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Ray Dio predicts a horrible economic crisis where everything will collapse no good reason to go to the dollars and you know and they don't then they're worried about holding the dollars because they might get sanctioned and so you see more of those transactions taking place in other currencies and then the usefulness of the dollar as a stor hold of wealth changes it's like think about it in um you know the the the most fundamental way um everybody wants uh a medium of exchange and a storeold of wealth so in other words if if everybody's using the dollar in World Trade then you want to save in dollars because you say okay now that's the thing I spend in and I and I save in the dollars um but over time as the share of World Trade trade goes down why aren't they denominating in who like China has a larger share of World Trade traditionally the countries that have the world's Reserve currency have the largest share of World Trade and the largest share of world Capital flows and because the United States has declined and also there's a worry about that um holding it because of sanctions I mean just imagine how the Chinese must feel about having a lot of money in treasury bonds you know like I would be worried that I would like be treated like Russia would be treated I'm it's not something I would want to hold uh as you know a safe asset and and other countries like who might feel that they can get sanctioned and for all those reasons uh they're less inclined to hold um and when we when we call dollars what we're really calling is dollar debt because you don't hold you hold dollar debt and that's a pro what is a debt it's a promise to Rel receive currency so okay so now getting out of those things and transacting in other currencies seems to be the safer thing to do for those countries and so that's the dynamic that's taking place so it's it's um it's not an attack on the dollar it's like I don't want to hold those things and um so very similar to on the British pound you know what happened is the British had the war and they were the most powerful empire ever in the world and they had World War II and they came out of World War II uh financially in debt a lot of debt and who hold who held the debt all these countries held the debt because that was the residual from them but they had a problem they had a debt problem and so they needed a print more money because it was too much of a squeeze and then you had so it deteriorated and then they you know they sort of said please hold my DBT please hold my debt they went to commonwealth countries the part of those that were in the former British Empire and then you had the Suz Canal incident where um there's sort of a a a war and everybody realizes well hey wait a second that British Empire ain't the British Empire and they're heavily in debt and then they say I don't want to own that debt and there went the British pound so that's just how the Mechanics Work the reason Cycles exist is that the next stage has been determined by what has already happened in the prior stage so we are in debt a lot you you can't change that we got a lot of debt and if you say what could you do I mean two things come to mind what you could do is you could be financially strong and you can not use uh Financial sanctions as a weapon to scare the holders of those bonds but to be financially strong requires you to not spend more than you earn that means you either have to cut your spending or raise your earnings okay that's okay that ain't easy okay okay so are we going to cut cut our spending um uh um okay now you look at it what are you going to uh infrastructure programs I don't know poverty transfers defense spending okay what what do we going to cut um the world governments have the same basic economics as um people except for the fact that they can take money from one person and Sh give it to another and they can print money that's it and so when you look at this um okay you have that Gap you can eliminate the Gap by taking money from some and eliminating another and not spending much okay okay that's not easy right okay okay what are you gonna the most governments now uh don't think how much money do I have to spend and then how do I prioritize that they think I need to spend on this I need to spend on that and I need to spend on that and they spend on it and then they either produce a they produce a deficit and then you either have to pay it back with hard money or printed money and that's situation so when you say what could we do well you've got to get financially strong in a politically fragmented environment in which everybody wants more and you and you have to um you know like be a higher percentage of World Trade so that everybody wants to use your currency and um be um and not threaten the holders of that bonds with freezing their assets Ray Delio predicts a horrible economic crisis where everything will collapse that the global order took shape in 1945 following the conclusion of world war e akin to how internal conflicts can pave the way for a new order within a nation for example the conclusion of the Chinese Civil War in 1949 marked the initiation of a fresh chapter for China these transformative shifts usually arise from conflicts essentially representing struggles over the functioning of established systems.in the aftermath of conflicts a sort of equalizing effect takes place debts are settled and a reset occurs leading to the rise of new powers in The Case of the United States the post-world war E Period ushered in the American Le world order with 80% of the world's gold the basis of currency at the time the strongest military and nuclear capabilities the US emerged triumphant from the war this Victory laid the foundation for the American World Order where the US played a significant role in global Affairs including defining territorial boundaries this phenomenon is not exclusive to the 20th century it is a recurring pattern throughout history new regulations are established giving rise to periods of peace and prosperity the unchallenged position of the dominant power discourages conflicts fostering a stable environment however this stability often stems from the collective psychology shaped by the war those who have witnessed the horrors of War typically emerge with a strong desire for peace and reconstruction this era often Witnesses reduced wealth disparities and collaborative efforts to build a flourishing society yet as Prosperity expands so does inequality with wealth gaps widening over time the affluent can afford better opportun unities for their children perpetuating this divide simultaneously economies witness a growing burden of debt and other countries including former adversaries like Germany and Japan undergo reconstruction and transform into formidable competitors the distinct influence wielded by the triumphant Nation gradually diminishes in the face of escalating Global competition a new generation accustomed to affluence and potentially less fiscally conservative comes into prominence additionally the Victorious Nation often assumes the role of the holder of the world's Reserve currency a crucial element for international transactions much like a common language is indispensable for effective communication nevertheless As Time advances this scenario undergoes a transformation encountering challenges to the established order both from internal Dynamics and the ascent of new Global powers do the prevailing perception is that it is the most stable Choice prompting a preference for Savings in it there are three pivotal forces to track and comprehending their Cycles provides Clarity firstly it is crucial to assess whether a country is generating more Revenue than its expenditures considering a country as a collective entity of its citizens it is vital to determine whether it is accumulating savings through higher earnings or acre debt through increased spending after all one person's debt translates to another's asset When a Country carries significant debt and continues to introduce more currency the value of its money tends to decrease this process results in reduced returns heightened inflation and ultimately discourages individuals from holding cash and bonds this situation gives rise to an environment of escalating interest rates amid inflation known as stagflation presently this is not a subject of debate but a tangible reality there is a substantial accumulation of debt excessive spending relative to earnings and rampant money printing all contributing to heightened inflation during such periods holding cash becomes disadvantageous prompting an increase in interest rates this constitutes one of the three critical factors currently observable that the second force is internal conflict this entails evaluating whether a society functions harmoniously with a shared Mission or if it is marked by Discord that jeopardizes the stability of the system historical evidence indicates that when individuals prioritize their causes over the system's functionality the system itself becomes vulnerable this precarious situation can lead to disorder and potentially result in a form of civil Strife indications of this include escalating political polarization and the emergence of populism on both the left and right populists fervently advocate for their factions neglecting moderation and compromise beneficial for all such extreme partisanship has the potential to undermine the Integrity of the system as witnessed in the 1930s when several democ acies turned to dictatorship amid disorder and internal conflict
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