저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장은 인플레이션 장기화로 단기 하락 여지가 있으나, 주식은 장기적으로 인플레이션 헤지 자산이며 고듀레이션 기술주에서 배당·현금흐름 중심 종목으로 갈아타야 한다는 견해. 시장 상황: 나스닥은 1만6천 이상(작년 11월 중순)에서 약 25% 하락, 다우는 1월 4일 3만7천 부근까지 상승 후 두 자릿수 하락, S&P500은 1월 4일 4818을 찍고 두 자릿수 하락. 원인은 연준의 금리 인상. 인플레이션 전망: 통화량 급증 후 18~24개월 시차로 인플레가 구조적으로 내재되어 있다고 주장. 연준이 늦었고 아직 긴축이 느리다고 봄(한 번에 75bp 이상 필요라는 주장 포함). 최근 2개월 통화량 증가율 둔화는 긍정적이나 재정 부양 효과로 올해와 내년까지 고인플레 지속, 2024년 이전 둔화는 어렵다고 전망. 주식 전망: 장기적으로 주식은 실물자산 청구권이라 인플레이션 헤지가 된다고 주장. 긴축 전에는 상승, 긴축 시기에는 부진하는 패턴. 나스닥은 이미 약세장 진입, S&P500은 20% 약세장은 피할 수 있으나 추가로 4~5% 하락 가능, 20%까지 밀릴 수도 있다고 언급. 종목/스타일: 마이크로소프트·애플 등 고듀레이션 기술주에서 벗어나 배당주·단기 현금흐름이 확실한 종목으로 전환 권고(금리 인상 시 장기 듀레이션 자산 타격이 크기 때문). 금리 전망: 장기금리(10년물) 3% 이상, 3.5~4% 이상으로 크게 오르진 않을 것으로 봄. 장기 인플레는 약 3% 수준에 정착할 가능성, 2% 복귀는 어렵다고 전망. 단기금리는 2~3% 이상으로 크게 올려야 하며 장단기 금리 역전 가능성 언급. 리스크/기타: 공식 CPI가 주거비(임대료) 반영 지연으로 실제 인플레를 과소평가한다고 주장, 2022년 실질 인플레 10% 이상 추정. 연준이 과잉 대응(600~700bp)하지 않기를 희망. 2023년 경기침체 확률 50%라고 답변. 인플레 원인은 우크라이나 전쟁보다 연준과 정부의 과잉 부양 책임이 크다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Well, Wall Street continuing to be a focus right now and it's been quite a run as of late. The NASDAQ, which was up over 16,000 back in mid-November, is down about 25% since then. The Dow Industrial Average hit 37,000, almost 37,000 on January the 4th. That same day the S&P 500 uh uh hit 4818. Both of those are down double digits since then.
And all of this is the Federal Reserve moving benchmark rates higher to try and deal with soaring inflation. What to make of it all? Well, only one person we would turn to and that's Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School. Jeremy, great to talk to you again. Happy to talk to you, Dan. How do you make what I mean, obviously there's so many factors on the downside, on the negative here lately that are impacting this.
But what are you making of this latest run? And maybe you more importantly, maybe a little bit of a crystal ball, what are you looking at over the months ahead? Well, as you as you know, I had been predicting this inflation for a long time. I think I was on your show once a year ago on on this. When I saw the monetary burst that was unprecedented that followed the pandemic, I said it's just going to come inflation, you know, 18 to 24 months later.
So, a lot of this inflation is baked in because of the monetary growth. Um and the Fed totally missed it. Uh they you know, and now they're playing catch-up. Uh they're still too slow. They should be moving 7,500 basis points at a time. Um uh uh All that said, there are some little crumbs of good news in the sense that I, who follow the money supply, have noticed in the last 2 months we've had a great moderation in that money supply for the first real time since the pandemic.
That's what needs to be looked at and it needs to be continued. But in the meantime, um you know, the the stimulus that is put in going to crest through, we're going to have high inflation throughout this year and into next year and I don't really see a slowdown until 2024, to be honest. Now, what does this mean for the markets?
Um In the long run, stock markets are are very good hedges against inflation. I mean, the data is incontrovertible on that issue. Uh they are real assets, they're claims on real assets and and do well. When the monetary stimulus was put in before the actual Fed tightening, if they do real well. And then, when the Fed tightens, they do less well.
In the the the whole the whole thing becomes uh they they hedge with a run-up way above at the beginning and then a flattening and then when the inflation's over a continued run-up. So, I'm not surprised at this at all. I do think there's some more downside. Um I don't think but, you know, it it's very hard to know for sure that the S&P will enter a bear market, which is 20%.
I predicted last year that the that the NASDAQ would enter a bear market and it most certainly already has entered a bear market. Um I think I think the S&P has a chance to avoid it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see another, you know, 4 or 5% downward. And it could certainly dip down to 20. You know, motion in the short run, uh you know, can certainly dominate fundamentals.
With all that said, I think stocks are great long-term values. And I have been advocating um for over a year now that people switch out of these high duration um uh tech stocks. And I don't necessarily mean a Microsoft, the Apple, and all those. I mean those that, you know, were, you know, if if, you know, we we might make a profit in 2025 type of stocks in the stocks that were dividend payers and had shorter-term um cash flows because when you raise the discount rate the way the Fed is doing, those long duration assets are going to be the most hurt.
So, going with a 50 basis point increase pattern, which seems like what Chair Powell is looking at obviously this month and probably the next couple of months, what does that miss then at that term? As you said, you'd like to see 75 or maybe 100 to get the ball really rolling. Well, you know, you know, better late than never.
