저자: StockedUp채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
알리바바(BABA)가 중국 상장폐지 우려로 급락했지만 실적은 매우 好조이며 저평가라는 주장. 핵심 주장: 알리바바는 매출·자산·현금흐름이 폭발적으로 성장 중이고 수익성도 좋으며 현금 약 500억 달러를 보유. 근거 수치: 중국 활성 고객 9억5300만 명(인구의 약 68%), 찰리 멍거가 포트폴리오의 27%를 매입 중. 최근 주가 115~134달러 구간, S&P500과 상관계수 -0.89로 역의 관계. 상장폐지 시나리오: 최악의 경우에도 홍콩 상장이나 자사주 매입·비상장화로 주주가 지분을 보유하게 되며, 중국 정부가 자국 기업의 미국 상장 폐지를 택할 논리가 약하다고 봄. 종목 방향: 알리바바 상승 기대(저가 매수 관점), S&P500 등 미국 대형 기술주는 단기 차익실현 압력 언급. 리스크: 애플 같은 안전자산은 아니며 변동성이 크고 규제 리스크가 존재한다고 인정. 진행자는 소규모 포지션 진입을 고려한다고 말함. 출연자 전망: 멍거의 매수는 충분한 리서치에 기반한 것으로 평가하며 투자자 자금 운용임을 언급.
다듬은 글
what's up everyone in this video we're going to be talking about the 78 million dollar stock dip buy so i did a lot of research for this video we have a great video today and i know a lot of you will really like it so stick around to the end we're going to cover a lot of great information and there is a really big opportunity that we're gonna be talking about today so stick with me to the end and let's get right into it so before i release the ticker symbol for the company i just want to showcase what's been happening over the past year so if we look right where my cursor is right on this main screen we can see the six month chart has been brutal even the five year chart has been okay to to say the least right like um the the past year has been brutal right but besides that the stock has been exploding but what's weird is that if we look and see the results that this company is getting like the revenue and cost of revenue up to the top right over here the company is growing at a crazy pace right like the revenue is just exploding exponentially the total assets are exploding the gross profits exploding uh the cash flows are exploding like it's the company is doing very well right it's growing at a crazy pace um it's a profitable company and it's doing very well but what's weird is that the stock doesn't reflect that so you have to ask yourself if this company is doing so well why is the stock getting destroyed and the answer to that question is because of de-listing fears so the stock we're talking about today is alibaba and i know a lot of you guys are going to freak out when you hear that company name but there's a lot of misinformation with this um whole situation going on right now so i know a lot of uh bad news has came out over the past year about uh of china potentially delisting alibaba and other other chinese companies right and it has caused a lot of fear and panic into alibaba even though the company is doing extremely extremely well like if we look at this chart to the left this is alibaba if we look at the chart to the right that's the s p 500 in the middle the rat is the s p 500 in the blue is alibaba so we can see the market has been exploding but alibaba has been moving in an inverse way so it's kind of like it's basically negatively correlated to the market right now and there is a big opportunity with it so basically what's happening is alibaba is just getting destroyed right now because of fears of the listing and there's just bad news with it you know when it rains it pours you know the company's doing great but there's just a lot of bad news um short sellers are coming in and people are panic selling mainly because of misinformation in my opinion but either way it's at a great price right it's doing very well in charlie munger who is warren buffett's right hand man is buying the dip big time so he's he's buying he's really buying the dip right now and uh charlie monger is even though he's older he has a lot of experience and uh he has a pretty good track track record of getting some pretty awesome returns so charlie munger like i said he is warren buffett's right-hand man he is the chairman of the daily journal corporation and alibaba is now worth or it's a he has a 27 weighting in his daily journal portfolio 27 27 that is huge right so i think that should tell you something by itself but either way you're probably wondering why is charlie munger buying the dip on alibaba like it must be at a great price right now and basically alibaba is a very strong company right and it's very important to china but it also gives some diversity um especially if you're holding a lot of u.s companies so there are 1.4 billion people in china out of that 1.4 billion people 953 million uh people in china are active annual customers to alibaba that's 68 of the population of china is a customer of alibaba 68 of the population that's huge and they're making a lot of money but the stock is tanking another good thing is that it's growing at a crazy pace like if we go back to the spreadsheet over here let me pull it up we can see that their revenues are exploding their assets are exploding they're a profitable company their cash flows are exploding like even if we scroll down to the quarterly data like the company is doing very very well and in turn their stock is getting destroyed because of the listing fears but let's say in the worst case scenario alibaba gets de-listed you're still going to own cheers for alibaba it'll just be on the hong kong exchange or the company will just buy the shares back from you and the company will go private but either way the company's growing at a crazy pre crazy pace it's at an amazing price it's growing and even in the worst case scenario that it gets delisted you'll still own the shares in you know like you still own the shares like people are kind of freaking out for no reason in my opinion um with that being said i don't even think alibaba or the chinese government is going to make alibaba do lips the chinese government straight out said that they're not looking to force u.s listed companies 2d lists and i know china can be corrupt and they can easily lie but let's think about that do you really think that the chinese government would de-list their their own companies on the us exchanges like it just doesn't make sense and if they did that they would be sending a huge message to the rest of the world don't invest in the chinese companies and that is one of the last things the chinese government wants so it's like everyone's freaking out about de-listing fears and u.s china regulation fears but like try like i won like even if even if the bad does happen and baba does the