저자: 제레미시겔 · 외국인
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시겔 교수는 2021년 연준의 과잉 유동성 공급으로 인플레이션이 불가피했다고 보며, 향후 3~4년간 누적 물가상승률을 20~25%로 전망했다. 연준은 테이퍼링 중단과 금리 인상을 서둘러야 하며 필요시 50bp 인상도 가능하다고 주장했다. 연준 인사와 관련해 파월의 재지명을 지지했고 브레이너드 미지명은 예상된 결과라고 평가했다. 바이든 행정부 입장에서 파월 재지명은 위험 회피 측면에서 유리하다고 분석했다. 증시는 다우 35,000 도달 등 강세를 설명했다. 2022년에는 S&P500 5,000 도달 가능성을 언급했으나 상승폭은 2021년보다 완만할 것으로 보고, 연준 긴축 전환 시 역풍이 있을 수 있다고 봤다. 주식은 실물자산이므로 인플레이션 국면에서 보유할 만하다고 했다. 시장 전체는 과열이 아니며 S&P500은 합리적 가격이라는 입장이다. 핵심 지표로 통화량(M2)을 꼽았다. 통화량 증가율이 두 자릿수를 유지하는 한 인플레이션은 2~3%로 잡히지 않으며, 테이퍼링 중단과 금리 인상으로 유동성을 통제해야 한다고 강조했다. 노동시장은 이직 등으로 임금을 올리는 집단과 연초 3% 인상에 그친 화이트칼라 집단으로 나뉜다고 봤다. 6%대 물가 상승 하에서 후자의 불만이 커지며 내년 초 큰 임금 인상 요구가 나올 것으로 전망했다. 경제는 2019년 수준으로 완전히 돌아가지 않을 것이며, 노동공급 충격은 영구적이라고 진단했다.
다듬은 글
well as we continue our look back at 2021 and looking ahead to next year 2022 a pleasure to be joined once again by wharton finance professor jeremy siegel jeremy great to see you hope you're doing well i am doing well thank you dan give us your overview on how you thought 2021 went from a market perspective well early on in 2021 i saw the burst of the money supply that was produced by the the federal reserve and that really uh clued me in on what was going to happen i i i had never seen such a strong provision of liquidity and i knew it would first go into the markets because spending was repressed but i uh you know had pre predicted that we were going to have substantial inflation in in 2021 and and so what has happened has not surprised me are we past the point where we consider it to be transitory oh absolutely it was never transitory i mean in the sense that it's only going to be a few months uh in fact i have been saying for over six months that i think the cumulative amount of inflation that we're going to have over the next uh three or four years is going to be 20 to 25 now i don't mean that in one year but uh i mean if we could have seven seven seven five five five five uh it's impossible to know how it's going to exactly be distributed but uh when we come out of this i think the price level of goods and services is going to be uh about 25 higher so what do you think that's going to mean for the path of the fed and obviously uh you know the fact that it looks like that you're going to have jerome powell running the federal reserve again for a second term you'll have uh a vice chair with uh lail blaine brainerd uh working with him on this what's that going to mean for the path of the fed in in 2022 well i think the fed is way behind the curve and i've been saying this for quite a while they should have stopped the tapering and sort of started raising interest rates by now i think they're going to have to make a pivot and that perhaps is going to come at the december meeting for a faster taper and a sooner increase in interest rates the fed must get more aggressive will we see then you know incremental increases in rates uh maybe by 25 basis points here as we move through the early parts of 2022.
