저자: 무함마드엘-에리안 · 외국인
요약 보기
2021년 글로벌 경제는 백신 보급 시점에 따라 두 단계로 전개될 전망이며, 1분기 중 유럽은 경기침체가 예상된다. 전반기는 글로벌 경제가 전체적으로 보합세를 보이되 하방 리스크가 크고, 국가별 격차가 뚜렷할 것으로 봤다. 중국·대만·뉴질랜드·호주 등은 회복에 성공한 반면 선진국 일부는 여전히 침체 상태다. 후반기는 백신 보급과 함께 대부분 국가에서 억눌린 수요가 풀리며 강한 회복이 나타날 것으로 전망했다. 다만 장기 실업 등 상처효과(scarring)가 얼마나 남을지에 따라 2022~2023년 이후 예측은 어렵다고 봤다. 중국은 공중보건과 개인행동 통제 덕분에 2020년 몇 안 되는 플러스 성장국이 될 것이며 대외 성장 순풍 없이도 성장할 수 있을지가 관건이라고 평가했다. 영국의 브렉시트 이후 역할과 무역 체계는 여전히 불확실하며, 해체보다 새로운 체계를 합의하는 것이 훨씬 어렵다고 지적했다. 신흥국은 외부 자금 조달은 중앙은행 덕분에 매우 용이하지만, 수출 수요 감소, 관광 급감, 송금·원조·해외직접투자 감소로 정책 난이도가 선진국보다 훨씬 높다고 봤다. 연준과 유럽중앙은행은 완화 기조를 장기간 지속할 수밖에 없는 'no exit' 패러다임에 빠져 있으며, 시장이 중앙은행을 영원한 우군으로 여기지 않도록 기대를 조정하고 비은행 부문 감독을 강화해야 한다고 조언했다. 출연자 전망 요지: 2021년 글로벌 경기는 백신 보급 이후 강한 회복이 예상되나, 그 이전에는 보합 및 하방 리스크가 존재한다. 자산 가격에 대한 직접적인 방향 예측은 없었다.
다듬은 글
well we've talked a lot in recent weeks about what the u.s economy is going to look like in 2021 but what about the global economy muhammad al-arian is a senior global fellow at the water institute for management and international studies at the wharton school he's also chief economist at allianz and president of queen college cambridge and a pleasure to have him back on our show muhammad great to talk to you again hope you're doing well thank you wonderful to be with you thanks for having me thank you so before we look ahead let's kind of look back to 2020 and certainly the global economy has had a lot to deal with how do you view the state of the global economy as we end this year so if this state of the global economy where a patient we are still in icu but we have a clear path not only to recovery but to getting out of the hospital we're still in icu for a fundamental reason that the liberal democracies think of the us think of europe have not as yet been able to balance three competing priorities one is public health two is as normal economic and social interactions as possible and three is individual freedom and because we haven't been able yet to do this we are having a little bit the worst of all worlds we're having high hospitalizations and deaths related to covert we have a restriction on economic and social interactions and we're having people feel that their individual freedoms have been impinged on the word resilience is obviously used quite a bit when you think about economies and and i'm wondering that even with all of the negative impact that we have seen in 2020 it seems like that there's a level of resilience that has been there that to a degree has maybe even made this uh prevented this from being worse than it possibly could have been yes and no so certainly there's an element of resilience that we should celebrate there are countries that have been able to turn the corner think of the china's taiwans the new zealand the australia of this world have been able to do so um there's also been resilience in the corporate sector we have seen actually companies go from strength to strength think of big tent and most of all we've seen resilience in financial markets it is astounding to quite a few people how well financial markets have done and there are different reasons for that resilience and most importantly we have seen resilience in human activity and great acts of kindness but against that we have seen sectors that have been suffering tremendously we have seen an enormous rise in what i call the inequality trifecta inequality of income wealth and the inequality of opportunity we have seen very long lines unimaginably long lines um at food banks telling you that there's still a significant amount of pain and suffering that people didn't have enough household financial security and of course we have seen the health system come under tremendous stress with icu capacity coming down so yes overall we've seen resilience but unfortunately it hasn't been shared by all segments of the population so as 2021 gets started what do you see playing out on global economies especially with a lot of those elements still being a part of what we're going to be dealing with for the next few months so i suspect that we'll have two halves or two parts to 2021 with the determinant factor being when do we get to broad vaccine adoption the first part is the square root sign is the flat sign of the square root we went down sharply we came back a little bit and we're going to flatten out and within that as i mentioned earlier you'll have countries that are doing fine and the other countries that are going to still be in recession europe is likely to be in recession in the first quarter of 2021.
