저자: LarkDavis · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오의 CNBC 발언을 인용해 현재 주식·비트코인이 버블 단계일 수 있으나, 통화정책이 긴축으로 전환되기 전까지는 버블이 터지지 않는다고 해석. 연준 금리인하·QT 종료로 유동성이 확대 중이며 S&P500·나스닥 신고가와 리스크온 환경이 비트코인 상승 여지를 연다고 봄. 다만 내년 연준 긴축 신호 시점부터 리스크가 급증할 수 있어 대비가 필요하다고 주장. 제작자는 현재 주식·크립토에 투자 유지 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
What if the bubble in stocks and Bitcoin is actually inflating right now, but the real windfall arrives first, propelled by easy money and peak euphoria before everything comes crashing down later on? Or to make it even more simple, what if the biggest gains are just around the corner, but you might not want to hold on to your bags for too long because the big crash is coming soon after that.
I know what you're thinking, Mark. We're already the big crash. What the you talking about? I know, but listen to what we have to say here because there's some very interesting information that I want to share with you particularly about equities, but I think it also equally applies to the cryptocurrency markets, even though they're getting slaughtered right now.
The core of this idea comes from Ray Dallio, investing legend, in an interview that he gave last week on CNBC. So, let's watch the main snippets from Dallio's interview, break down his logic, cross reference it with some charts, and then tie it back to Bitcoin. Ray Dallio, here's the most important pieces from his CNBC interview, which aired last week.
Have a listen. Do you think that concentration is is indicative of a bubble? This is the big question. There's a lot of bubble stuff going on. I have a bubble indicator, but bubbles don't pop really until they are popped by tightness of monetary policy and so on. It's we're going to be more likely to ease rates than to tighten rates.
And so you have this two-part economy. The easing of the rates is because most of the economy is elements are weakening. If you're looking at a lot of the economy, you see a weakening in that economy at the same time as there's this bubble going on in or at developing. So you a monetary policy for both is not going to work because it because of that element of divergence.
So I think it's probably going to produce more of a bubble. I would think it's probably something like maybe 98, 99, 27, 28 and [clears throat] so on. So there's a lot of risk. We certainly must say that whether or not it's a bubble and when that bubble's going to burst, maybe we don't know exactly, but what we can say is there's a lot of risk.
So there you have it. Now let's clarify Dalio's specific claims here. First, Daloo said that bubbles usually pop once monetary policy begins to tighten. Two, we are in the beginning of a monetary easing phase right now. It should only further inflate the bubble. It's going to be bigger. You ain't seen nothing yet.
three. Although he acknowledges that no one knows for certain, Dalio's best guess is that maybe we're in a period similar to 1927 to 1928 or 1998 to 1999, aka a couple more years of massive rally left before extreme pain. And number four, even though we might be on the cusp of some serious gains relatively soon, there's still plenty of risk in this current setup.
Every bull market climbs the wall of worry because right now we're dancing relatively close to the cliff. Let's analyze a few of Dalio's key claims. The first was that the financial bubble usually pops once monetary policy begins to tighten. Now, overall, Dalio is correct here. Well, central banks begin or signal that they are going to raise interest rates or they begin quantitative tightening.
That's a major regime change. It tightens up liquidity in the markets and investors reduce risks. They get out of tech stocks and stuff like that, which in turn creates a contraction in financial markets. This would happen in 2022. So if the bubble was here right now, then well, many times in history, this monetary tightening was the needle that popped it.
Notable examples are the 1929 US crash, the 1990 Japan crash, the 2000.com crash, and it was a contributing factor in the 2008 financial crisis. Now, with this as our foundation, Ray Dallio then claimed that right now we're at the beginning of a major monetary easing phase right now. Fed's cutting rates, QT.
And of course, he's correct. Again, here's the effective Fed fund rate right now. By the way, anytime that the Fed has cut when markets are at all-time highs, we have not had a giant crash or recession right around the corner. Okay? It comes a bit later. who got a cut last month. We're probably going to get another cut in December.
Despite whatever hawkish gibberish that pal has been saying, he's just hedging his bets. Whenever Trump installs a new Fed, which will be basically his direct puppet, to the chair in May, we can almost guarantee that you'll see Fed fund rates drop a lot further. I think Trump has said he wants like 1% rates.
So, he's going to get a guy who's going to do 1% rates. Moreover, the Fed is ending quantitative tightening or QT on December 1st. that will have a simulative effect on the US M2 liquidity scene. And while there's no official signal from the Fed that they'll be starting up QE, it is something to watch out for next year or even various forms of sort of stealth QE of liquidity injections into the system, especially if we see some kind of crisis with the US repo market liquidity system.