I mean, they they really should have started tightening way last year. So, whether they do, you know, whether they're a month or two behind now is almost not that important. Uh they the inflation is baked in. And by the way, we've had much more inflation than the official statistics have said. I think I've actually actually made that point many times.
We actually had over 10% inflation last year. They were uh the reason is is the Bureau of Labor Statistics is extremely lagged in the way it gets housing inflation into the data. So, it's a catch-up. I mean, the the the housing inflation data, we've had 15, 20, 25% increase in the housing prices, 15, 20% increase in rentals.
If you go look at the official data, it says 5 and 6%. But that's the way they they do it. They only do it when it rolls over on the rental agreements. We're going to have that inflation go in even though we really already had it, but it's going to look bad in the statistics. What we hope for is that the Fed doesn't overreact.
Now, you know, this point is I brought it up first, but this point has been brought up 100 times that, you know, that that the way it's lagged. So, I don't want them to say, "Oh my god, we're not working. Let's, you know, raise to 600, 700 basis points." If the money supply continues the last 2 months of moderate growth, then they they they got to be careful about going overboard.
But really, to stop inflation, you need to bring that short rate, you know, let's face it, way, you know, above 2 and 3%. Yeah. And you and and I'm very honestly, I think you're going to have to invert the term structure, long short rates over long rates. And I think what and the the general public is really seeing it a lot now.
And I say it from two perspectives if I can bring this up. One, I had talked with a friend of mine who is in the restaurant industry and he's talking about seeing inflation 40, 50, 75% on a lot of the things that he has to, you know, purchase or deal with. I went to my favorite diner over the weekend and the breakfast bill was $77 for breakfast.
And I was like and it was me, my three kids, and my mom for Mother's Day. I was shocked. And that's the thing that I think is getting a lot of people in the general public now. You know, these are topics that the public in general is really attuned to. gasoline prices, Dan. I mean, That, too. That, too.
know, I mean, you know, a big car now fills up the tank, it's it's 100 bucks. And that that that is something you remember. Um and yeah, food food and energy, now they did get a bump certainly because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but it was in the works already way before that. If you take a look at the trend of these combined prices and the demands and all the rest, uh and and that's just going to make it worse.
But don't don't blame this inflation on Ukraine. I mean, maybe one or two points on it will be. It is the Federal Reserve and the federal government, which although the initial response to COVID was necessary and good, they just went overboard and overboard. Even the second Trump stimulus package was almost overboard.
And then when Biden came in and did another stimulus package, that was totally unnecessary. And the Fed at that point should have and that was early in 2021, should have said, "Oh, no, we've got to start tightening then." But they let the money run and so you're just compounding uh you're compounding that problem.
Well, and then throw in the fact that you've got the 10-year with the yield above 3% at this point, which how long has it been since we've seen a yield on the 10-year at that level? Yeah, it's been yeah, 3 or 4 years. Um although I I remember cuz I'm old enough that I I didn't even think we'd ever get the 10-year down to 3% because I remember it at 16%.
But uh yeah, in terms of relative past. I I think the how long how high will the long rate go? I don't think it's going to go much above 3 and 1/2 to 4. Um uh very honestly, um because even even though I think I because I think they'll bring inflation down. Don't forget the 10-year is not just this year or next year's inflation, it's 10 years.
Yeah. I don't think we're going to get back, very honestly, to a 2% inflation regime. I I really think the Fed I think we're going to go into a 3%. They're going to say they're going to have a 2% target, but really the long run is going to be more like three. And then by the way, there's some economists have actually said that that's a better target given our economy than a 2%, but that's that's another topic for another day.
Not Nonetheless, I think you got to bring the short rate really much higher. You got to monitor that money supply, make sure that well, I I don't, you know, that I don't want to see it declining. The last 2 months have been moderate 4, 4 and 1/2% increases, which is good. If we can keep on that path, then we will in 12, 18 months begin to get this inflation under control.
Right. So, let me circle back with that because you're really, I think, one of the few people, if the only person I I've heard to this point say inflation 2024. It's really been the consensus that I've heard from a lot of people that by mid 23 2023 maybe the third quarter that we're going to start to get a year you're really believing that we're talking about some point in 2024 that we'll start to get a handle on this.
Well, I think we'll get a handle on it and it'll go down but not down to to some of the two and three percent. I think it could be four to five which is lower than the eight and a half that we have now. You know, the whole question about where we at peak inflation was a little bit I mean we might have been at peak year over year inflation but it won't make you feel good if it's seven and a half in December and the next December it's six and a half, right?
I mean that's still terrible. So whether it's you know, technically a peak or not I just think it will it may be peak or near peak but but I just don't think it's going to be brought down as much and certainly not down to that two percent level that you know, that Powell is talking about without a severe recession which you know, if things really fall off you know, he would he would have to ease up well before that and then we basically have been you know, we'll be stuck in the ratchet of a three percent type of of a of an inflation pattern which I think is a tolerable inflation pattern in in the long run actually but it's it's well above their official target.
So quickly about 30 seconds if you can it where are you on recession right now? Well, I'll tell you what I say Dan I say recession in 2023 is a 50% probability so as a result I can't be wrong. That's a great way to play it both sides of the fence. I appreciate that Professor. Thank you. Hey, great to have you with us as always.
Thanks very much for a few moments. Okay, thank you. Bye-bye. Thank thank you. Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School.
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