저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏의 투자 원칙 6가지를 2021년 고점 부근 고성장주 장세에 적용하는 영상이다. 결론: 버핏 원칙(감정 배제, 장기 보유, 이해 가능한 사업, 능력 있는 경영진)을 지키면 변동성 큰 고성장주에서도 안정적 수익을 기대할 수 있다는 취지. 시장 심리: 투자자는 상승장에서 과거 수익을 보고 추격 매수하고, 하락 시 관심을 잃는다. 2021년 초 마진 사용과 밸류에이션이 극단적이었고, 이후 마진콜과 고성장주 급락(40~50% 이상)이 나타났다고 진단. 보유 원칙: 고가라는 이유만으로 매도하지 말 것. 시장 타이밍은 장기적으로 불가능하며, 2005년 애플을 팔았다면 큰 기회를 놓쳤을 것이라고 강조. 가치 접근: 벤 그레이엄식 '담배꽁초' 투자(싸고 저품질 기업)보다 적정 가격의 훌륭한 기업을 사는 것이 낫다고 주장. 투자 대상: 자신의 능력 범위(circle of competence) 안에서 10~20년 후 사업 경제성을 이해할 수 있는 기업에만 투자. 유전체(ARK 캐시 우드 류) 등 이해하지 못한 테마는 피하라고 조언. 리그레이 껌 사례 인용. 실수 관리: 가장 큰 실수는 '행동하지 않은 실수(기회 놓침)'이며, 패니메이 투자 기회를 놓쳐 버크셔에 약 50억 달러 손실을 줬다고 언급. 최근 조정: 테슬라 600달러 이하 기회를 많은 사람이 놓쳤다는 사례를 들며 공포와 탐욕 모두 경계하고, 기회가 오면 실행하라고 권고. 경영진 평가: 채용 기준처럼 지능, 주도성(에너지), 청렴성을 중시. 테슬라 대 니콜라 사례로 경영진 품질이 재무제표만큼 중요하다고 강조. 마무리: 영상 말미에는 유료 커뮤니티(Market Insiders) 홍보가 포함됨. 특정 종목에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
warren buffett is one of the best if not the best investor of the past 60 years and while the new school of investors have been beating warren without size returns in 2020 2021 is seeing him roar back to life while the hot investors last year are down significantly but can you have both warm buffet life safety and consistency but also invest in high growth stocks of the future absolutely you can and we're gonna go over six warren buffett investing principles and apply them to the current market environment and those high growth stocks that we all love so we can hopefully get kathy wood type returns with warren buffett-like safety the answer is that investors behave in very human ways which is they get very excited during bull markets and they look in the rearview mirror and they say i made money last year i'm going to make more money this year so this time i'll borrow you know or or the neighbor says you know i wasn't in last year when that neighbor was dumber than i made a lot of money so i'm going to go in this year so always look in the rearview mirror and when they look in the rearview mirror and they see a lot of money having been made in the last few years they plow in and they just push and push and push on prices and when they look in the rearview mirror and they see no money having been made they just say this is a lousy place to be so they don't care what's going on in the underlying business and it's it's astounding but that's that makes for a huge opportunity just huge opportunity wow here we are so many years after he said that and this rings more true today than ever regardless of what kind of stocks you buy how many of you guys out there made 50 100 200 or more last year and expected to make right around that or more this year i think we can all agree that what he just said happened margin was at all-time highs december through february valuations was so far out of whack it wasn't even funny and people were still plowing money into all those stocks now here we are just a couple of months later and many people both large and small receive margin calls interest in stocks overall is way down retail investor volume is way down and prices in some of our favorite stocks have fallen by 40 50 or even more but as warren stated that is where the huge opportunity was and still is in some cases you have to avoid emotions at all cost and this is even more critical with high growth stocks in terms of our wholly owned businesses we're not going to sell no matter how much anybody offers this for i mean if somebody offers us three times what something is worth that sees candy the buffalo news borsheims whatever it may be we're not going to sell it our inclination is not to sell things unless we get really discouraged perhaps with the management or we think the economic characteristics of the business change in a big way i mean and that happens so but we're not going to sell simply because it looks too high this is another gym that applies even more so to today's market than it did back then and especially in high growth stocks i could not tell you guys how many times i get asked should i sell a stock and unless you're a day trader or swing trader why are you selling and engaging in market timing which is impossible to do over the long run if i would have sold apple in 2005 after nearly tripling my money i would have missed out on a literal fortune since then so don't make the mistake of selling just because a stock is way up or way down unless something fundamentally has changed with the business i've been taught by ben graham to buy things on a quantitative basis look around for things that are cheap and that i was taught that we'll say in 1949 or they made a big impression on me so i went around looking for what i call use cigar butts of stocks and the cigar butt approach to buying stocks is that you walk down the street and you're looking around for butts and you find this obviously this terrible looking soggy ugly looking cigar one puff left in it but you pick it up and you get your one puff disgusting you throw it away but it's free i mean it's cheap and then you look around for another soggy you know one puff cigarette well that's what i did for years it's a mistake uh although you make money doing it but you can't make it with big money it's so much easier just to buy wonderful businesses so now i would rather buy a wonderful business at a fair price than a fair business at a wonderful price i just love the cigar but analogy he uses there it is so much better to pick great companies at a fair price than to pick up a hot spak stock that is 70 down and hoping to make twenty percent off of it and yes as spacmania continues there are going to be some cigar putts littered around everywhere that will be so cheap that you may try to talk yourself into thinking it's worth your