저자: WarrenBuffett·CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
효율적 시장 가설(EMH)의 한계와 가치투자의 본질을 논하는 주주총회 질의응답 영상이다. 버핏은 시장이 자산군 간 가격 결정과 개별 기업 평가에서 대체로 효율적이라고 보지만, 이것이 EMH에 기반한 투자 접근을 정당화하지는 않는다고 주장한다. 과거 EMH가 학계에서 절대적 교리처럼 받아들여졌으나 지난 10~20년간 상당히 신뢰를 잃었다고 평가한다. 버핏은 경영대학원에서도 EMH의 교조성이 약해졌고, 일부 대학이 기업 가치평가 과목을 도입하는 추세를 언급한다. 다만 교수진이 기존 신념을 버리기는 어렵다고 본다. 멍거는 막스 플랑크를 인용해 낡은 세대가 사라져야 새 아이디어가 자리 잡는다고 하며, 하드 버전 EMH 지지자들을 비판한다. 시장이 대체로 효율적이라는 생각은 맞지만 학계에서 그것만으로는 쓸모 있는 이론을 만들 수 없다고 말한다. 핵심은 투자란 기업 가치를 평가하고 그보다 싸게 거래될 때 사는 것이라는 점이다. 버핏은 학생들에게 비효율적으로 가격이 매겨진 증권을 찾아보라고 권한다. 이 영상에는 특정 종목·지수·자산에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 예측이나 목표가는 없다.
다듬은 글
hello I I'm Marie casks from Markham Ontario first off mr. Buffett mr. Munger I'd like to thank you for being so generous with your time every year at these meetings mr. Buffett many in the academic community call you lucky or a statistical outlier mr. Munger I'm not sure what they call you well you're free to speculate on what they call them I know you don't like to forecast the equity markets but maybe you would dare to forecast the evolution of the debate between proponents of the efficient market theory and value investors do you think there will ever be a reconciliation and I'm talking especially about what's taught at the business schools and as an addendum are your designated successors are they outliers as well well we like to think they are and then it may be more outliers than we are the the market is generally and you know I to me it's almost self-evident if you've been around markets for any length of time that the market in is generally fairly efficient it's fairly efficient as pricing between asset classes it's fairly efficient in terms of evaluating specific businesses but being fairly efficient does not makes does not suffice to support an efficient market theory approach to investing or to all of shoots that have come off of that in the academic world so if you'd believed in efficient market theory and been taught that an adapted adopted it for your own twenty or thirty years ago or ten years ago I think it probably hit its peak about twenty years ago you know it would have been a terrible terrible mistake it would have been like learning the earth is flat at it just you would have had you know you'd have had the wrong start in life now it became terribly popular in the academic world it almost became required belief in order to hold a position it was what was taught in all the advanced courses and and a mathematical theory that involved other other investment questions was built around it so that if you went to the center of it and destroyed that part of it it it really meant that people who'd spent years and years and years getting PhDs found their whole world crashing around them I would say that it's I would I would say that it's been discredited in a fairly significant way over the last decade or two I mean you don't hear people talking the same way about it as you did fifteen or twenty years ago but the market generally is fairly efficient in most ways I mean it is hard to find it's hard to find securities that are inefficiently price there are times when it's relatively easy but right now for example it's difficult there I don't know exactly how much its Holy Writ still in business schools I certainly get the impression as I go around talking to business schools that it is far less regarded regarded as as you know sort of unquestioned Dogma that a like it was fifteen or twenty years ago the University of Florida now has some of courses in valuing businesses University of Missouri's putting in one and I think the high priests of efficient market theory are probably not in the same demand for speaking engagements and seminars and all of that as they were a decade or two ago it's hard though it's very interesting it's hard to dislodge a belief that becomes sort of becomes the dogma of a finance department it's it's so challenging to them and you know they have to at age 30 or 40 to go back and say what I've learned up to this point and what I've been teaching students and all of that is is silly that doesn't come easy to people charlie mm-hmm well you know max-planck the great physicists said that even in physics the old guard really didn't accept the new ideas the new ideas prevail in due course because the old guard fades away clinging to the acid entities of the past and that's what's happened to the hard form efficient-market theorists they're an embarrassment to the scene and they will soon be gone Omni the people who think the market is reasonably efficient or roughly efficient of course are absolutely correct and that will stay with us for the long pole thinking it's roughly efficient though does nothing for you in academia you can't build anything around it I mean that what people want or what they call elegant theories and it just it doesn't work you know what an investment is about is valuing businesses I mean that is all there is to investment is you sit around and you try to figure out what a business is worth and if it's selling below that figure you buy it that to my you you can't find of course virtually in the country on how to value businesses you can find all kinds of courses on how to you know how to compute beta or whatever it may be because that's something the instructor knows how to do but he doesn't know how to value a business so the important subject doesn't get taught and it it's tough to teach I think Ben Graham did a go of teaching it at Columbia and I was very fortunate to run into many decades ago but if you take the average PhD in finance and ask him to do value a business it's got a problem and if you can't value it I don't know how we can invest in it so therefore it's much easier to take up efficient market theory and say it doesn't make any difference because everybody knows everything about it anyway and there's no sense in trying to think about valuing businesses that the markets efficient it's valued at them all perfectly about on the second day in that course I mean yeah yeah the first you'll walk in you say you know everything's valued perfectly and and class dismissed so I it puzzles me but I encourage you to look for the inefficiently price you
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