저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 미국 경제가 이미 침체(리세션)에 진입했다고 주장하며, 침체는 내년에 벗어날 것으로 본다. 리세션 판단 근거: 실질 GDP 2분기 연속 감소와 3개월 연속 선행지표 하락이 공식 신호라고 설명했다. 월가 다수 경제학자는 2023년 리세션 가능성을 보는 것과 대비된다. 고용 해석: 7월 고용보고서의 50만 명 이상 증가는 과장된 흥분이라고 보고, 대신 가계고용 17만9천 명 증가 등 완만한 수치에 주목해야 한다고 주장했다. 주간 실업수당 청구 증가와 기업 감원 발표도 근거로 들었다. 금리 전망: 수익률 곡선 역전이 침체를 시사한다는 견해에 동의하며, 연준이 내년에 금리를 인하할 것으로 예상했다. 종목 및 방향: 엔비디아는 매출 경고 이후 6% 하락했고, 우드는 이를 매수 기회로 보고 3개 펀드를 통해 6천만 달러 이상을 추가 매수했다. 쇼피파이, 로쿠, 줌도 하락 시 추가 매수한 사례로 언급됐다. 펀드 성과: ARK Innovation ETF는 최근 한 달 약 17% 반등했지만 연초 대비 약 50% 하락, 52주 고점 대비 약 60% 하락 상태다. 보유 전략: 우드는 단기 변동이 아닌 10~20년 관점의 확신 투자(conviction play)를 강조하며 보유 종목 구성을 크게 바꾸지 않았다. 리스크 및 해설: 진행자들은 수익성 없는 성장주가 금리 상승 국면에서 가장 큰 타격을 받는다고 지적했고, 기업들이 성장보다 수익성을 강조하는 환경에서 우드의 고성장 집중 전략이 어긋난다고 평가했다. 제로금리 시기에 시작된 펀드라 긴축 사이클 경험이 없다는 점도 언급됐다.
다듬은 글
well as the markets try to price in jobs and economic data alongside a better than expected but still mixed earnings quarter notorious market bull kathy wood is out with a very bearish take saying a recession may already be here let's bring in alexander seminova on the kathy beat today well guys as we know two consecutive quarters of declines in real gdp are the unofficial definition of a recession but this is apparently the official marker for arkhanvest's kathy wood the arc founder and ceo said monday in an interview with bloomberg that the us economy has already entered a recession and that will be coming out of it next year should point to two consecutive quarters of negative gdp and three months of declines in leading indicators to suggest we're already in an official economic downturn this is of course different from expectations on wall street and the majority of economists who believe we may enter a recession in 2023 pushing those expectations after the blowout july jobs report on friday showed payroll showed a payroll gain of more than half a million last month wood down played the excitement over this report and said that investors should instead focus on the more moderate rise of 179 000 jobs in household employment she also pointed to a rise in weekly jobless claims and company layoff announcements and while the yield curve inversion has some economists predicting will enter a recession next year wood also said that she believes this is yet another testament that the economy is already in one arc invest also expects the federal reserve will quote usher in rate cuts next year arc invests family of actively managed etfs have been hit particularly hard by this year's sell-off in tech stocks which many have tied to rising interest rates the flagship arc innovation has rebounded about 17 percent this past month but remains down nearly 50 percent year-to-date guys so on the tech side of things we have noticed some movement in some big names nvidia seeing a fall and apparently cappy trying to take advantage of that by taking the steak yeah well you know even a recession isn't stopping kathy wood from staying the course on her investment strategy buying the dip yesterday on nvidia would bought more than 60 million dollars worth of the company across three of her funds monday when the stock fell six percent following a revenue warning the move is consistent with our strategy to double down on existing holdings particularly during periods of decline we have seen her do this recently with shopify roku and zoom so we'll see how that turns out for her all right let's see yahoo finances alexander seminova thanks so much well you know on the point of kind of what arc has done so far this year i think it's important just to kind of zoom out here and just take a look at what's been happening with overall arc innovation funds fall right i mean when you consider that this is an etf that's down what fifty percent year to date i mean it's recession sixty percent from its 52 week high right right i mean it's worth pointing that out i think you're right brian i mean we were just talking about this in the break these are conviction plays and kathy what has made it always very clear that this is not about just sort of the short term she sees the you know the 10-year 20-year plan but i mean you have to wonder i was just looking at her you know her holdings right now i mean they haven't shifted that much even in this environment i guess that's what they call a conviction place yeah and i think that this frames a lot of what alex was just talking about in terms of how she's viewing the economy in a recession even though the debate is still out there about whether or not we are in one given the job support that we saw last week showing a strong labor market but when you're kind of indicator and your lens of the world is from the innovation side of things right even outside of the companies that are in the ark innovation etf tech broadly has had a very rough 2022 and the rebound so far in the last six to eight weeks hasn't necessarily gotten better because we're still seeing announcements of companies laying off employees and getting smaller and also also when you think about tech broadly right the ones that have been hit hardest are the ones that are not profitable and these are the companies that are in growth mode that are investing in this innovation that kathy woods talked about that is not an environment where when we're not an environment right now investors are saying yeah put more money behind it i mean how much have we heard from so many of these tech companies who say profitability is now the focus it's not about growth anymore and yet her funds are really focused on those growth at all costs pouring into innovation i mean if you believe in the tech the underlying tech sure you could make the argument even with the declines that doesn't change your outlook because of the way the company is run and you know another important thing to bring up here is we were just showing the max chart of the arc innovation etf i mean it's a remarkable thing to look at because if you were to compare this against the s p 500 a very different story but look at this a massive pop essentially between 2020 and then now and the trend line is almost still the same if you draw it from the beginning of let's say 2016 but kiko what's the running theme for this period from 20 i believe it was 2014 that the ark innovation fund was started zero interest rate policy right they haven't really gone through a cycle like this before and i think you're starting to see what the wear and tear does on tech and high growth stocks in an environment like we're seeing right now
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