time trying to see if those last few puffs are going to be incredible i'm telling you don't even waste your time on those just stick with the great ones and pay a fair price for them i have an old-fashioned belief that i can only should expect to make money and things that i understand and when i say understand i don't mean to understand you know what the product does or anything like that i mean understand what the economics of the business are likely to look at look like 10 years from now or 20 years from now i know in general what the economics will say wrigley chewing gum will look like 10 years from now the internet isn't going to change the way people chew gum it isn't going to change which gum they chew you know if you own the chewing gum market in a big way and you've got double mint and spearmint and juicy fruit those brands will be there 10 years from now so i can't pinpoint exactly what the numbers are going to look like on wrigley but i'm not going to be way off if i try to look forward on something like that that evaluating that company is within what i call my circle of competence i understand what they do i understand the economics of it i understand the competitive aspects of the business kathy woods says genomics is the future well guess what i don't understand that at all or the economics around it so i'm not invested in it the reality is over the long run there are many sectors that are going to give incredible returns not just genomics just because kathy wood or a youtuber or someone else thinks the stock is great does not make it the best choice for you and here's an example i'd say warren did pretty good for himself despite not really investing in tech until apple in 2015 or so i mean i was into apple like 15 years before warren was the bottom line do not invest in the next hot stock or sector if you do not understand the economics and the market around it the biggest mistakes we've made by far i've made not we've made biggest mistakes i've made by far are mistakes of omission and not commission i mean it's the things i knew enough to do they were within my circle of competence and i was sucking my thumb and that is really those are the ones that hurt they don't show up anyplace i probably cost berkshire at least five billion dollars for example by sucking my thumb 20 years ago or close to it when fannie mae was was having some troubles and we could have bought the whole company for practically nothing and i don't worry about that if it's microsoft because i don't know it because microsoft isn't in my circle of compliments and so i i i i don't have any reason to think i'm entitled to make money out of microsoft or out of cocoa beans or whatever but i didn't know enough to understand fannie mae and i blew it and that never shows up under conventional accounting but the call i know the cost of it i know i know you know i passed it up and those are the big big mistakes and uh i've had plenty of them and unless i tell you about them in the annual report and i resist the temptation sometimes uh unless i tell you about him in the annual report you're not going to know it because it doesn't show up under conventional accounting but old mission is way bigger than commission there's big opportunities in life have to be seized uh we don't do very many things but when we get the chance to do something that's right and big we've got to do it let's look at this last correction in the high growth stocks it's so hard to pull the trigger especially when stocks are going down every single day sometimes it's because you get too greedy and you want it to go lower and sometimes you're just scared because it's been down for weeks with no end in sight and it just keeps going down before the correction all i heard was things like i would trade my grandma if tesla ever gets under 600 again because it's such a great opportunity well it got down well under 600 and now i'm seeing those same people saying i completely missed it but don't feel bad about it it happened to the greatest ever so just learn the lesson and take the action next time a great opportunity comes we look for three things when we hire people we look for intelligence we look for for initiative or energy and we look for integrity and if they don't have the latter the first two will kill you because if you're going to get somebody without integrity you want them lazy and dumb i mean yeah you don't want them you don't want to smart and energetic so as we have seen with the tesla versus nikola competition between elon and trevor having next level intelligence and almost workaholic type energy and integrity separates great companies changing the world from companies that are basically shams intended to cash out the executives and there are examples of this all over the stock market management is just as key of a component of evaluating a stock as the balance sheet is you do not want to overlook the management team so as you can see warren buffett's principles absolutely apply today just as much and maybe even more than they ever have before so hopefully you got some value out of this video and if you did please hit that like button and subscribe if you haven't already and if you want to take your investing to the next level consider joining the market insiders private group and you receive two free courses soon to be three my watch list with price targets buy and sell alerts live q and a's private discord with a ton of awesome people that are talking all things stocks and direct access to me to ask me anything you want still some spots on sale for you to lock in at that price for life and if you don't like it you can basically take 600 worth of courses and then cancel and you got basically a 96 discount on the courses
Comments 0