저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 파월 발언을 해석하며 금리 인상 종료 가능성을 시사. 성장 목표를 '추세 이하'에서 '잠재성장률 이하'로 재정의한 것을 비둘기파적으로 해석. 국채 10년물·2년물 하락으로 불스티프닝 언급, 12월 금리인상 확률 하락 제시. 주택시장 경고 및 하우스해크 펀드레이징 홍보 병행. 나스닥 반등, AMD·엔비디아 보유 언급.
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Wow first things first with jpow no papers no iPad this time a teleprompter to read off his script he's changing things up a little bit but he's also changing some things up with his wording and this is a big deal the first thing he says he has his eye on 8% mortgage rates housing was something he really hit on multiple times here housing flattened out at the moment now his quote Mind's Eye goes to the near 8% mortgage rates and quote we're getting reports the effects of this High mortgage rates on housing quote could be quite significant that is a big warning flag for the housing market and it's one that uh my startup which has a fund raise ending today we are ready to take advantage of we're kind of excited about that bring more housing in the market but learn about that at house.com read the offering circular the uh fund raise actually closes tonight at 11:59 p.m.
so learn about that tonight or at house act.com but anyway talking about jpow he vacillated a few times by saying interest rates right now are restrictive but we're trying to get confident that we are sufficiently restrictive enough he suggested once that he was committed to achieving sufficiently restrictive rates it was sort of confusing because he's saying rates are restrictive so are they sufficiently restrictive I think he's purposefully trying to be a little vacillating in in his wording here or vacillating in his wording because he doesn't know that's the thing he even went as far as suggesting the summary of economic projections we get to the FED meetings are good for like the day they write them and then you throw them away the dot plump basically has been wrong every single time they've written it every single projection they've given has been wrong uh pretty much so who cares about the projections the point is what is the snapshot for today the snapshot for today sounds pretty well like JP was comfortable keeping rates here and just watching the progress we're making on inflation and jobs continue seeing more of that Supply chains uh supply chain normalization lead to disinflation what was really interesting though was how he redefined the economy and the next phase so this is going to take a little bit of thinking so follow along with this first of all he said for like over two years now that the econom is probably going to have to grow below Trend those have always been his words he's always been saying we got to get the economy growing growing below Trend and everybody's like all right well the trend is 2% so what you're saying is the economy needs to go below Trend well today he actually totally redefined this and this was like yet another Drome Powell flip-flop it's kind of like one day the jolts report matters and then the jolts report doesn't matter anymore one day you know one survey matters and the next it doesn't matter anymore you know it was like just a few months ago he's complaining about the employment cost index and how we got to see that come down today he's like ah it's pretty good we're doing good on the ECI which was actually surprising because just two days ago when the ECI report came out employment cost index the survey was 1% came in at 1.1 and JP's like H that's reaffirming the downward Trend we're doing good here but going back to this redefin he just came up with today I feel like sometimes he just pulls this stuff out of thin air but anyway now he's saying well we're not actually saying the economy has to go below 2% growth what we're saying is we want the economy to be below its potential growth oh good lord okay so how do we understand this well a simple way to understand it is with numbers let's say that right now in Q3 the econom is growing at 4.9% let's say potential growth for the economy for the next year is 3% okay trend is 2% potential is 3% he's saying well we just want the economy to grow below that potential now which is actually a doish thing to say and it's probably why towards the end of this uh event the NASDAQ started rallying straight up basically that's probably why because JP's really relaxing this idea that oh yeah we've got a lot more work to do on rate hikes I think we're done I think by this redefin he's made it pretty clear we don't need to keep raising rates he's comfortable if things continue the way they are inflation's going to continue trending down it already is trending down and he's comfortable that we're on a good Trend however he also expects it to be lumpy you know I kind of think about it like weight loss you know like you go exercise a bunch and you're like why am I not losing weight why am I not losing weight and then all of a sudden it's like you get on the scale and you're like whoa all of a sudden I weigh 5 lbs less you you know how like weird and lumpy weight loss is you know it's not like you're losing half a pound a day and you're seeing that gradual transition down that's actually what makes weight loss hard and frustrating because it's like you work out hard and it's like it's not changing anyway that lumpiness I think is what JP's conveying here that look like we're doing good he seemed very bullish about that actually today dare I say doish like look hey we're doing good man jobs are coming you know into balance we've got inflation coming down let's just stay on this trend in expectations are good oil's not skyrocketing because of the Middle East Brent is at 8482 right now you realize that's like the trend for the year it's