so there's going to be one component where the global economy as a whole is flat with the balance of risk on the downside but massive differences in countries and then the second component will be a much more pronounced recovery that is shared by most countries and it will be more will be led by the advanced economies and certain developing countries and that will be based on returning to more normal economic functioning there's a massive amount of pent-up demand in the system that once we overcome what i call the human counterparty risk the ability of you and i to interact and the ability for us to do normal things again we can unleash quite quite a strong economic recovery but that's going to come only after we have a sense of community immunity or hurting unity so obviously as a lot of people are starting to talk about that that buildup of recovery in 2021 i'm even hearing more and more conversation about 2022 and maybe 2023 and beyond as maybe the years where we really truly see this growth start to kick in so ironically the further out you go the more difficult the prediction becomes why because we're not sure how much scarring is happening what is scarring it's this notion that short-term problems a wound okay they don't heal they become long-term problems so you can think of a company that has liquidity a problem that has a viable business but ends up in bankruptcy that's a very different proposition for the economy you can think of people coming out of high school that don't get a job in the first few in the first year which is the case for 2020 2020 and then cannot get a job later on and suddenly you go from short-term unemployment to long-term unemployment to that horrible concept of permanent unemployment so the big question will be what what's the balance between the inherent recovery and dynamism of an economy that now has a green light on health relative to the scarring or the to the damage that we incur in the short run i wanted to also ask you about the chinese economy because that's obviously a country that is drawing more and more attention these days and the growth that that economy has had in recent years do you see that continuing for the foreseeable future they certainly are going to be the out performer because go back to my basic equation public health economic social interactions and individual behaviors what china is able to do that the us cannot do is impose certain behaviors on the individuals so if you think in terms of equations rather than solving complicated three variable equation china's solving a two variable equation and you and i know that a two variable equation is easier to solve than the three variable equation so china will be the outperformer in fact already in 2020 it will be one of the few countries that will show a positive growth rate in 2020.
think of plus two plus three relative to anything between minus four and minus sixteen seventeen for the advanced world but the big question is the longer term can china operate without the tailwind the strong tailwind of the global economy because it's not going to have that for a while and that really comes down to can it accelerate its domestic reforms with all of this that's been going on in the last few months i think to a degree we've forgotten at least looking at europe they're still brexit and it's going to be interesting to see how that plays out as we as we go through 2021 yeah absolutely and even today there's no clarity um we are a good four years plus after the referendum and there wasn't clarity to what the post-brexit role looks like and i think what the uk is discovering um and other countries have as well is you cannot replace something with nothing it's easier to dismantle something we can all agree on let's dismantle this but it's much harder to agree on what to build instead and when building instead involves other countries and involves a a decision-making process that europe itself will admit is complex i don't think it's a surprise we are where we are but yes that will be another uncertainty that that the global economy and europe in particular and the uk most of all has to deal with how do you think emerging markets are going to be doing in 2021 as we move ahead so it's been the tale of two cities the charles dickens this thought of of that book the best of worlds and the worst of worlds um the best of worlds for emerging markets which i suspect will continue is very easy access to external funding for most countries at very very attractive levels and they have the central banks to thank for that but if you are the typical emerging economy this is what you're dealing with lower export demand because the global economy is struggling virtually no tourism at all a hit in workers remittances a hit in aid and a hit in front direct investment so if you were to do like the olympics and judge the degree of difficulty in terms of a certain thing you're trying to do on the policy front the degree of difficulty facing emerging economies and developing countries in general is considerably higher than for the advanced world if i can as we wrap things up i wanted to bring it back here to the us and talk about the federal reserve if we can for a moment and if you go by some of the recent statements by jerome powell the expectation is that the pattern of accommodative policy is going to continue for the foreseeable future that's absolutely correct you know increasingly whether you look at the federal reserve or whether you look at the european central bank it's increasingly looking like what one of my former um work colleagues chris diana is called the no exit paradigm that you simply cannot get out of this policy paradigm because even thinking about it means that you could destabilize markets so it comes as no surprise to me that the federal reserve keeps on guiding forward that it will remain low for very long they will continue buying assets for very long and the hope is you'll get the policy handoff you'll get a handoff to more fiscal and critically more pro-growth structural reforms that allows the fed to exit slowly in an orderly way but for the next year or two the fed simply cannot get out of this paradigm it finds itself here so then are are there things that the fed should be aware of or maybe tools that they may need to just have ready to go just in case and maybe even as you you mentioned the ecb but other central banks around the world yes absolutely you know if if you had told ben bernanke in 2010 when he initiated the use of unconventional policies for broader economic outcomes if you told him that would still be doing it in 2020 he wouldn't have believed you and i suspect he would have thought twice about the policy move why because he himself in 2010 was very forward-looking and saying it's it depends on quote benefits costs risks and the longer you're in this policy paradigm which of course you have no way of knowing how long you're going to be in it but the longer you're in this policy paradigm the lower the benefits the higher the cost of the higher the risk and i think we have crossed the line where the costs and risks are much higher than the benefits so you've got to think as a central bank as to what else you can do to make that equation less unpleasant and there's a few things you can do and you must do one is what's called prudential policies is recognized that a lot of excessive and irresponsible risk is building up but it's not building up where you normally look in the banking system it's happening in the non-banks so you've got to massively improve your understanding supervision and regulation of the non-bank sectors with others two is your communication you cannot continue to condition markets to think that the central banks are the bffs the best friends forever you've got to sort of condition markets that that is a time specific paradigm that will revert and they have to prepare and certainly a lot more cross-border policy coordination muhammad as always great to talk with you thanks very much for your time and your insight all the best thank you for having me and happy new year everybody muhammad al-arian senior global fellow at the lottery institute at the wharton school chief economist at allianz and president of queens college cambridge
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