저자: Kevin · 외국인
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개인투자자(리테일)는 주식 매수를 줄였지만 하락장에서 저가매수(dip buying)를 하고 있으며, 이는 긍정적 신호로 평가됨. 기관 비관(풋옵션 지출 감소)이 줄면서 기관이 강세로 전환하는 흐름이 시장 상승의 동인이라는 주장. 빅테크(FANG+M)와 넷플릭스는 장기 신뢰 대상으로 제시, 채권 ETF 매수는 8월 고점 후 이탈. 중국 ADR과 중국 소비는 회피, TSMC 선호.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here coming to you with a shirt straight out from barrows and a sponsor from MooMoo but in this video we've got to look a little bit closer at what's going on with retail investors first I want to start with retail capitulation there are many different measures of retail capitulation we've been tracking a couple of these some reports by for example JPMorgan suggests that retail has started capitulating however reports by Vanda track suggest the opposite that retail is buying less but not quite capitulating however there is a there's a clear Trend that I think is worth paying attention to and one is that retail yes is buying less they are buying fewer stocks so you are seeing this inflection point to the downside as potentially we hit closer to the bottom of the market but retail is doing something very interesting and it has to do with buying the dip in very certain stocks and I'm going to talk about exactly those in this video we'll also talk about what retail Tales response has been relative to institutions and also bonds so we'll talk about all of that in this video first though it's worth noting the amount of pain that retail is enduring here is a chart of the pain retail has endured in 2018 retail briefly endured a Fed tightening period here with a decline in stocks of up to about 25 percent for a very very short period of time in December of 2018.
this was the FED tightening period during the time which we were talking about well Donald Trump at least was talking about in mainstream media was talking about this idea that oh Jerome Powell should be fired for hiking interest rates and it really wasn't until Jerome Powell you turned around December 18th to the 22nd of 2018 that socks started recovering and so what we notice is retail actually then had to deal with a larger decline about a 28 decline here during the covid-19 crash and folks look at the pain we're dealing with relative to these prior pain periods look at what we're dealing with now not only are we dealing with pain that is in excess of a portfolio drawdown of between 30 to 35 percent so let me make that clear if your portfolio is down 30 to 35 percent you're just normal you're a normal investor in this environment look there are there are some of us who have outperformed there are some of us who have underperformed but the average it's just bad okay it's not great nobody's bragging about their stock portfolio really in 2022 oh with the exception of the anomalies which generally the anomalies to make yourself feel better suck all of the other years they suck nine out of ten years and they do great one out of ten years okay because they're always making these crazy crazy YOLO bets but anyway the amount of pain we're suffering is so much larger than we actually had in the last two periods of pain the 2018 tightening cycle and the covet pandemic where we really had that v-shaped recovery right so it's quite interesting to pay attention to but not only that let's take a look at inflows now what's really fascinating about this particular chart is it shows the resilience of retail it shows us that the S P 500 hit relative high levels over here at the end of July before the Jackson Hole Symposium or Jerome Powell really talked about this continuation of tightening and really drove the market right back down because that seems to be their goal we would reduce our wealth right but what's phenomenal is when we get over here yeah you see these green bars here these that I'm sort of highlighting right now those are retail inflows into the market and you'll notice at least according to Vander track they have not been negative they've been close they were very very close here they were very very close here but according to Vander truck we've actually not turned negative now others have reported that we have turned negative but what's remarkable is when you see these larger drawdowns see this drawdown right here look at that sharp drawdown look at those inflows look at that draw down right here on the left look at those inflows look at this drawdown right here look at those inflows my point is when we see this Market turned down retail is doing what they should be doing and that in my opinion is actually something to be proud of it's buying the dip now buying the dip has been a painful strategy if you started back in January it would have been better for you to just sit on the sideline for as long as possible whether you sat on the sideline for two months or three months or four months or five minutes or six months the more you sat on the sidelines the better but generally we look back at buying the dip and we're like damn you probably own a lot more shares today than you owned last year and how do you think that's going to pay out in the next five years personally I I'm very very optimistic about that but I will say it's not just retail becoming optimistic take a look at this this is a chart right here that shows you the change in sentiment okay I'm gonna ignore the discussion about how this is a puts a premium chart we're going to talk about this as a change of Direction in institutional versus retail sentiment wise okay retail is this green stuff over here this is basically how much money we're spending on puts okay it's been kind of stable hey we were near zero here but we've kind of been stable bobbing around this sort of line over here right the point here though is to notice this inflection here institutional investors are reducing the amount of money they're spending on shorting to the downside in other words institutional is becoming more bullish that doesn't mean they're right look they became more bullish in March when the Federal Reserve had the fomc meeting uh that really led to a rally they became more bullish in June before the Jackson Hole Symposium right and during the times that institutions become more bullish like here and here we could see that the S P 500 goes up here and here so we actually get increases when institutions become more bullish that's roughly what we're seeing here and here we're seeing that same sort of bullishness come back it's not so much retail pessimism that actually drives the market lower it's institutional pessimism that drives the market lower and institutional turns to bullishness that drives the market higher but point is through and through retail is buying the dip now I want to talk about specific stocks that retail is buying but first a message from our sponsor and the bar down below will have a little indication in terms of how long that sponsor is but before we get into the next part I want to thank today's sponsor MooMoo Mumu is an advanced One-Stop trading app that makes it easy for Traders to do any and everything that you need one of the main reasons MooMoo is amazing over other platforms is because they offer the ability to trade globally meaning I could trade in Hong Kong and the US markets all from the same platform no logging into other platforms what a headache MooMoo also offers industrial chains at which provide a detailed picture of trending Industries like semiconductors or EVs and I don't like headaches that's why I like MooMoo keeping things simple