저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
마크 페이버는 2022년 초 글로벌 주식 시장에 투기적 과열이 있다고 보며, 특히 자산 가격 상승은 통화 증발의 결과라고 진단했다. 주식 시장에 대해서는 전체적으로 과열이지만 개별적으로는 저평가 종목이 많다고 봤다. 홍콩 종목 약 70%가 순자산가치 대비 큰 할인 상태이며, 차이나모바일은 배당수익률 약 6%라고 언급했다. 인도 중앙은행 총재(RBI)가 긴축 통화정책을 유지하는 점을 높이 평가하며, 최근 두 명의 총재가 정상적이었다고 칭찬했다. 미국과 유럽의 인플레이션은 공식 통계보다 높아 실제로 8~12% 수준이라고 주장했다. 이에 따라 미국 금리는 최소 6% 이상이어야 실질금리가 플러스가 된다고 봤다. 다만 연준의 긴축 실현 가능성에는 회의적이었다. 부동산은 대도시 중심지보다 지방에 가치가 있다고 봤고, 아시아(인도네시아·말레이시아·홍콩), 중남미(브라질·아르헨티나)와 저평가된 통신주에 기회가 있다고 언급했다. 구글·애플은 고평가라고 봤다. 금·은·백금은 장기 강세 전망을 유지했으며, 본인은 자산의 약 25%를 귀금속으로 보유하고 판매할 의사가 없다고 밝혔다. 비트코인은 정부 규제 가능성과 다른 암호화폐 증가를 이유로 리스크를 지적했다.
다듬은 글
hello and uh welcome to a brand new episode of market month in powered by zbiz.com well my name is shitaj and today we have a very special guest with us mark faber who was editor and publisher of the gloom boom and doom report well famous for its country and approach to investing mark faber does not run with the bulls or bait the bears but steers his own course through the mail storm of international finance markets well the man who predicted many financial crisis has something interesting for india and overall equities as well well without further ado let me welcome the legend welcome to the show mr family well thank you very much for having me and uh first of all i wish all your viewers and yourself of course a prosperous new year with a lot of satisfaction in whatever you do and with hopefully more of an absence of vicious governments that want to enslave people with all kinds of measures brought about by covet virus thank you so much for your kind words mr faber well let me start with the you know how equities are looking you know especially for india you know we saw over 22 percent kind of gain in fact for u.s markets as well we saw 26 kind of gains for the year 2021.
so do you think there is a bubble building in equities not just in india but across the globe i think they are very speculative excesses in just about any asset market okay whether you look at the art market at collectibles you see because of the money printing everything has gone up with a few exceptions i mean i look at commodities commodities inflation adjusted are still very low or if i look at real estate there is very pricey real estate in mumbai and in delhi and in munich and in zurich and in london and paris and new york and the west hong kong singapore but then there is very inexpensive real estate in the countryside somewhere right and nowadays you and i we can live in the countryside i happen to live in the second largest city of thailand which is chiang mai but it's still a very small spot in the international universe and from chiang mai i have my bloomberg with me i get all the news at the same time you get it and someone in new york so i think that the concept of investing in real estate will be less you know in which city or which country but within a country in which places is their value and where there isn't any value i think city centers will have less value in the future than in the past because the whole financial market is nowadays an international market you can be newport beach or in zurich or in san marits or in mumbai and you can trade the assets around the clock worldwide so we have excesses but in these excesses as i said if i look at the markets their markets like the us we talk about say the us or even india some stocks in india are expensive and they have gone up a lot but among the maybe 10 000 or 15 or 20 000 shares that are listed in india i'm sure i could find you 10 of companies that are very inexpensive because they've been neglected right nobody has analyzed them nobody has really gone and looked at what is the value of the company and their assets and so forth and lots of companies in the world like in hong kong i can give you say 70 percent of stocks in hong kong sell probably at the 50 percent discount to net asset value and these companies i give you an example china mobile is essentially the largest mobile phone provider in china it's selling at the yield of six percent dividend yield so i don't really care whether the stock goes up a bit or down a bit but i get the six percent a year which is a very high return in a world that is manipulated by brain damaged central bankers in europe and in the us fortunately not in india in india the bank of india there's a bank i think is very reasonable and surprisingly has been very well run i have to make a compliment to india that the last two central bankers have been really normal people and mad like lagarde in europe inflation is like eight percent per annum and interest rates are at zero no absolutely so we'll take that as a compliment uh to our bi governor and definitely yes i hope he will listen to this program and keep monetary policies relatively tight absolutely uh but i'm sure uh the u.s fed also signaled some rate hikes or monetary tightening in the year 2022 so how are you looking at that you are an optimist you are an optimist i want to tell you something the last time inflation was as high as it is now in the us and in europe interest rates in the us were over 12 percent per annum and say you believe the statistics by the government so inflation is running at say five percent per annum that is incorrect because the cpi measurement has been changed over the years repeatedly to understate the cost of living increases it's running at the present time some people say at 12 somewhat 15 i say between 8 and twelve percent okay because it depends do you have children