저자: Luke · 외국인
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하이퍼인플레이션 우려는 과도하며 실제로는 연 2~4% 수준의 인플레이션이 나타날 가능성이 높다는 주장. 마이클 버리는 MMT·대규모 부채·M2 증가·경기재개 수요로 하이퍼인플레이션이 독일 1920~30년대식 경제 붕괴로 이어질 것이라고 트위터에서 경고했고, 금과 비트코인도 안전하지 않다고 봤다. 영상은 이 주장을 소개하며 대체로 반박하는 입장이다. 근거 1: 2008년에도 대규모 통화 발행이 있었지만 미국 인플레이션은 오히려 하락 추세를 보였다. 연준 대차대조표 확대에도 소비자물가는 안정적이었다. 근거 2: 인플레이션은 소비자물가가 아닌 자산가격으로 흘러갔다. 부동산은 2008년 이후 약 56% 상승, S&P 500은 약 400% 상승(연평균 15% 이상 수익)했다고 제시한다. 부의 불평등 확대가 자산 인플레이션과 연결된다고 언급하며, 인플레이션이 과도해지면 연준이 금리를 올려 통제할 수 있다고 본다. 금리 인상 우려만으로도 주식시장이 크게 흔들린 사례를 들었다. 달러의 기축통화 지위와 페트로달러 등 추가 요인도 언급했으나 상세 설명은 생략했다. 투자자 대응으로는 생활비 절약, 나쁜 부채 회피, 부동산·우량주 투자 등 기본 원칙 유지를 권한다. 영상 말미에는 유료 프라이빗 그룹과 강의(무료 제공 예정 강의 2종 포함) 가입을 적극 홍보한다.
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what what is going on guys luke here today and are all the predictions of hyperinflation completely true i mean we printed more money quicker than ever before and there are many smart people like michael berry who seized the engineering so let's explore all this and find out the truth and what you should do about it and i'll ask foreign returners that you know you just gently or not so gently smash or tap that like button and subscribe if you haven't already and for a limited time only the private group is still on sale where i just added my complete building wealth with stocks course for free that's normally 300 and there are two more courses in the works right now that will also be released to the private group for free as well so instead of dumping hundreds of dollars into a course from somebody else why not join the private group and get a ton of other benefits in addition to the courses at a fraction of the cost and if you don't like it you can just cancel instead of losing hundreds of dollars instead all right now let's dive into this hot topic of debate so michael berry you know the guy who was played by batman in the big short which is a great movie you know although i think the book is even better in my opinion of course it you know at least for finance nerds like me i think it's better but the long story short on the big short is he called the housing bubble in 2007 and everybody thought he was crazy until he wasn't crazy and he made a stupid amount of money off of it so now he recently tweeted about how hyperinflation is coming and here's his tweet right here the u.s government is inviting inflation with its mmt tinge policies brisk debt gdp m2 increases while retail sells pmi stage v recovery trillions more stimulus and reopening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket so he says a lot right there and i encourage you to research the individual pieces that you do not fully understand but to save at least 20 minutes of your time the bottom line with that tweet and subsequent tweets referencing germany in the 1920s and 30s is we will see hyperinflation that will ultimately end like germany did with a total collapse of the economy by doing what we are doing right now and he's not the only one saying hyperinflation is coming there are many other people who have been saying with all the money printing going on it's inevitable we will not only have inflation but hyperinflation and it will tank the entire economy stock market and real estate market and basically everything so michael bury was right the last time he made a big prediction like this and this time he's not the only one calling for it i mean we can all see money being printed like never before and i think we can all agree we are seeing some things get a little bit more expensive at the store and companies are citing increased costs to produce in their earnings costs and we all know the economy is not fully reopened yet so i think we all agree there's a lot of pinup demand out there so this seems to be the perfect recipe for hyperinflation coming at us fast and furious so that's it we're all just doomed let's buckle down and buy bitcoin and mass and just wait for the class but wait michael berry also says bitcoin nor gold is safe either here's his tweet about that prepare for inflation reopening and stimulus on the way pre-coveted took three dollars debt to create one dollar gdp and it's worse now in an inflationary crisis governments will move to squash competitors in the currency arena and then he references you know bitcoin and hashtag gold right there so not only will we have hyperinflation but traditional safe havens like gold and new hedges like bitcoin are doomed as well so we're all just screwed there's no need to do anything except for prepare for the apocalypse or buy an island with all this free money and live there until the new world order is established not so fast people there are actually two reasons why i believe we will not see hyperinflation but instead somewhere between two and four percent at the max which is what the fed actually wants unlike germany in the 1920s and 30s the world is a very different place and the us is in a different spot than germany during that time frame so i think it's going to be different this time around and the first reason we won't see hyperinflation we actually already saw this movie in 2008.
for those of you that don't remember the same inflation predictions took place in 2008 when the world printed what was a record level of money at the time i mean everybody was printing money everywhere while it's true that money printing completely hurt other countries here in the us we did not see the inflation everyone else was worried about at all and here's the proof look at the chart right here we actually saw inflation continue its overall decline in the coming years after all that stimulus hit and that has been the trend despite the fed's balance sheet ballooning over that same time frame and that's the perfect lead into the second reason which is asset price inflation with the fed's balance sheet just exploding since 2008 there had to be inflation somewhere well let's look at asset prices since the money printer started in 2008 and here's real estate right here you see the bubble popping in 2008 money starting being printed and real estate has skyrocketed over 56 percent the following 12 years and remember during that time inflation has come down and let's look at the stock market over that same time frame again since the crash in 2008 the s p 500 has skyrocketed over 400 percent which is just mind-boggling that means it's averaged over 15 percent return each year on average while inflation has moved down on average each year despite printing records amount of money so what does this all mean well as you can see right there the inflation actually went to asset prices and who typically owns assets that tends to be people on the wealthier side of the equation and what else supports this evidence well at least here in the us the wealth gap continues to widen further and further and that has really accelerated over the past 10 years all right that is a separate problem in its own video but it supports the data that shows inflation not happening at an alarming rate at all yes it goes up and it goes down but never near hyperinflation levels and instead we see the inflation going into assets now yes again we will see some inflation in prices but the fed wants that and if it gets too hot they can simply raise rates a bit to control the prices which as we saw a few weeks ago just the fear of a rate raise hurt the stock market big but didn't really affect prices anywhere else which again points towards asset inflation not consumer inflation and there are actually a bunch of other factors as well as to why i don't believe we will see hyperinflation such as the dollar being the world's reserve currency and the whole world printing money at the same time thing and the petrol dollar and actually a host of other reasons which a finance nerd like me can geek out on for hours but i won't do that to you guys today so what can you do about all this well since all this is completely out of our control in the end all you need to do is simply stick with the plan we always discuss doing the basics like taking care of your money living below your means don't take on bad debt create infinite money loops and invest that money in great assets like real estate and great stocks which also kind of feed that loop to reinvest again and if you're not sure on how to do any of those things my next two courses coming to the private group cover things like money management and creating infinite money loops to combine with the stock course that's already in there so you can have all the information to maximize your investing so don't forget to sign up for the private group if you're looking for the ultimate set of tools to become a better investor and remember you can try it and cancel it if it's not right for you so thanks for watching and we will see you in the next one you
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