehicles a year. Similarly, whatever other things you see, their scale is a Judantic scale. We can't even imagine. So what I mean to say is that this is just a fun. I've got Coldplay tickets, bro. It will be hot or cold, we will see inside it.
Sir, good afternoon. Hi. Sir, I wanted to ask you something, as you were just saying that the government should spend on infrastructure. If you are doing it then you should invest in it. Sir, the PSU sector was doing well in the recent past and now it has gone down a bit, so should we hold on to it or exit it, what should we do?
No, I will ask my wife and tell you, sir. Hey sir [laughs] I do all the work after asking my wife, sir. Sir, this is a buying and selling question here. Hello you got a question? I do n't know. Actually the thing is that sir, no one knows this. When I sang it just now, no one understood it, so why would it fall while rising, I don't know what would happen to me.
Their future is bright but increase and decrease is the order of the market, sir, you will have to look after that yourself.
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