저자: StockedUp채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 6월 30일 기준 보유 종목 대부분을 매도하고 GEO(GEO Group, 사설교도소 운영사)만 남긴 것으로 보도됐다는 점을 짚으며, 보유 규모는 약 330만 달러로 펀드 전체(약 3억 달러) 대비 작다는 점을 강조함. 매매 시점: 보도는 최근이지만 실제 거래는 6월 30일이었고, 기관 보유 공시는 수 주 뒤에 공개되므로 현재 시세와 시차가 있다는 점을 강조함. GEO 재무 및 밸류에이션: 주가는 약 7.75달러, 시가총액 약 10억 달러, 순이익률은 최근 분기 9.1%·직전 7%, 4분기 평균 3.5%. 부채 약 30억 달러, 현금 5.87억 달러. 매출은 2019년 24.7억 달러 정점 이후 2021년 22.5억 달러로 감소. 주가매출비율(P/S)은 약 0.4로 과거 평균(1~1.25)보다 낮음. 애널리스트 전망상 2022년 매출 약 4%, 2023년 약 4.3% 성장. 진행자 판단: GEO는 나쁜 투자도 최고의 투자도 아니며, 과매도 상태이고 S&P500과 상관성이 낮지만 정책·정치 리스크가 큰 니치 종목이라고 평가함. 버리의 과거 트위터(삭제된 글) 속 거품·폭락 경고에는 동의하지 않으며, 모든 조정이 1929·2008급은 아니라는 견해를 밝힘. 결론: 버리의 GEO 단일 보유를 '전면 베팅'으로 해석하는 것은 오해이며, 개별 종목 판단은 정책 리스크와 실적 추세를 함께 봐야 한다는 취지.
다듬은 글
what's up everyone in this video we're gonna be talking about how Michael burry sold all of his stocks except for one we're gonna be looking at the stock he's still holding more in depth but we're also going to talk about what really no one else is talking about with this situation overall so if you don't know already Michael burry is the guy who is known for timing the market crash in 2008 and 2009 uh basically he's kind of like the star of the movie The Big Short that's an awesome movie by the way it's definitely worth watching but long story short uh he's known for timing the market crash correctly in 2008 and 2009 and making a ton of money in the process so when you hear headlines like we're seeing now on how he is how he sold all of his stock except for one company it definitely raises some eyebrows so looking at basically what the what happened so basically he manages cyan acid Scion Asset Management um he owned a bunch of stocks like uh Google meta bmy um he owned a couple even like what like 12 stocks or so and he sold all of them but he's only holding one of them and then his Geo which is a private prison stock but here is where it gets interesting so even though he sold all of his stocks he had around 300 million dollars of total assets under management for his fund but with Geo which is the only stock he's holding which is currently trading for around 7.75 he is only holding 3.3 million dollars worth of that stock so I've been hearing a bunch of people talk about Geo stock lately and talk about how you know Michael burry sold everything in is all in on Geo which is like yeah like he's only holding geost but it's only 3.3 million dollars on a fund that's worth around 300 million dollars so it's like there's there's some confusion right there so keep that in mind um another important thing to keep in mind is while we're just learning about Michael burry's trades as of yesterday he actually made the trades on June 30th basically what happens is these giant whales when they make trades we don't get to know about it right away it takes a couple weeks minimum for the public to know about it so that's why you hear everyone talking about it right now but when you look at some of his Holdings like meta or Google and any other of his Holdings that he sold out of he sold out on June 30th you know what I mean so it's like the stock market has done pretty well since June 30th so um you know he's also in Geo since June 30th too so it's just something to keep in mind because it's not like he necessarily bought into these trades yesterday and you know it's just something to keep in mind um another important thing to keep in mind is that the stock that he did buy is a private prison stock so you can take that however you want um they they do a lot with private prisons and just rehab facilities and like even some like processing centers for like immigration and stuff like that um they have multiple locations around the world uh basically looking at Geo stock right now it's at seven dollars in 72 cents um it's all-time high is right around 34 or so and it's at a decently low level as most stocks are right now looking at it even more in depth we can see the market valuation or market cap for geo is just under 1 billion dollars now their net margins are pretty small you can say um in this past quarter it was around 9.1 percent the quarter before that was around seven percent then when you take the average over like the past four quarters then their net margins are only 3.5 percent um so you know it's not the bus obviously um they also have a decent amount of debt around 3 billion dollars but it's it's not as bad as it sounds for um this industry you know it takes a ton of money to build the facilities they're building and you know generally with real estate businesses or anything of that sense um you do see higher debt levels sometimes um you know looking at some of their other Revenue number or some of their other data points the revenue has been pretty flat over like the past couple years to be honest if you look at almost any other company out there and I know I'm not I know I'm cherry picking big time right now but if you look at Apple over like let's say the past 10 years their revenue exploded right they went from was it a hundred and then was that 15.6 no 156 billion dollars it went from 156 billion dollars in annual revenue in 2012 to 365 billion dollars in annual revenue for 2021.
