저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴 실적 발표 후 주가 하락. 3분기 매출 130억달러(+47%, VMware 포함), 유기적 성장률 약 4%. 4.5조 비현금 세금 충당금으로 순손실 19억달러 발생. AI 매출 2024 회계연도 120억달러 전망, 다음 분기 매출 140억달러 가이던스. 주가는 장후 약 5.7% 하락, 원인은 미확인. 밸류에이션이 3년 내 고점 부근이라 리스크 하방, 현 시점 borderline buy 유지.
다듬은 글
broadcom reported quarterly Financial results that disappointed stock market investors I will review the big highlights from the company's earnings release including the cause of the multi-billion dollar loss on the bottom line the revenue growth and the outlook for the next quarter additionally I'll update my buy recommendation on broadcom stock as of this recording the stock is down nearly 6% in the after hours trading remember I warned investors that the risk was to the downside for broadcom stock following the earnings release because coming into the earnings release the company had an elevated valuation I'll let you know if I think the stock is a buy here on the dip a hold or a sell after I evaluate the results of the quarter I wanted to play the clip for you on my recommendation for broadcom stock coming into the earnings release broadcom stock before or after earnings I would say because of the elevated validation the risks for broadcom stock follow the earnings release are to the downside the risks are to the downside in it so because coming into the quarter broadcom stock was trading at its highest valuation going back some time I said that the risks were to the downside and here's what I was looking at broadcom's forward price to earnings ratio coming into the earnings Rel lease was near the highest point it's been in the last 3 years even though I've liked broadcom stock and even though I've had broadco on June 12th still I said if investors were curious about whether or not they should buy before or after that coming into the quarterly release it would be better to wait until after the earnings releas because the valuation was already stretched and there's always extra risk around earnings releases stocks are more volatile than usual so that being said let's take a look at the company's latest quarterly results broadcom reported revenue of $13 billion for the quarter that was up 47% year-over year now that masks the company's actual growth rate which would have been only roughly 2% if you excluded the acquisition sorry I should say 4% if you excluded the acquisition of VMware and including the revenue from VMware on top of broadcom's Revenue so if you exclude vmware's Revenue broadcom's organic Revenue growth was only 4% in the quarter and I mentioned the multi-billion dollar loss on the bottom line the Gap net loss of $1.9 billion was a result of this interesting accounting switch here where the company in the third quarter included a one-time discret non-cash tax provision of $4.5 billion from the impact of an intragroup transfer of certain IP rights to the United States as a result of supply chain realignment now if you're confused about the wordage and the verbiage of this statement You are not alone this should be confusing for nearly everyone involved and what this is basically doing is broadcom taking advantage of a situation to take some losses on the bottom line by doing some interesting accounting exchanges here certainly they've consulted their advisors and their advisers told them that this would be a way for broadcom to lower their net income in the quarter so as they report a net loss on the bottom line they can carry that loss forward and it'll provide a tax benefit for the company so this is a non-cash event this isn't any cash changing hands this isn't the company actually taking cash from its pockets and giving it to somebody else so it's not cash leaving the company it's a change in the way the company accounted for certain assets or tax assets and that change presented a accounting loss of $4.5 billion which will lower the company's tax bill going forward they go on to say that their cash flow from operations were 4.96 billion in the third quarter and minus subtracting Capital expenditures it resulted in $4 billion in free cash flow which was 37% of Revenue which is a very solid number to be sure broadcom saying they expect revenue from AI to be 12 billion for fiscal year 2024 driven by ethernet networking and custom accelerators for AI data centers additionally they say the transformation of VMware continues to progress very well the integration of VMware is driving adjusted iata margin to 64% of Revenue as they exit fiscal year 2024 and management has been truly optimistic about the integration of VMware into the business suggesting that a combination of synergies and cost cutting efforts will bring vmware's business up to the profit margins that broadcom is used to and broadcom is one of the most profitable businesses in the world with operating profit margins up around the 50 60% range so if the VMware business integrating into the broadcom business is also going to drive that level of profit margin that's going to be very positive news for broadcom because that just brings in a business with with billions in Revenue that generate s generate similar operating profitability now moving on to the guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter and revenue of 14 billion is expected from broadcom that would be 1 billion more than what they generated in the current quarter so a solid increase to be sure and then fourth quarter adjusted eak guidance of 64% is 1% higher than where it was in the previous quarter and an improvement year over-year so the company expecting conditions to improve Revenue to improve profitability to improve everything investors would like to hear from a company they're interested in investing now as I highlighted the stock price is down over 5.7% in the after hours Market I have yet to identify what investors were upset about it could be that tax provision the change that caused the loss of 1.9 billion on the bottom line it could be a lower than expected outlook for revenue and profitability in the next quarter it could be the stock price will recover and bounce Higher by the time this video gets published sometimes when I see a stock price fall by this magnitude I can quickly identify the cause of the stock price decline in this instance however I haven't identified what the cause is of the stock price decline now I've only digested the earnings release I haven't yet had access to the transcripts from the conference call which I will be looking into and I will have updates for you after I evaluate the conference call transcripts but from I what I see so far I don't see the big reason why this stock price should be down by this much other than the fact that the valuation was stretched coming into the quarter broadcom was trading at its most expensive valuation going back several years so maybe investors were not wowed by the company's quarter and so they said well if they're not going to wow us then we're going to give the company a more reasonable valuation not its highest valuation it's earned in the last few years as far as my recommendation coming into the court I had the stock rated as a borderline buy even though with the caveat that I said if you're on the fence about buying before after earnings I suggested to wait after earnings now I'm updating this recommendation on September 5th reiterating my recommendation where I think broadcom stock is a borderline buy the business has excellent prospects the only reason it's not a full-blown buy is because of that stretched valuation that I showed you it's trading at near its most expensive valuation in the last three years other than that it's an excellent business great profit margins in the right business at the right time it's a borderline bu
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