저자: LarkDavis · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 S&P500 과대평가와 멀티플 압축에 따른 대폭락 가능성을 경고했다는 내용. 실질 기준 역사적 밸류에이션(CAPE 27대)을 근거로 PE 축소 시 32~77% 하락 시나리오를 제시. 인구 구조 변화로 패시브 자금 유입이 둔화되고 AI 실업 우려가 더해질 수 있다고 주장. 버젓 워런 버핏의 현금 비중 최고치도 신호로 언급. 다만 버리의 과거 예측 적중과 오판 사례를 함께 짚으며 단기 매도 신호에는 회의적 시각도 보임.
다듬은 글
Big dog Michael Burry called 2008's massive financial crisis. He's back. He's saying sell now. He's also saying he can't short forever. So, we got that going. We will have to discuss in today's video looking at Michael Burry's warnings, what he's saying, and what it could mean for your portfolio. First and foremost, what's the Where's the money?
Show me the money, Burry. Let's go. So, Michael Burry published a detailed analysis on Substack warning of potential S&P 500 major crash. This projections backed by over 100 years of market data. Key chart, the S&P 500 adjusted for inflation tells a different story to the nominal chart. Buyers in 1930 could have held for 25 years and still been down 50% from 2000 to 2010, the inflation-adjusted S&P went down significantly.
An entire lost decade. Done pretty good since then. We had what, a 16-year bull run? Maybe it's just time. Time for a terrible crash. The idea that the stock market always goes up in real terms is a myth. This is the S&P 500 inflation-adjusted. You can see real peaks versus non-real peaks. But, it's not about earnings.
Investors assume higher earnings equal higher stock price. Burry's point, price equals earnings x multiple, but earnings are not what moves the most. The multiple, the PE ratio, is variable that drives most of the big moves. This is the S&P 500 ratio, 27.16 right now. What the data actually shows, adjusted for inflation and real earnings growth over the past century, is modest, actually.
So, for all the people saying we're in this crazy bubble, the data does not support your claims, even if things did get a bit overheated in AI late last year. Dramatic stock market moves are driven more by expansion and compression of the PE multiple and less by change in business performance. Multiple compression drives bear markets.
1966-1982 PE compression drove losses while earnings grew. 2000-2009 PE compressed by 98% even though earnings growth was 46%. Burry writes, multiple compression is the primary mechanism of bear markets. Where might the S&P 500 land? Well, [sighs] [snorts] put your diapers on, guys, cuz there's some nasty numbers here.
Using the average PE ratio since 1990, 32% down, the S&P 500 goes to 4700. Using the average PE from 1927 to 2026, we're going to go down 52%. And what would be the catalyst for this? PE? What Trump's doing right now in Iran, closing a causing a global economic recession, potentially a depression, especially if the conflict continues to go on for months more.
The biggest energy crisis of potentially ever, really. Using the post-1980 trough PE, we're going to go down 72% S&P 500 at 1935. Using the all history trough PE, down 77% S&P 500 at 1600. If this really happens, oh man, I like my kidneys, but can always buy a new one later. Oh, boy. So, where might the S&P 500 land?
Look, this is Shiller CAPE downside scenarios. It's all possible. If we have an economic depression globally, all bets are off in that scenario. And again, I don't You know you guys know I don't like being a doomer. Okay, life's electric, baby. It's a vibe. Be an optimist. Go vibe code something. We'll be waiting for all this to play out.
Hey, if you're not in the inner circle yet, we would love to see you in there. This is our private investor community, our trader community. We're sharing regular long and short calls on crypto, stocks, metals. We're sharing hot tech stocks before they rip, hot altcoins so you can know are they are they not.
We give you no BS reports on those. You can get our AI tools, that's our trading signal bot, our agent Lark bot to analyze tokens, and much, much more. Link down below, you're going to get a 7-day free trial. Love to see you in there. Thank you very much. So, the passive investing time bomb. The passive index fund model relies on more money flowing in than flowing out.