now if you look at any other company for the most part you know know you you see decent Revenue growth Geo on the other hand has been it's been growing which is good but not at an awesome Pace in 2012 they had an annual revenue of one point uh four eight billion dollars in 2021 they had an annual revenue of 2.25 billion dollars which is good but their revenue actually peaked out in 2019 and has been declining ever since in 2019 their annual revenue was 2.47 billion dollars 2020 that dropped to 2.35 billion and then 2021 2.25 billion so it's like it has been declining which is um pretty interesting especially especially considering over the past couple years almost every single stock or in company has had increasing Revenue looking at Geo a little bit more in depth we can see their cash levels at 587 million dollars total assets around 4.56 billion total liabilities right around 3.5 billion in total debt around just under 3 billion dollars so I'll keep that in mind looking at Geo in terms of the charts um right now they're at 7.75 cents or so like I said the all-time high right around 34 but what is interesting and what I'm looking at is this blue line all the way at the bottom this is the price of sales ratio basically what it shows you is how much you have to pay for one dollar in Revenue so we could see for the most part you can say Geo averages maybe 1 to 1.25 in uh price to sales over its existence um and right now the price of sales is around 0.4 so basically what you need know is that let's say historically on average the price of sales ratio for geo was what uh was one right that means for every one dollar in Revenue that Geo brings in you have to pay one dollar in terms of valuation for that now let's say it's 0.5 that means for every one dollar in valuation you pay for geo you get two dollars in Revenue which is awesome so it's nice to see their price of sales ratio low on an absolute basis but also on a relative basis uh and then also looking at estimates for geo um they are expected to grow Revenue by around four percent this year and then next year around 4.3 percent so you know is it a bad Play No is it the best play ever no um what I just really want to emphasize is that you know Michael burry even though this is only Stocky's holding it's only 3.3 million dollars and honestly that's nothing to a fund that has 300 million dollars to play with so keep that in mind um what I do like about Geo is that it's pretty oversold um it is not too correlated with the S P 500 it kind of does whatever it wants which is a good thing especially in this market but this is like a very Niche stock a lot of these private prison stocks and companies really depend on like you know what the government decides to do in terms of like policy and then also just um you know just it's heavily it's a it's a very political um industry you can say um for private prison so um overall I hope this video just cleared up some of the things that Michael burry selling his positions and stuff like that so while Michael burry is very widely known for his amazing big short trade there are some things I disagree with related to Michael burry looking at some of his deleted tweets we can see the s p he he said the S P 500 completed a 22 two-month rally and the NASDAQ a 43 rally the S P 500 would fall another 42 percent and the NASDAQ Another 48 percent by the bottom post Worldcom in late 2002.
he said you can't you can't shake that silly pre and run pre-911 pre-worldcom feeling and we can see another deleted tweet where he says the silliness is back after 1929 after 1968 after 2000 after 2008 the strain of silliness that transformed and bowls into bubbles completely and utterly disappeared but that familiar coveted era silliness is not dead yet like 2001 before Enron before 9 11 before WorldCom yes you know that that's a valid point but I feel like the big thing that he's missing in this scenario is that not every Market correction is like to 1929 or 1968 or 2000 or 2008 there have been many many many Market Corrections that are nowhere near the magnitude of 1929 or 2008.
um you could say the same thing about recessions too you know when when you mention the word recession everyone instantly thinks what happened in 2008 obviously it was a disaster um but there have been many recessions where it was not even close to as bad as 2008 so it's important to keep in mind um when reading any market crash article or anything about a dip or recession especially when they're when the word recession gets thrown into play not every recession is like 1929 or 2008.
it's very possible to see every session that you don't even notice a lot of people don't even notice this but we did have a recession in early 2020 but that was unique and it was different you know but when you hear the word recession everyone thinks 2008. so I hope this video guys I hope this video helped you guys um obviously it's not every day where you see someone as famous as Michael burry selling everything just like that and then holding one stock it's definitely a rare event so hopefully this video cleared some things up for you let me know your thoughts on this situation in geostock in the comments down below if you are new here make sure to subscribe I post brand new videos every single day and let's have a great trading week
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