저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
2020년 5월 시점에서 Siegel 교수는 코로나 치료제·백신 개발이 예상보다 빨라 질병이 독감 수준으로 완화될 수 있다고 낙관한다. 치료제 임상 진전과 연준·정부의 전례 없는 유동성 공급이 경기 회복과 2021년 강한 성장으로 이어질 것으로 본다. 경제 회복은 4분기 2021년 무렵 시장 예상보다 빠를 수 있다고 본다. 주식은 장기 자산으로 가치의 90% 이상이 12개월 이후 이익에 있어, 올해 이익이 크게 줄어도 주가 하락폭은 제한적일 것이라 본다. 이익이 40% 감소해도 그 정도로 나쁘지 않을 것이라는 입장이다. 유동성 급증으로 인플레이션이 발생하고 장기 금리가 2021~22년에 걸쳐 상승할 것으로 예상한다. 10년물 금리가 0.5%에서 3~3.5%까지 오를 수 있으나 전후 기준으로는 여전히 온건한 수준이라고 본다. 연준 기준금리는 장기간 낮게 유지될 것이라 본다. 특정 개별 종목이나 지수에 대한 직접적인 가격 목표는 언급하지 않았다. 미국채 10년물 금리 상승(채권 가격 하락)을 가장 명확히 전망한다. 리스크로는 치료제·백신 개발 실패 가능성과 2차 유행 가능성을 인정한다.
다듬은 글
I am optimistic that there's going to be therapeutics and/or vaccines that are going to mitigate this disease certainly a lot sooner than the doom and gloomers have led us to believe. I mean two years, three years, four years in the way that by the third quarter, we might know how to treat this disease enough to sharply lower the death rate, make it into a bad flu.
And as we know, there's been really some startling developments in second stage trials by firms that are now taking place, third stage trials for a June schedule. This is absolutely astounding. Yes, it is true that all of these could prove barren and none of these could work, but the odds are that we are going to have a lot of mitigating therapeutics.
Secondly, the support by the Federal Reserve and the federal government has been unprecedented of the magnitude that in many ways far exceeds the financial crisis, which was the worst recession since the Great Depression. And I believe that the liquidity that has been provided into the economy, once confidence begins to return and we open up, is going to make for a very strong 2021.
Exactly, when is it gonna begin? It depends on, again, progress against the virus, whether it returns in October. There are a lot of unknowns, but I believe fourth quarter in 2021, we're gonna be surprised on how fast the comeback is in our economic activity. I love economic data, I look at it like a hawk, but very honestly, it hasn't interested me that much.
I know what has happened. I knew this was going to be a horrible, record-breaking employment report that we just experienced. This is all the rear view mirror. Actually, when I get up in the morning, the first thing I do is look at the virus statistics. Europe is six, seven hours ahead of us. They've already collected the news, what trends are happening there, what's going on on the vaccine therapeutic front?
That to me is far more informative to what's going to happen to the economy and the financial markets going forward, than looking at durable goods three weeks ago. That's another thing I look at, I look at what's happening to the states that are opening up more aggressively than other states. I look at countries in Europe that have opened up in a great degree.
Sweden, of course, is like the canary in the coal mine, in never locking down but still observing social distancing rules. How are cases there? These are all natural experiments. Florida at this point has less, it’s early, but has less cases than was expected, given that the governor shut down late.
What does that mean? California, not nearly as many. It did get to Washington state, but Cuomo, he was right when he said it came from Europe. Everyone thought that this virus was coming from China. Very little of it in the United States came from China, almost all of it came from Europe. We had two million people come from Europe between January and March, and they seeded it in New York, and that's why that's the hot spot.
And then it jumped everywhere there. But every one of these states, every one of these different countries is itself a laboratory that we could look at to give us a clue about how this virus spreads and what the outcome is going to be. Way early, before we knew what was gonna happen but feared for the worst, I made the following point, I said that stocks are long-term assets, where over 90% of their value is due to earnings more than 12 months in the future.
So in other words, even if you wipe out 100% of their next 12 months earnings, but you say it'll go back to something like normal after that, that leads to an 8% decline, 9% you can just go through the math, it’s a simple present value formulation. So if we do recover, we shouldn't go down as much as earnings this year, anywhere near, even if earnings slump 40%, I don't even think it's gonna be that bad.
So again, because they’re long-lived assets, I think that is one of the important factors. The second factor is the fact that we have created unprecedented liquidity. The Fed came in full force, the government's transfer programs, and not only PPP, but tax rebates and enhanced unemployment insurance.
We can go on and on and on. It's unprecedented. This is putting trillions of dollars into the pockets of consumers and businesses. I look at the monetary statistics, I'm astounded. They are jumping so much faster than they did in the financial crisis. And I think markets are smart. I think the stock market is looking at this saying whoa, this is a big push.
When we come back, when there's a little more confidence in there and people start saying, you know, hey, there's some treatments, not as bad, we don’t have a vaccine yet, but, but, but. We may be very surprised on how strong demand increases. When we look back, those March lows of less than a little half a percent of the 10 year is going to be the lowest in decades, if not generations.
I think interest rates are gonna start rising, not the fed interest rates, the fed is gonna stay low for a long time, but I think all this liquidity is going to cause us some inflation, and I think bond owners are gonna say, whoa, whoa, strong economy, more inflation, I'm not gonna take half a percent, I'm not gonna take one, one and a half, then they go to two, then they go to two and a half, then they go to three, three and a half.
I think we're gonna see a rise like that. And I think it's gonna go over 2021–22. We’re gonna see a rise in those long-term rates, not extreme, still moderate by post-war standards, but certainly a definitive change in direction.
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