저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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엔비디아는 CES 발표 이후 블랙웰 출하 확대와 데이터센터 성장에 대한 우려가 과장됐다고 주장. 크레이머는 엔비디아를 산업혁명급 기업으로 평가하며 장기 성장을 강조. 게스트 Joseph Moore(모건스탠리 반도체 애널리스트)는 블랙웰 수요가 공급 제약 상태이며 하반기 상승 여력이 더 크다고 보고, 2026년 예상 PER 약 29배는 성장성을 고려하면 합리적이라고 평가. 반도체 시장 확산 여부는 데이터센터 외 수요 부진과 관세 불확실성으로 제한적이라고 봄.
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maybe the other thing to mention regarding Jensen are his comments Jim about Blackwell again um the scaling wall more confidence which we also got out of Adella as well talked about uh maybe the the concerns we had in the back half of last year aren't as warranted as we thought I over and over again both KAC Crest the CFO and Jens and Juan were talking about how look we're shipping in size we're shipping in size the big negative had been they were not shipping in size now people wanted them to guide up and that was not the nature of the CES conference some of the analysts just goed uh my friend Ben Rees did compare Tony Dan and moment he does but I saw that they said they worked out together yeah they worked out I thought it was pretty cool but Ben right just asked this question what just says all right really I mean is it longer term and all you keep hearing about when it's longer term is trillions not billions but trillions now can this stock hold up it had one of the most vicious reversals which told me that the 0.30 guys you know the guys who who are gambling and they should go by the way we saw from flutter and DraftKings that the the house is losing just go beat on DraftKings stop it with the actual companies CU you don't know anything uh thepoke with a great stat yesterday was the sixth time in a year where Nvidia hit an all-time high Inay and then closed down 4% plus I mean it's what Nvidia does because the people who own Nvidia it's like the guy who introduced uh Invidia on CES stage called it Nvidia which I continue to remind people is a hand cream that's from Proctor and Gamble and by the way it's so cold you should use it that's Nivea well I know but they they throw in a DAT oh they do okay well it's because they don't even know how to pronounce it I mean used that when I was very no that's not the point the point is the lack of knowledge of what this company does it's the most covered company in the world they okay some of the analysts are good but some of the analysts are just talking about the quarter and these are people who are they are bound by the Four Walls of idiocy this is one of the greatest companies in the world these people want to spire sell Buy sell they don't recognize that Nvidia is doing things that are just running circles around and in AV remember you need three you need a simulation you need a trainer and you need the actual all true all true and Toyota is going to be the I think one of the top five believe that the growth path ahead for NVIDIA is equal to what we've seen I mean Industrial Revolution over and over and over again why can't we believe do you remember did you read that uh about John Garfield where they talked about the telephone and Alexander Gran Bell tries to get it into the Centennial in Philadelphia and only because the Brazilian guys there does he get to represent it and Alexander gbell says you know what this could revolutionize all of uh of how we do things and like the American judges were like who is this clown that's what they said about Alexander ranell yeah I don't think anybody is question whether valuation at the time I mean sell 100 times rule of 40 as I recall that stock got way ahead of itself for a perod of time then it had a a typical head and shoulders and it was really it was a short David understands now Alexander green by the way where was Edison from I find over and over again that when you have the industrial revolutions no one really believes in them and here's Jensen W what people the other day someone said to me I see you like Jensen Wong you guys both were dishwashers it and I said I uh I was bus boy I mean the kinds of things I see with people at Nvidia how's your dog doing my dog died three years ago should I sell the stock heaven forbid they listen to Colac Crest who is not going to one name continues to dominate headlines in the rapidly evolving fields of artificial intelligence and Cutting Edge Graphics enthralling both Tech enthusiasts and investors Nvidia has once again captivated Wall Street with its groundbreaking announcements at say2 25 showcasing the AI supercomputer project digits and the Next Generation black World GeForce RTX 550 series CEO Jensen hang and CFO KCT Crest took Center Stage outlining the company's bold moves forward and painting an ambitious vision of AI that left analysts and investors eagerly clamoring for more information from harand saws optimism to hands Moses man's bullish perspective recent actions by Nvidia suggest that there is something far deeper at work beneath the surface of innovation and advancement stuck with thi video actually rebounding slightly this morning after sliding more than 6% Yesterday by the way what he said about Quantum Computing managed to take out a lot of those Quantum Computing stocks some of the smaller ones like ion Q Quantum Computing retti uh joining us right now for more on all of this is Joseph Moore he's Morgan Stanley semiconductor analyst and Joe I just want to get your take on this i' I've been reading a lot of stuff I mean after Jensen Wong made his comments uh the night before last we actually saw shares a little higher in the morning maybe not by a lot but it certainly wasn't giving back um the the the pullback that we saw later in the day there were a lot of the tech stocks and other big High Flyers that pulled back though after we got stronger than expected jobs numbers just in terms of what the BLS had in terms of jobs openings those jolts numbers that had people suspecting that maybe the FED is going to be more reluctant to cut rates anytime soon and and that that caused all of these big High Flyers to pull back so do you think the pullback in Nvidia shares yesterday was more related to what Jensen Wong did or didn't say or just more related to the overall idea of watching the Federal Reserve and seeing how the econom is doing I mean I think both of those play a role um I think there were also very high expectations around the keynote at CES and you know CES is a trade show oriented around consumer and automotive and there were some really important uh developments that came out of the Kino around those markets but data 85% of the revenue and I think you know there may have been expectations that people wanted to