you don't have children do they go to school they don't go to school do you have to go and into hospital and there was many things your basket of purchases is different than mine klein consists mostly of cigarettes and beer and yours is maybe whiskey and whatever so anyway everybody every household has a different profile in terms of their cost of living increase but in the u.s and in europe it's between eight and twelve percent per annum and the interest rates are next to zero and in my view uh the last time they tightened it was in 2018 2019 already at two and a half percent they got into trouble in the repo market so they started to slash interest rates again in september 2019 long before covet covey didn't produce the monetary easing it was a tightening in the money market too anyway in my view what interest rate should be today minimum 6 percent in the u.s okay minimum six percent yeah that they would be uh positive in real terms right as you know we can measure the rate of inflation we measure interest rates uh differences between real or real interest rates that may be negative as they are now and really interest rates as they were positive between 1980 and essentially year 2003 this was a period of positive uh the real interest rates because the interest rates were above the rate of inflation this has changed now and it's so negative the real rates i don't see how in europe and in the us they could increase it sufficiently well yes uh i think the time will only shell but at this point in time it looks like fed uh is slightly more hawkish at this point in time but so yes we'll keep our fingers crossed how that goes so uh energy prices are an uptrend what is your view on the precious metal space as well well the precious metals as you know have been in a long-term bull market and have reflected the depreciation of the value of paper monies around the world so okay in 1970 uh you could buy an ounce of gold for 35 dollars an ounce and now it's around 1800 so it offsets kind of the depreciation in the value of paper money so i hold of course a lot of precious metals i have maybe close to 25 percent of my assets are in precious metals right of course because i'm in this business i watch the price every day but i will never sell my precious metals unless and this is an issue that investors have to realize governments around the world could come one day and say you must sell your precious metals it's possible the way they can come one day and say well uh cryptocurrencies are not uh accepted as currencies they can do that right they cannot eliminate bitcoins but they can make it a crime and the felony and the fraud to deal in bitcoins yeah you understand this it's not likely they will do it but it's a possibility it's a possibility and the second problem the cryptos have compared to gold silver and platinum is the quantity of bitcoins is fairly determined however if tomorrow someone comes with a quantum computer he could increase the quantity meaningfully number two the quantity of bitcoins is say more or less fixed no quantum computer can change it which is a false assumption but it's something somebody could argue at least in the next six months to this i can respond yes this is true the quantity of bitcoins is fixed but the quantity of new cryptocurrencies that are being created all the time is not fixed it's not so we started four or five years ago with just one bitcoins then became israel and the voice and now we have thousands of different cryptocurrencies too right so i like gold i think it's uh relatively depressed giving an all the quantity of money that has been created okay i think it should go higher as well as silver and platinum but i don't know about the price on a day-to-day basis because there's a lot of speculation not so much in the gold market i guess that's also in india that the young people buy the more speculative sector of the market to not hold value stock sensible so they've been selling that and so there is been pressure on all asset markets okay now i i completely agree on that and uh i wanted to check with you uh which are the other markets that uh you like at this moment uh uh i mean i want to tell you uh what i think is inexpensive i think some of the asian markets like indonesia malaysia and especially hong kong i think hong kong is inexpensive and i would say you should look i mean outside india i'm sure they are in india still great opportunities i would say in real estate in particular and in art and antiques but i would also look at latin american markets okay the very depressed brazil argentina and then we have sectors if we look at the world you have the googles that are expensive apple is expensive and so forth but you look at telecom stocks telecom companies okay whether in europe or in asia or in latin america they have been in a bear market for the last five six years right right when actually global markets went up they've been in the downtrend so there i see some opportunity great i think uh mr how it has been an insightful uh conversation with you and uh with that note i think uh thank you for your insight on markets and global as well as commodities uh well that's all for now folks but do say log on to zbiz.com for more news on business and economy thank you so much for your time sir well i thank you very much for your the interview and it's always nice to talk to you and thank you so much i wish as i said to your readers your viewers all the best thank you great
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