Right now, working-age adults contribute a portion of every paycheck into the S&P 500 index funds while retirees withdraw. As long as inflows exceed outflows, prices will continue to rise. It's a structural long-term bid. But, here's the time bomb. Demographics are flipping really everywhere right now, to be honest, except like the Congo, few other places like that.
Most countries are facing most of the developed economies are facing extreme demographic stresses. Baby boomers are retiring in record numbers. Working-age population is entering labor market and it's slowing. When outflows exceed inflows, the market goes down structurally. So, the forces that have structurally sent us higher and higher could be coming to an end.
Then, of course, we have the AI unemployment crisis coming. Jobs lost to recession, AI, or anything else equals negative effect on passive flows, cuz guess what? All those people who'd be normally investing 5% of their paycheck into the S&P 500, they ain't got no job, man. Market signals to watch out for, the unemployment rate trajectory.
The higher it rises, the closer we are to the danger zone. And with everything that's going on right now with the Iran conflict, with the private credit bubble, with the AI situation, risks have never been higher. PE ratios, these are elevated and in an uptrend. Warren Buffett's cash position, currently the highest portfolio percentage in Berkshire Hathaway history.
Warren has been sitting patiently waiting for the crash of crashes. In fact, he did an interview just the other day. And the lady asked, "Well, what are you buying?" He said, "We're not buying anything. We're waiting for lower prices." He knows. The goat knows how to position. Look, if we are entering the most bearish times, cash is king during bear markets.
No matter what you may think about fiat currencies, cash is king. And right now, the market's showing its hand. Even the safe haven assets are going down. I'm not even talking about magic internet money, which is getting slaughtered. Metals are going down. Oil's going up. Hey, yay, great. Go buy some barrels of oil, store them in your backyard.
Metals are getting hit. Everything's getting hit. Stocks are getting slaughtered, okay? Understand that buy and hold, dollar cost averaging are not guaranteed strategies in a secular bear market. Especially if you are on a shorter time frame. Now, if you can wait 10 years and you're just dollar cost averaging during the bear market, you're probably going to do very, very well over time, in 10 years when the market starts running again.
Remember that the inflation-adjusted history of the stock market shows that timing does indeed matter, despite what you might be told on the internet, timing does indeed matter. Now, that's what Mr. Michael Burry said. Will he be right? Like any investor, Michael Burry's had some times when he is fantastically right and fantastically wrong.
Nailed the 2008 thing. He was early, but he still nailed it and made tons of money. Then, at the end of 2022, I think basically right at the exact bottom or very, very close to the exact bottom of the bear market when like Facebook was already down 75%, stuff like that. The Nasdaq, everything was just slaughtered at that point.
Crypto was slaughtered. Michael Burry posted one thing, sell now. Was a terrible time to sell. Absolutely horrifically terrible time to sell. And had you listened to Michael Burry's advice at that point, you would have missed out on 2023, 2024, 2025's insane market moves. Instead, he should have been posting buy now, cuz Facebook's down 75%, Nvidia's down whatever percent.
Buy it, hold it, come back in a few years, sell everything. That's fine. He did, by the way, back in 2025, very successfully short a lot of the top AI stock names and made tons of money. And he recently posted you can't short forever. So, is he closing out his shorts? Maybe. Maybe. I could see that.
Wouldn't surprise me. So, if he is closing out his shorts, then that means he probably thinks some of the the majority of the move, the meat of the move, the best part, the most juicy part of the move, is potentially done. Michael Burry, at the end of the day, is an investor and a trader. He has his convictions.
Sometimes he gets things right, very famously so. Sometimes he does not. And we all give him for it. But, hey, Michael, you're a trend warrior. You're in there every day, man. Respect where respect's due, sir. Let me know what you think down below in the comments section. Will Michael Burry be right this time?
Are we going to have an apocalyptic lost decade-like scenario playing out? Or is Trump going to [snorts] taco, oil prices going to fall, stocks going to rip, we're going to have a great 2026 after all this kerfuffle finishes? Let me know your thoughts down below. Thank you for watching. I'll see you back in the next one. Peace.
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