So that's already kind of brewing right now. Or if the Fed needs to take more aggressive action to stimulate the economy, we can see QE come quicker than people think. But regardless, Dalio thinks we're in a period of monetary expansion. From what I've seen, I think he's correct as global M2 is projected to keep going up from here.
You'll also remember that Ray Dallio said he thinks we might be in a period similar to 2728 or 98.99. Remember, market topped in 29, market topped in 2000. So, [snorts] what is Ray Dallio talking about here? Well, before we keep going, let's talk freedom, particularly online freedom. Look, I've been using NordVPN for years because it actually works.
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And it's one of the most affordable VPNs out there. Use the link right down below. Grab the offer and give yourself true online freedom. Do it today. Thanks to NordVPN for sponsoring today's video. So, here is the S&P 500 from 1927 through the end of 1928. You can see that by the end of 1928, the S&P had only another 9 months of basically up only before the top was in.
Here is the S&P from 98 through 99. And again, by the end of 1999, you can see the end was getting near. It took just 2.5 more months for the S&P to hit its top. So clearly, clearly Ray Di was telling us that the markets are pretty overheated, but not ready to pop yet. He basically thinks we might have another year, maybe two.
There's a window of time ahead of us where things will keep going up. Six months, two years approximately. I know it's a big window, but nobody can predict the future, right? During that time, explosive gains, particularly in equities, will be had someday, maybe in crypto, too. Then a large crash will come.
A horrific crash driven in part by massive white collar unemployment from AI and robotics. But remember, according to Dallio, the key factor here is liquidity, baby. So, as long as the Fed is working the printers, then asset valuation should keep going up. But as soon as there is the slightest whiff or signal that the Fed is going to reverse course, hike interest rates, start quantitative tightening again, then that's it.
Get the hell out, run away, take a chips off the table, and wait for the bottom to come. That appears to be Dalio's main message here, along with the fact that there's a lot of risk in this setup. And for what it's worth, I generally agree with Ray Dallio. I mean, he's way smarter than I am. Okay, let's just put that out there, right?
But we talk about this stuff all the time here on the channel. If central banks are going to flood the global market with fiat, if interest rates are going to drop precipitously, QT is going to end, all that kind of stuff, then it makes sense to remain optimistic on the market until we get a change of course from the Fed.
Will it be a bumpy ride? It always is. Will we climb the wall of worry of the bull market? We always do, but we're not to the bubble popping phase yet. So, I'm not walking away with my chips at this point. I'm staying deployed in the markets, even if it's been painful, particularly for crypto. My stocks are doing great.
my crypto not so much. A quick note, if you like these macro takes to make sure to read my newsletter. It's free. It's awesome. There's a link down below. Three times a week, we cover macro stocks, crypto, all kinds of stuff. It's insane. Wild, wild value for a free newsletter you can get right now.
Link down below. So, here's the deal. The stock markets, they just keep pushing it into all-time highs. Yeah, there's some bumps along the way, but there always is. That strength in the risk markets, that risk on attitude right now does open the door for Bitcoin to do the same. Will it do it immediately?
No, it never works like that. But here's where the S&P 500 is at currently, just under 6,900 at the time of recording this video. Maybe it's a bit less by the time you're watching this. It's bit of a frothy week in the stock markets, but anyway, here is October 10th. Today, a Bitcoin crashed from $120,000 to $107,000.
The S&P has made a new all-time high since then. Here's the NASDAQ. This was the day of the Bitcoin crash. And since then, the NASDAQ has broken for 26,000, a new all-time high as well. Here's Bitcoin down, down, down, down, down. Look, I've said before, we'll say it again. Whenever the stock markets are making new all-time highs that signals that the market is risk, it's a green light for Bitcoin to go higher.
The fact we've been so relatively decorated from the equity markets over the recent couple of months has been very notable. We've also absorbed literally hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin from OGs who have been cashing out over $100,000. And yes, I think Bitcoin goes higher, especially given our M2 and liquidity backdrop, what the central bank is doing right now.
So, I'm expecting more all-time highs for stocks and more for Bitcoin through the rest of the year and well into next year. But as we get into next year, risks start increasing exponentially. Perhaps after the new Fed chair is installed in May, then we need to have another conversation about when the Fed might start signaling an end to their monetary expansion phase.
Because I agree with Dalio. There will be some serious pain in the markets whenever all this stops when the party's over of the loose financial conditions of the low interest rates inflational spike again. All that comes back and that's the change regime that we have to get out of the market for. Okay.
Whenever the central banks start telegraphing the next tightening phase, pay attention. Be ready to react. Okay? We want to be well ahead of that. But that's conversation for next year at some point. For now, markets favor the upside, even if not today in the crypto markets.
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