they give you access to heat Maps as well so you can easily visualize Trends from the entire Market at a single time and trust me when I say these types of 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generally what we have but Twitter is getting delisted so it's kind of going to screw this up but the point is look at the Fang Mt purchases we had a spike here in the summer for these Mega cap names Amazon Apple Facebook Netflix look at the recent Spike though here really in August and September folks in the retail Community are convinced that Fang is the future now I personally really dislike Facebook I even said that after the or before their last earnings call I've never been a big fan of Facebook we talk about this in the course member live streams remember if you join any of the programs linked down below you get access to our daily live streams and we're launching a new program it's a conversion of the wealth path course into the elite Hustler scores that'll be launched in November but if you want to get the best price in any of the other programs make sure to use that Halloween coupon below but folks to me this is this is not terribly wrong I'm a big fan of some of these big names with the exception of Facebook I'm a big fan of Apple I think they grow margins and not only do they grow margins but they also grow sales in contrast with what's actually happening in a broader PC market sure services and iPhone sales are down sure but we knew that Google reported that as well in the Play Store and weakness in the smartphone sector has been known for a long time now when it comes to Google sure we're going to see weakness in advertising and we've got too many people at Google they took too long to respond to this recession but these are names even Amazon that are going to be with us for a long term in the a long time in the future especially Microsoft now I'm not the biggest fan that margins at Amazon are declining as they reduce some of their prices to make sure they can hold on to some of more of their customers Microsoft is probably going to have to deal with some of that as well within their Cloud business but these are the Power Players again it's a sign that retail continues to trust equities when the big names have inflows equities are still trusted what else do we have though well we have to talk about this this one is specifically Netflix Netflix purchases huh so Netflix purchases Netflix isn't one that I'm super excited about however I will say they've returned to growth and they've actually impressed pretty decently just in the last two weeks Netflix has increased 32 percent in its share price it's gained about 67 dollars worth of share price and in the summer come May and June these folks were trading for about 187 now they're trading for nearly 300 per share a huge movement in Netflix and the bulk of the purchases from retail here happen to be in the October month and I'll tell you Netflix has been rocketing in October now hopefully retail has been able to enjoy some of that 30 gain that we've had since the bottom October 11th the recent bottom or the summer bottom in the 160s and 180s but again this is a reiteration that retail is confident in equities for the long term that's it's bullish here's another chart this is a chart that shows us retail purchases of bond ETFs now this is an interesting one because what you'll actually find is that retail purchases of bond ETFs we're at high levels over here in August when stocks were at higher levels remember we kind of rallied in August as treasury yields fell and mortgage rates fell uh and then we kind of hit a wall once that Jackson Hole Symposium happen in September that Jackson Hole meeting from Jerome Powell ah that let's just say it hurt uh and that came uh right at the end of 2020 uh or August 2020 too that was on August 26th and that's kind of a right if we kind of Mark an August 26th let's go ahead and do that we'll go ahead and draw up uh from the 26th right here look at that that's Peak retail buying and that's all of a sudden when the bond ETFs started falling and Retail fell out of favor now some people say that well retail just got excited because the prices of these Bond ETFs were going up but then again we had a feeling that potentially we had reached Peak yields and we hadn't yet because for example if you jump over now to the CNBC yield track or just go to the CNBC 10-year yield tracker and go ahead and pop over to oh I don't know let's go to three months over here because that'll show us August the yields were super low over here in August but they just came off of a high I'll go out to the sixth month and you'll see that trough see that trough here in August retail thought that's it we hit Peak yields and so why not buy the bond ETFs then so they were actually thinking by the dip we peaked out with yields now bonds rally they were just too early but now folks now we're starting to get the thought again that did we just hit P yields remember those GDP numbers that we just got this morning showed cooling inflation everybody's looking for signs of cooling inflation boy those GDP numbers were exciting now I want to go through some specific stocks as well look at the retail net purchases on a five-day period here in millions okay look at what retail is buying the biggest by far in terms of retail purchases Tesla by a factor of 2x Amazon meta coming in after that I highly think that's a mistake I think that uh VR and augmented reality is 20 years too early the metaverse is 20 years too early Nvidia big fan of this big fan of Tesla big fan of Apple Netflix you know I'm moderate on that I'm not the biggest fan here I'm actually a bigger fan of of of uh Disney myself uh AMD big fan big fan absolutely Alibaba okay this is another thing vandertrack is telling us that Chinese adrs are being bought heavy on the dip you've got Neo over here as well I personally think that's a mistake I would rather buy Taiwan semiconductors right here much rather they have less exposure to China and I'd much rather be in tsmc for art for artificial intelligence chips just chips in general that I would want to be in you know the consumer sector for Chinese absolutely not not with that housing collaps are going again we could see a 10-year period of pain for the Chinese consumer and adrs are something that have are the listing risk they have auditing risk they're just something that I really don't want to touch uh so uh you know if you want a dividend stock here you've got a t you've got Chevron uh you've got Coca-Cola which smashed earnings you've got Intel which had okay earnings today Austin Dental is really a Warren Buffett you know shoulders play following the leadership of of uh Warren Buffett fine Shopify actually surprised really nicely today so I have to say their earnings call just straight up sucked we went through it with course members and the earnings call was not good it was not very insightful if anything uh the executives were really trying to dodge the fact that their margins are suffering and their growth just isn't the way it was so we'll see uh you've even got Nike in here anyway uh these are some interesting stats to pay attention to just to see some of the behavior by retail so hey if you found this helpful uh check out the links down below for building your wealth thank you to MooMoo for sponsoring and folks we'll see in the next video good luck everyone goodbye
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