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the truth is that was in November where rates Peak mortgage rates peaked in the early November well the down 90 basis points since then okay that doesn't really help you a lot junk spreads um down 150 basis points since their peak in early October late September that doesn't really do a lot for you if you're the FED um the 10-year treasury which are you know which you see every day down 60 basis points well that doesn't do a lot of that all these different things being easier since then obviously the stock market since those 3 600 lows up near 10 well that doesn't do much for you if you're the fed and by the way talking about how much the Market's down or not down since 19 before covert we probably got seven eight percent annual returns so this point right now where we're sitting that's not so bad Joe I mean historically now this year is not good but the last three years and I'm not talking to focus lows I'm talking 19 the under 19.
before coven I mean we have reasonable returns for the last three years based on that rate um and you know I don't know if 19 was exactly the end of 19 what are you exactly call a you know a low point in the market before covet's struck so I'm I mean I'm looking at that and I got I gotta I mean we don't have coordinated tightening around the whole world and everybody tightening at the same time too often you just don't and I don't have people telling me they're going to go further tightening you just don't and they don't tell me where they're going to go too often and you just don't and they don't have a two years and two years here below where they tell me gonna go when if they go that way on average so far below it you just don't so I have these you want to call them you know and I understand that you get other people saying inflation's down they should do this and they should do that well they're telling me what they want to do and they know all this stuff that all these other people do because they're worried about this other underlying um mismatched labor market I think I think you know that they're worried about that they may be worried about other things but just they don't want inflation to take hold and they don't want it to get higher you don't want to have a steady state that you think after you do things before you know four percent or four and a half you know four percent caught you know they want inflation at two percent so they're looking at Beyond when the inflation comes down from eight percent to you know it's going to come down to four percent or something like that they don't want to persist in four percent they want to get in front of that a little bit because they're very they're fairly nervous about that they're nervous about it but he's nervous about it the um the ECB is nervous about it you know so it's it's it is what it is so I mean you're supposed to always hold stocks and get looked through these things and own for a long long term because you know to to a certain extent so that does that means if you're stock portfolio is your your range your stock portfolio from 50 to 60 long to 90 long it would probably be less long that's what that means to me again because the average person should not be moving around things like keep some things because the taxes and other reasons you know Warren Buffett would always keep things forever so he doesn't have to pay taxes on it um but for me as a as a hedge fund manager I'm going to lean uh short you know I'll be you know I'll be short bonds and I'll I'm not a great I'm like generally an optimist you know I have just the way I'm that I just have that sort of uh lean that way so it's like I don't I'm not I would probably say I'm leaning short on the equity markets right you know so right now because I think they're you know I think the upside down side just doesn't make sense to me when I have so many people call me so many central banks tell me what they're gonna do what they want to do what they expect to do I mean it has to and and everybody comes people come on and say well this is going on they know that stuff but they're worried about the underlying stuff as you have to worry what they're worried about and by the way if you think that they're wrong you know out there because it's going to go down yeah well maybe you know maybe they'll cost and maybe they realize it and I don't know what they're saying because they can't say it but maybe there will be a you know a small recession of some sort and we'll affect prices and you know and you know with the market listen you see these I saw somebody else on your show the other day they had a 220 price sorry 220 earnings estimate for the s p well these interest rates it's kind of hard to have a higher they were putting a really high model and I'm saying why am I still putting these high multiples of like when I had one percent rates on these things I got to put water bowls through realistically of the market so that's a question of the stock market right now what should be the multiple and Joe you you're you've been around for a lot of markers not to give your age away on TV but um you know these multiples what should the model will be we live through multiples of when I was when for instance when we were talking 2010 the multiple was like 11 12.
back then okay coming out of two thousand money and those were in those rates I mean you know to get to you know this multiple now is you know if you had 220 times 225 times 16 is 3 600 I mean I'm just I'm not suggesting 225s right or and you can see what people are forecasting forecast on your show you know if it's a 16 multiple you know in those days you would have said great going from 2010 and we talked about those days I go to 12 16 that's a 33 increase right
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