저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 주가가 2024년 약 4배 상승(약 $15→$60)한 뒤, 2025년 주가를 PER 기반으로 추정. 2025 EPS 0.47달러, 2026 EPS 0.59달러(성장률 24.74%)를 가정하고 선행 PER 126~100 구간이면 주가 약 $66~71로 소폭 상승 예상. 밸류에이션이 높아 상승 여력은 제한적이라는 견해. 과거 2024년 중반에는 매수에서 보유로 하향했다고 언급.
다듬은 글
paler stock has been on an absolute tear in 2024 Rising close to $60 per share as of this recording that's up from around $15 per share to start 2024 so it's done a 4X in one year but where will the stock be in 2025 by the end of 2025 will it have a similar performance next year give you my paler stock price prediction for 2025 that might surprise some of you in fact I think it will surprise many of you that have been following paler stock so let's take a look and to make my stock price prediction so you can see for yourself and you can determine for yourself if I'm being too pessimistic or too optimistic in this forecast so is paler current share price which as I told you in the beginning of the video close to $60 per share at $ 5956 I also need palent years forward one-ear price to earnings ratio which currently stands at a whopping 126 I also need the Wall Street estimate for what they believe paler earnings per share will be next year in 2025 and according to thos think its earnings per share will come in at 47 cents next year and those forecasts have increased over the last 90 days or so from 43 cents per share so roughly 10% higher earnings per share expected next year for paler right so I also need the growth estimate for palente earnings per share and I'm going to use the growth estimate of 24.74% that Wall Street is expecting for paler stock next year I'm going to use that number to forecast the earnings per share for 2026 I'm going to add this growth rate to the 2025 expected EPS to get to the 2026 estimated eps for paler all right so now that we have the numbers we need to make our stock price prediction for paler stock let's go ahead and look at the model so let me first draw your attention at the 2025 EPS remember that's the Wall Street number they expect from paler at 47 cents per share and then remember the growth rate I will apply is 24.74% when I apply that growth rate to the 2025 EPS I get a 2026 EPS estimate of 59 cents for palente tier stock I need the 2026 estimate because I'm making a forward price prediction using the forward price to earnings ratio so I need the 2026 estimated EPS to predict the stock price in 2025 so if I apply the 59 Cent EPS estimate for 2026 with palente forward price to earnings ratio of 126 I get a price estimate for paler stock in 2025 of $738 now that would be an increase from the current share price of $595 but that's not my base case scenario my base case scenario has palente forward price to earnings ratio falling from the current elevated levels if the forward PE ratio Falls to 100 then the stock price could be relatively flat at $58 per share if it falls even more to 80 the stock price could fall to $47 per share if it falls to 60 then the stock price could fall to $35 per share if you look back at the forward price to earnings ratio for paler over the last year it's traded at a roughly forward price to earnings ratio of 60 for the better part of the last year before exploding higher around August and now after the following after the most recent earnings release where paler demonstrated phenomenal increases in Revenue in profits and in cash flow investors got even more excited about paler stock in the valuation has absolutely soared so where do I think paler stock price will end up by the end of 2025 well I think it's going to be somewhere between a forward price to earnings of 126 and 100 so I do think the forward price to earnings ratio is going to fall however I don't think it's going to fall dramatically because the company has excellent prospects the growth rates are increasing the company's keeping costs under control and it's growing with Enterprises which is its biggest opportunity Beyond governments so I think the stock price Falls between the forward PE of 100 and 126 with an actual stock price between $66 per share and $71 per share next year so you might say well that's not that much of an increase from $60 per share up to $66 per share that's an only 10% increase and that's why I said you're probably not going to believe my stock price prediction I think most investors that are following paler stock are way more optimistic about the stock price than I am going into 2025 I feel it has an excellent business business it's operationally great and it's got excellent prospects in the industry that it's in however I feel these valuations are very elevated right now at a forward PE close to 126 and that's why I feel like the upside is muted for paler going into 2025 going into 2024 I was a lot more bullish about paler stock I had the stock rated as a buy and I had it rated as a buy for several months into the year and then I told investors around the middle of the year that it got too expensive for me and I downgraded the stock to a hold and so I'm a little more pessimistic about paler stock than most investors are not the business I'm very optimistic about the business I'm talking about the stock price because it's already increased by so much I don't feel like there is that much more room on the upside so remember this is for AAL purposes only you should and I'd like to hear your thoughts on where you think paler stock price will be in 2025 and why you think it will be there is it because the forward PE ratio will remain really high or maybe go even higher or do you think that the earnings per share will actually be better than what I'm forecasting here in any case I'm very curious to hear your thoughts in the comment section below







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