저자: Luke · 외국인
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결론: 아크 인베스트(캐시 우드)는 비트코인에 강한 낙관론을 갖고 있으며, 테슬라 등 기업의 비트코인 편입이 비트코인 가격과 관련 주식 전반에 큰 영향을 줄 수 있다. 아크의 비트코인 노출: 아크는 2015년부터 비트코인에 관여했고, 규제 문제로 직접 보유 대신 GBTC(그레이스케일 비트코인 트러스트)를 통해 간접 보유 중이다. GBTC는 600만 주 이상, 약 2억 달러 규모로 보유 중이라고 언급됐다. 캐시 우드의 전망: 발언 인용상 매우 강세이며, 장기적으로 비트코인이 40만~50만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 본다(현재 고점 약 2.8만 달러 대비 약 20배). 이는 장기 견해로 분류. GBTC 프리미엄 문제: GBTC는 실제 코인 직접 매수보다 약 25% 프리미엄으로 거래되어, 투자자가 비트코인을 그만큼 덜 보유하는 셈이라고 지적. 테슬라 변수: 일론 머스크가 트위터에서 테슬라 현금 일부를 암호화폐로 전환하는 방안을 언급했고, 소문으로 이미 진행 중일 수 있다고 언급. 대규모 편입(현금의 20% 이상)이면 주가에 큰 충격, 소규모(1%)면 화제성 정도라고 봄. 기관·빅테크 편입 시나리오: 비트코인 시총은 약 5,000억 달러 수준으로, 애플·마이크로소프트·페이스북 등의 현금성 자산만으로도 전체 비트코인 매수가 가능하다는 논리. 이것이 강세론자들이 30만~50만 달러를 주장하는 근거. 포트폴리오 영향: 기업이 암호화폐를 보유하면 주식에 '주가 강세/약세' 층위가 하나 더 생겨 트레이딩이 비합리적으로 흔들릴 수 있으며, 투자 방식 자체가 디지털화 이후 최대 변화가 될 수 있다고 봄. 금 vs 법정화폐 논리: 법정화폐 몰락을 주장하는 금 투자 논리에 대해, 주요 국가들이 달러 기축을 버리기 어렵고, 정부가 언제든 암호화폐를 규제·과세할 수 있어 법정화폐는 존속한다고 봄. 암호화폐는 정부에도 필요한 부가 창출 수단으로 존속 가능. 진행자 개인 입장: 암호화폐 보유를 검토 중이나 순자산 전체를 걸지는 않겠다고 밝힘. 비트코인 단기 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
well what is going on guys luke here today and i want to talk about arc invest buying bitcoin but with one huge catch and guess what bitcoin also ties in with tesla right now and it will not only affect your tesla stock but your entire portfolio massively moving forward and is bitcoin or any other crypto even right for you and i to buy in the first place i'll give you all that information as i have packed this video with a ton of value and i'll ask for in return is for you to gently tap that like button real gentle like and subscribe if you haven't done so already arc has actually been involved with bitcoin since 2015 and you know back then they actually bought coins but because of a bunch of government rules and a bunch of crap like that they had to move away from that and own it indirectly so where does ark see it now today in 2021 i'll let kathy tell her yourself from this clip from a recent interview she just had i'll also link it down in the description if you want to see the whole thing as she discusses all kinds of things she is bullish on moving forward can you put a price on your level of bullishness we are extremely bullish uh our confidence in it has gone up since 2017 because what we saw as as it dropped from 20th i mean seriously guys she is just so smart and even though she won't return my messages i think she will come around to me one day wait zooming on that right there what is this did i just see that can you guys see that all right before we overreact i'm gonna assume that's her brother in that picture moving on so as you can see right there from that clip she is extremely bullish on bitcoin so i went back and did a little bit of research and actually found out that she thinks bitcoin will eventually hit 400 to 500 000 per coin which even at today's all-time highs at 28 000 or whatever the heck it is going up to those levels is a massive move like a 20x move or so so to get around all the government rules we actually talked about earlier arc is actually holding the ticker symbol gbtc there it is right there they hold over 6 million shares of this worth almost 200 million dollars so this isn't a small position to say the least so what is the catch i mean if ark's buying i'm in too and the shares of this is actually cheaper than trying to buy the whole coin and it's much more trustworthy than some of the sites out there where you can buy and trade bitcoins crypto is a very complex world and this seems to take most of the complexity completely out of it and you're right it absolutely does but at a cost when you purchase your shares of gbtc you are actually paying a 25 premium for that privilege so you're not actually purchasing as big of a portion of bitcoin as you think you are and at 25 that is a massive premium to pay and i normally would never pay that for anything i buy ever but given what i will lay out for you guys next right here it may make some sense to get the exposure even at the higher cost but how the heck does all this time with tesla well once again elon and twitter move markets as he was discussing moving some of tesla's money into crypto on twitter there are many great videos out there about how tesla would convert some of its cash to bitcoin or other cryptocurrency but the gist of the store is exactly that tesla converting some of its cash or assets into crypto it's actually a very interesting concept for sure which led to many other videos discussing the impacts of such a transaction yes square and other companies like that hold it but remember they also allow the transactions on their platform so it's a little bit different than tesla choosing to hold it as cash reserves but there's nothing out there that says they cannot do it either at least for now there's nothing that says they can't so if tesla actually decides to do this and there are rumors circulating that elon is already doing it again there are rumors so slow down there