we may even have to jump 50 basis points because we have inflation rising at uh six seven percent uh you know if you know baby steps is not gonna do it um we we i think we have to probably raise the short rate of four or five percent and uh you know we would have to do that within a couple of years um because uh uh right now as long as the interest rate stays so far below the rate of inflation it just encourages people to borrow and buy goods let me get your thoughts on the move by the byte administration to uh once again nominate jerome powell uh for fed chair yeah i mean i i supported powell i thought actually it was a slam dunk uh i i i think it's a win-win for biden if if inflation is out of control he can blame a republican if it's uh if if he gets it under control he can say it's my choice if he picks leo brainerd then if he owns it 100 and inflation continues then he has to take even more heat uh and uh you know powell has the confidence of wall street there is continuity there's a huge historical record of democrats taking republicans as head of chair of of the federal reserve and let's face it i i have called jay powell the most dovish uh chairman that i know and so uh you know he is not far from uh you know what uh the democrats uh generally support in terms of uh stimulating the economy so it was not a surprise to you that leo brainerd did not get the no not at all i i i was not at all surprised i was always saying i mean i even told people that it was a slam dunk that of course it became as a delay came if he it looked a little closer but uh all the arguments seem to be to keep uh uh uh powell in given that wall street supported him and uh that uh he has somewhat of a foil in terms of uh of uh what might happen at the fed it's gonna be an interesting next year i think as well uh professor siegel from the perspective of you know we're still dealing with labor issues here in this country uh and uh you know you have an economy which is building itself back but still is not where it was uh in 2019 uh and i think from a policy perspective it becomes that much more important for the fed and for the biden administration to really get their ducks in a row here going into 2022 to to really make the biggest push that they can yeah you know you're absolutely and by the way the economy is not going to come back to 2019 we've had a permanent shock to the economy and to the labor supply um that's only partially going to be rectified so the world has changed and we also know that biden has three or four more picks for fed chair uh not not for the chair for fed uh positions on the board and so he still has a lot of opportunity i think that that's another reason why he picked powell i mean he can he has a number of hand-picked uh uh uh people he knows he can get power through the senate and uh so in in this case uh uh they might cut him a little slack in in the other the three nominations i remember talking with you a while back when uh we were talking about the potential of dow thirty thousand so here we are at dow 35 000 and more than that even right yeah and it's been what about a 60 uh bump this year from where we were at the beginning of the year are you are you optimistic that we can have even half that coming up next year well i don't think we're gonna have this has been a great year over 20 on the s p i mean i i i think that i think it's going to be more modest i think there's going to be some headwinds when the fed pivots um but basically stocks are real assets and you want to hold real assets when there is inflation so uh you know i'm i'm saying i you know i could see the s p hitting 5 000 uh in you know in toward the end of next year much more modest game than this year but still a positive gain uh and uh and and the dow attacking on uh several thousand more points i'm not saying it's gonna hit forty thousand i was i was waiting for you to say whether or not you're gonna have a hat that says dow 40k on it you know it eventually happened uh you know uh doubt 35 000 finally happened for kevin hassett and james glassman the book was written in 2000 took 21 years finally happened um but uh yeah i mean you know long-term trends are always uh are favorable for the market still and i do not regard the market i don't regard it as cheap but i do not regard the market as wildly overvalued i'm not talking about every stock but in many many uh the bulk of the market and the s p 500 i think is quite reasonably priced given the the economic circumstances so what are the couple of things you are most watchful of you know thinking about policy thinking about the markets you know this entire mix what do you most focus on as we go into 2022 what's what what is really keying your interest well i look at the money supply i mean my my my history has been monetary theory and policy and it's been out of control and it comes out well it came out yesterday actually we it comes out on the fourth tuesday of every month and um uh although it's slowed a little bit it's still going up at double-digit rates that's not consistent with two or even three percent rates of inflation we must get liquidity under control in the economy the only way really to do that is the federal reserve first to stop the taper and secondly to raise rates that's what i'm looking at if they can do that and stop the growth of this liquidity we'll finally get that inflation under control how much then are you also focused on some of these issues around labor that we've been seeing well i think the labor i i i there's two labor markets those that are active and moving around are getting 10 15 20 raises who's losing now are the people who were you know white collar workers that got their three percent raise in january and now we have inflation of over six percent they're losing three percent they're not going to be so quiet next january they're not gonna be satisfied with three percent next january uh you know you need six percent to stay even with inflation so i think you're going to be seeing some big labor bumps in the coming months professor as always it's great to talk with you and we look forward to talking to you throughout the course of 2022. thank you dan all the best wharton finance professor jeremy siegel
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