list they're still going to own the company and then two like even if it does the like it's probably not even going to be list in the first place in my opinion it's just it's not a logical decision for the chinese government to make it just it's no it's just it's not it's not a smart thing to do they'd be essentially shooting themselves in the foot and the stock is at a very low price right now so with that being said there's a lot of fear in the market especially when it comes to alibaba but a lot of times the greatest opportunity is when the there's the most fear in the market like even if we look back at the s p 500 when there was the most fear over the past i don't know maybe three years or so was in i guess you could say march of 2020 when the pandemic was just starting right guess who made the highest percentage returns over the past three years it's the people who bought the dip when everyone else was freaking out so it's like when everything's all fine and dandy and there's not any worries in the market yeah you can invest during those times but you're going to be paying a pretty nice premium for that but the people who buy the dip or at least buy when everyone else is fearful normally does pretty well as long as they're buying solid companies and in my opinion alibaba is with that being said looking back at alibaba you know they are like i said i've said this a couple of times ready but they're growing at a crazy pace and they have 50 billion dollars in cash they're an online i guess you could say e-commerce technology company in china and the main thing is the price that they're at and another good thing is that charlie munger who's a very well-respected investor is buying the dick you know like he would not be buying the dip if he did not fully do his research and another thing is he has 27 percent of his portfolio in alibaba like that's that's pretty big i know a lot of people you know will say well charlie munger you know he's he's getting old and this just might be his his uh final yolo trade but that's that's not who charlie munger is he definitely did his research and another thing is like it's investors money it's not like he's just taking 27 or 72 million dollars of his own money and just dumping it into the stock like he has investors behind that too and it's just it's just that argument is flawed in my opinion but with that being said everything going on right now is kind of um kind of ridiculous in my opinion the stock is just getting beaten down because of fears of the listing but the company's growing and i don't even think it's going to be list so with that being said is alibaba a potential play like apple or microsoft absolutely not you know it definitely has its own unique risks but then again the company is making a lot of money they're profitable they have 50 billion dollars in cash they're growing at a crazy pace and the main thing is that they're at a good price you know they're at a really good price we have some smart money flowing in we have charlie munger flowing in of course some institutions are selling off too so we'll definitely keep that in mind and i would say more importantly than anything else is the diversity aspect of what alibaba or other other stocks and due to your portfolio so for example like if we look at the s p 500 over the past couple of years it has basically done nothing but go straight up and that's awesome you know and companies like apple nvidia microsoft amazon they've all been exploding and that's awesome i'd love to see it but we're definitely seeing some profit taking with some of these companies in the market right now like apple microsoft amd nvidia tesla they're definitely taking hits now they're gonna do fine for the long term but for the short term it definitely hurts and at the same time we're seeing a lot of money flow into growth companies value stocks and even some of these china stocks right now and it's mainly due to the prices that they're at and another thing is if we go back to the sheet really quickly let me just pull it up so if we go back to the sheet with the comparison we can see over the past year alibaba and the spy has had basically just a negative correlation a correlation of minus 0.89 so when the market goes up most of the time alibaba goes down and when the market goes down alibaba goes up so if we look back at the s p 500 this week over the past i guess you could say four days it went from like highs of 479.98 all the way down to like 466 dollars so you know it definitely took a hit at the same time we had alibaba go from lows of 115 all at the highs of like just under 134 so like they kind of they kind of move like in an opposite way which is not a bad thing you know like in my opinion i feel like it's at a great price and i feel like people are really overestimating the or they're just like giving too much power to the news you know like after you're gonna see articles saying oh the company's gonna de-list and whatever but it's like even if at the list you're still known the company anyways and it's at a great price and they're making a lot of money so it's like i think it's worth um a play i'm gonna take a small position on it is this like an amazing safe company like apple no it's not it's a riskier play uh it's it's definitely volatile but i just feel like people are really really um there's a lot of conflicting information out there right now and i feel like people are overlooking it so let me know what you think about alibaba let me know if you think it's at a great price and you might buy the dip or let me know if you think it's gonna keep on falling or it's just not worth touching for you because you know some companies just aren't worth investing in and you know maybe if you don't wanna have exposure to other countries that's fine you know but some people might like this and i wanted to point it out so thank you guys so much for watching i hope you learned something and i really i really appreciate all of you watching so if you like the video please leave me a comment down below if you didn't like it please also leave me a comment down below i greatly appreciate it but thank you guys so much for watching and have an amazing weekend
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