been a little below it's been a little above but nothing basically no reaction from Israel in oil prices right now which that's historically what happens when Israel has problems in the Middle East and oil markets don't react too much but people thought maybe this time would be different so far it hasn't proven to be the weird thing though that he said is he said right now the disinflation we're seeing is probably the supply chain portion of the disinflation he's worried that that might not get us all the way to 2% that we're actually going to have to see labor markets softening to get the extra like half% or the extra 75 basis points to break us down to 2% that part I think is a little bit of a risk but it's not one I think we can really speculate on now because it's so long away like let's get this Supply chains 100% imbalance my opinion is you probably don't actually have to break the labor market that Supply chains and capitalism and the disinflation of how capitalistic markets work will drive that disinflation down to 2% without the need of breaking the labor market I believe that's true because of the decade prior to the pandemic not just the decade prior but really the past 40 Years of opportunistic disinflation now J pal made it clear though that while he doesn't know that is a con concern of his and the Committees that they are going to have to do more in terms of breaking the labor market to really get the last bit of inflation down that last bit of weight loss that last little bit of starvation that to get to your goal fortunately that's still a ways out that's probably something we're going to be discussing next year around this time because we're still seeing the effects of Supply chains in the labor market coming into a balance where they're actually leading these price declines or the rate of increases to decline remember we've had a lot of inflation but that's not the concern here the concern is the stability of prices and bringing those price hikes back into level and that's what we're seeing in earnings calls and Company earnings reports across Industries with the exception of ski resorts and Aerospace where you still have these supply chain issues now when we look at uh our uh bingo card this is what I got for Bingo we talked a little bit about Congress and a potential debt sealing crisis not a lot we talked about the Middle East talked about being open to Future rate hikes though I don't really think that is is a big thing uh or a big priority the FED remember Jerome Powell opened for the first at least what I think is in the first time Jerome Powell opened with we want maximum employment and stable prices and he reiterated the maximum employment thing two or three times but really through some emphasis on that maximum employment I think they're really proud right now that they have maximum employment jome calls it historically significant that they're not seeing the labor market roll over yet and the fact that now if you couple you know a strong labor market with the fact that he's saying well we don't have to be below Trend which is what he said like 10 dozen times before now he's just saying we just need to be below potential that's insane okay that is such a redefinition it is it's it's a doish redefinition that's just the way to look at it so we didn't get bingo at least the way I saw it we didn't obviously we get any kind of talk about fate I put it in the corner because I didn't think we were going to get that anyway no Alan greenpan no Paul vulker no Arthur Burns uh we didn't get the willingness to cut without employment going up because there was no talk really about even talking about cutting no iPad he was on time the recent surgeon yields yes does some work for us the tightening of financial conditions yes does some work for us we did get this below Trend growth discussion which is what we've already discussed brief mention there of the UAW uh no no real talk though about that turning into wage and doesn't really matter cuz we didn't get Bingo anyway Goods disinflation continuing we didn't get talk about that we didn't get talk about housing disinflation but we got hints that some that that there was going to be some pain coming to the housing market again I think that's going to be a great opportunity for house hack we're really discriminatory with our deals right now picking up on Fear and it's it's a great opportunity like for example we just got a house a model almost a model match to a house that's sold next to a busy road for $817,000 we got it for six well 605 and this is like crazy I mean how much money is is in that spread uh and that's insulation in the event Market it's correct right it's great anyway uh uh deflation we didn't mention deflation we didn't mention disinflation Services disinflation we just didn't have that discussion today he was asked about a pause he didn't use the word pause didn't use the word soft Landing this was a big deal he said they did not put recession back in their forecast they have little forecasts in the background they didn't talk about recession being back and that's again why I think you know if a recession is going below this zero level right here if that's a recession and Trend growth is right here 2% and right now the economy is at 4.9% you know and maybe potential is like 3% he wants us to be around here which means we're not really knocking on the door of recession as jpow says in the short term or in the near term so they're not seeing a recession and there was definitely a time last year where JP's like yeah we might be going into recession obviously we touched on banking banking stability that was pretty basic we think that fed term uh funding Bank term funding program