will be massive effects on your portfolio and not just your tesla stock but all of the stocks that you own actually there is a great opportunity to affect your portfolio by getting four free stocks with weeble when you open an account and deposit a hundred dollars until january 15th now if elon makes this move and puts a large part of the balance sheet into bitcoin or another crypto it will cause a seismic shift in the stock price if he does just a small amount you know like one percent of their cash or something like that that's a much smaller move and it'll be more buzz than anything but converting just a large chunk of their cash i mean say 20 or more would really move the stock that's because for every crypto bull out there and there are many in the tesla ev tech community here on youtube and online and basically everywhere there are many other large institutional investors and others who are strongly against crypto now yes i agree crypto is finally getting some shine but it's still not mainstream yet now having said that if tesla goes this route and it is successful and other tech giants follow suit even if it's just you know one or two percent of the cash it will send bitcoin skyrocketing right now bitcoin's market cap is you know what right around 500 billion or so but how much cash is on the balance sheet for all the tech companies out there i mean heck apple is close to 200 billion microsoft and facebook are over 100 billion so really those three right there could almost buy all the bitcoin in the world and control the whole thing and this is exactly where the bulls get their argument from about bitcoin going to three hundred thousand four hundred thousand or five hundred thousand if corporations decide to jump in just look out and that is completely plausible that they decide to do that if tesla jumps in first but it would open your portfolio to say the least and let me explain why can you imagine the battles out there in trading land if this were to happen not only do you have the bulls and the bears of every stock you own and every stock has those now you have an additional layer of bears and bulls for the amount of crypto your stock holds at least when it first got going it would make for some completely irrational trading to say the least and would fundamentally shift investing altogether to me it would be the single biggest shift in investing since investing went digital alright so here's where i stand on all this and what i am doing personally i have been hearing for over 20 years to invest in gold because fiat currency is on its way out the door and gold is where you need to be and the same identical arguments are being made with crypto now and a lot of the gold investors have actually just moved into crypto instead but here are the two undeniable reasons why fiat currency will not die that you need to think about but also keep in mind that doesn't mean there isn't a place for crypto too number one and tell the world as a whole meaning every major government decides to get off the us dollar standard the us dollar and other currencies traded in the us dollar will hold relative value you would need every government of every g20 country to agree to trade in crypto instead of dollars and by default that also means all of those governments agree to give up control and have a completely free market where they have no way to manipulate it that just is not happening in my opinion other countries would rather negotiate with the us and be able to control their own currency before ever losing that control and number two crypto and any other method of payment among large corporations and governments could be legislated completely away tomorrow if it became a real big threat the us government could just simply ban all companies from holding crypto or they can just choose to tax it out of existence the power lies with the governments in the end does that mean crypto is going away or the government is looking to do that absolutely not and there's no reason to i actually think the governments need cryptocurrency to help maintain fiat currency there are just certain needs that fiat currency cannot fill that cryptocurrency can fill perfectly crypto is another creation of wealth and they want that to continue they just do not want to replace fiat money so for me holding crypto is something i am personally looking at doing i just need to do more research and make the right decisions for me and my portfolio but i can tell you right now i am not risking my net worth on it like i'm hearing others that are doing because you know it's guaranteed to go to the moon like every other penny stock out there and i feel arc views it this same exact way as i do and they are willing to pay a 25 premium to hold it so clearly they see massive upside i mean me and kathy are soul mates so it just makes sense that we're on the same page so let me know down in the comments your thoughts about crypto and fiat currency and we will see you in the next one
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