hear more about that um so I think you have some some of those issues but uh you know overall this is still a company in a very strong product cycle and data center wasn't the focus here uh it's investor focused but you know it's still very strong so I think it's it's a combination of some of the market issues that you talked about as well as maybe some expectations issues around the trade show but experienced Wall Street analysts were regaining their faith in Nvidia the Tech Behemoth renowned for its deep learning Innovations and Powerful gpus did not let him down in addition to reiterating a buy position Hans Moses man from rosenblat did so with a price target of $220 highlighting optimistic predictions for nvidia's future Jensen H's keynote was an electrifying Affair depicting a world in which AI progresses from simple problem solv to complex agentic ey tasks each requiring extensive support systems and massive engineering Innovations notably GPU driven deep learning is gaining traction among hyperscale customers a fact that JP Morgan's Harland sir believes will maintain a high demand for nvidia's data center segment e could he say in terms of the data center that the street would really like to hear I know that the revenue is expected for the year the fiscal year that ends uh this month to come in at 113 billion ramping all the way up to north of 200 billion uh by the fiscal year that ends in January of 2027 what what do people want to hear on that front well you know expectations are high uh I think we're two months into the Blackwell cycle the new productss that they just started shipping so I think to think that we were going to get any color on you know gb300 or incremental Blackwell products was was probably just not going to happen this wasn't the forum for that anyway uh and I think so from a product standpoint I think we know everything that we need to know um from a a revenue standpoint you're facing a little bit of a transition here uh that you have black oil demand is very good and you've heard these comments from Jensen in the past on on CNBC talking about you know the level of Blackwell demand being insane and he didn't really repeat those comments but I think the issue that you're dealing with is Blackwell demand is really strong but it's Supply constrained and Hopper the sort of Legacy product still is is the largest portion of that data center business and so I think there we'll still have a couple quarters here where there's meaningful upside but I think the real upside is kind of into the back half of the year when you start getting that kind of full-blown Blackwell ramp so I think you know people would like to hear that uh and I think they did hear that in some sense but I think you know they're they're trying to avoid those kind of really strong statements about Blackwell because it's not the main driver of the quarter uh I think that's the combination of blackw and Hopper so still quite optimistic about how this plays out but I certainly see the upside being stronger in the second half of the year I mean I guess the question is with the stock that has done so well tripled in value last year um how much of this is priced in how much isn't where where are you telling people what's a price Target that makes you feel comfortable what's a price Arena yeah you know at some point this this is less about the sort of phenomenon that this stock has been and a little bit more on valuing a growth company on its growth prospects right and stock trades at about 29 times are estimate for calendar 26 that that would be high if there were any kind of deceleration in the business but I don't think there is even when we sort of go through these transitional uh challenges if you will I challenges maybe overstating it as you move through these transitional issues you're still beating and raising those numbers are still quite likely to be moving higher so I still think stock is reasonably valued with good growth prospects this year and Beyond um and again that the data points that were that support that are the strength in the Blackwell demand and I think it's going to take a while for with AI rapidly changing Industries it's difficult not to see nvidia's stock as a strong investment that can take advantage of both emerging Technologies and Unstoppable market trends this is in line with the company's Journey as seen Through The Eyes of its Visionary Executives and enthusiastic analysts their position as a leader in Innovation is further cemented by their continuously excellent performance in a variety of Industries including gaming and Enterprise the Stock's outstanding Outlook and present momentum indicator promising upward trajectory so much attention on CES and it's the halo effect has almost been as powerful as the Nvidia effect on itself commentary about um about Toyota commentary about Samsung all coming out of Jensen this week yeah yeah certainly so I I mean partly it's what we've seen in semiconductors over the last year or two years right Nvidia and AI have been moving the entirety of the market um and they've been pulling names that either are also involved in AI like Marvel and broadcom um or names that Supply inv video like Samsung alongside them um so it's it's been what we've been seeing or it's a Contin continuation of what we've been seeing I think we talk a lot about Market concentration the same Dynamic exists within semis itself uh you got the sector at an all-time high but only one in five I think uh above the 200 day uh do you expect there'll be a broadening within semis too yeah I I I think the problem is that you have a very robust spending environment for data center AI um and then at the same time we have a not so robust spending environment for almost everything else so whether it's consumer electronics uh industrial applications Enterprise Bend uh they're all kind of lagging and and I think what's not helping uh that portion of the market is there's a whole lot of uncertainty around what we get with the new Administration so uh do you see tariffs that that force uh shift of manufacturing um and because of that uncertainty it it's hard for companies to plan and so I don't see things changing right now I think AI continues to do well uh and everyone else kind of tries to figure out what's going on with what do you think of nvidia's actions lastly if you want to know what corporations like Nvidia have been up to lately click on the next video on your screen I hope to see you there are they guiding their ship for long-term success or do they attract more competitors by setting ambitious expectations
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