will last for a while uh increase the supply of workers 25 to 54 big increase over here supporting uh some of the easing in labor no pressure on jolts having to Come Back in Balance remember he's kind of flip-flopped on that which is great we'll take it I love the redefining of below potential because it's bull it implies a less hawkish fed going forward uh we also are seeing treasury yields fall right now what we should look at is the uh Fed rate monitor just to see what the December forecast is looking like my guess it's going to go lower from a 25% chance to lower the 10e is plummeting right now could be a time for TMF look at ticker TMF but uh TMF should be doing uh well with an 11 basis point drop in the 10-year the two years dropping 13 basis points when the this is actually a ooh wait a second when the 2year drops more than the 10 year and both are going down this is a bull steepening yield curves right now are telling you bullish steepening of the yield curve you could Google that one it's and it's it's a little complicated and annoying and and and how how it's all calculated and stuff but once you once you know it it makes sense but the bottom line of it is that's what you want a a bull steep in you do not want a bare steepening a bare steepening is where you have less inversion but it's because the 10e skyrocketing that's what we just went through the last two months of Hell in the stock market uh so the bull steepening that's actually good every meeting is basically going to be live that's not a surprise uh that they'll sort of decide meeting by meeting what does the monitor say right now the monitor for December uh it just dropped from 25% chance of a rate hike to 20% in January AR just dropped from a 32% chance of a rate actually 36% chance of a rate hike all the way down to about 25 26.7% so you're definitely seeing a compression there I think this is extremely clear that the Federal Reserve is at Peak unless some data comes in like really crappy November 13th is when we're going to get our next CPI report but I really need you to mark your calendar for this Friday obviously you know today we have the expiration of the house hack fund raise uh email us at IR at house Haack if you have questions ideally before 5 so we have time to respond uh but anyway you've got I I'll be up all night probably just responding to emails and trying to help as well and but uh this Friday you need to pay attention we'll be covering this live 5:30 a.m.
nonfarm payrolls okay payrolls report we're expecting 3% increase in month-over-month average hourly earnings up from 0.2 in the last expect the year-over-year to be 4% and the change in nonform payrolls to be 180,000 uh again him thinking that uh we we will need to see some kind of additional disinflationary work from the jobs Market is just going to mean higher for longer unless Supply chains can do all of the disinflation for us and no recession back in the forecast the housing warning was very very clear today availability of goods and Autos higher but durable good spending lower surprise surprise those are like cars and washing machines or solar panels or whatever all those obviously just wrecked right now uh some people say stay the hell away from all of those other people say it's a great time to be buying those uh let's see here uh looking at the yield curve is confusing sometimes looking at some of your commentary here AMD 108 AMD it just shows you when you have a good earnings report and then it goes down in after hours in skyrockets the next day the stock market is insane that thing's almost up 10% right now I've got a position in AMD in Nvidia uh let's see here uh great thank you so much okay good yeah hey look thank you so much everybody for being here this is fantastic what is this somebody's talking about house hack raising at a one to one valuation let's go house that's true that's almost unheard of in the Venture Capital space I I can't think of another company that's ever done that yeah yep okay good so uh that's it folks I really appreciate you being here I love youall look I know it's shitty times when the stock market goes down you know I like it Everything feels like crap uh when your portfolio is going down it's it's so hard but I I really I really want you all to think to yourselves you're going through life with a shield and you're getting beat up okay like everything's beating on that Shield hard you just you got to keep putting one foot in front of the other we're going to get through this you're not going to forget this time of your life though I promise you this is going to be a time when you look back you go damn that really was a hard time it's supposed to be it's supposed to be and it's because of the crazy money printing we had because like we had it's basically the hangover you know we partied so damn hard in 2020 and 2021 now we're dealing with like the 2 threee hangover and hangover sucks man like you just want to like lie on the floor and and like go to sleep and and you got a headache and your tummy hurts it's like it all sucks but keep going like we're going to get through it okay I love yall uh and I wish you all the best now let me read this crap Market it's just commentary you got to look at that yourself I'm not vetting the information the security and including those that have been mentioned in this video potentially uh oh yeah and I have to say that in any of those publicly traded companies good Lord thank you so much appreciate you all we will get through the hangover I promise we will do it together everybody will have their own strategy but we we'll do it together and I ain't going anywhere I'm not leaving thanks
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