저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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달리오는 미국이 막대한 부채·과잉지출·통화남발로 스태그플레이션 위험에 놓였다고 경고한다. 내부 정치 양극화와 시민 갈등 가능성, 미중 경쟁 및 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 확전 위험도 언급한다. 교육·법치·부패 지표가 국가의 장기 성과를 예측한다고 강조하며, 중국의 1인당 소득 상승과 기술 경쟁력 부상을 평가한다. 투자 방향에 대한 직접적 종목·자산 예측은 제시하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
please subscribe to the channel and let's discuss significant upcoming issues not good Investments and don't last very long or whatever you know for entertainment at the S of buy so for example in the United States I remember when we had a per capita income which was 40 times China and we started borrowing from China so these are the ingredients and then you start to see that they cause problems the financial problem the internal conflict problem and so on and then the type of fighting that we're talking about it's so interesting because in the mid 1600s this is interesting there was 30 years of war that called it the 30 years war in Europe and they just kept beating the Daylights out of each other and that is when they invented countries as we know it before then there were no boundaries and What mattered was power and if you wanted something that the other guy had you'd go get it and he'd do the same with you and there was this constant fighting about things and then in the 1600s they were fighting about religion too you know there's the religious reformation and the others which also had to do with power because the church was powerful but anyway so they invented countries As We Know It with boundaries and you determine what goes on in your borders and so on and of course for the next 100 years there were hardly any wars but when the time comes there's no Universal legal system you know there's no un ival policemen so if you don't have a universal legal system they've been attempts of that with the United Nations or what before that the League of Nations they attempted that but Power rules and so you're going to have tests of power it it will come down to tests of power I want everything that I do to not be opinionated a very big leading indicator is the relative level of education and those that have more educated population and you could see the numbers rise you could see education levels in one country or another rise or decline in these charts so you could see how is the United States in its education and how are other countries and is that Gap improving or worsening because education levels are very indicative of well-being and economic behavior rule of law countries that have rule of law and respect for the law that keeps order and effectively when crime rates go up it's problem a very good indicator is corruption levels there's a corruption index that all countries have you can see how it changes and as it goes up there's a negative 52% correlation with the growth of a country and its corruption over the next 10 years the USA is reasonably good on the corruption element Russia is bad you know it's interesting because these are predictors of the future and what you find out is like if you look at Russia I'll give that as an example it's blessed with the greatest natural resources of any country in the world the value of its natural resources are 40% higher than the next highest country which is the United States and it does a pretty good job of having an educated population it's not heavily indebted and so on but it's cultural issues in terms of these things like corruption also there are measures of bureaucracy versus efficiency lots of measures of attitude can I start a business and Make My Dreams happen you can see the differences between countries on just that attitude okay and also you could see it in the bureaucracy how long does it take to set up a business there are statistics like that if there was education and experience from the age of 5 to 15 that would change everything we learn differently scientists have shown prior to puberty we learn in an internal way and you'll find that a number of people had their passion at around age 12 12 because that has to do with how the brain changes but if you take that 5 to 15 and you incorporate it in the education system and practice of saving spending and so on you don't need a PhD in this thing the money thing is kind of very basic you know if I can buy it for less than I sell it that's a good thing the more volume I could do the better it is then there are fixed costs and there are variable costs so if I'm going to build a stand a lemonade stand okay what's that going to cost me okay that's a capital expenditure it's all the same stuff that you could learn you know at those ages and you don't I spent a lot of time in China starting in 1984 not to earn money CU they didn't have any money but because I was very curious and then I got to know and like the people and I was able to help them develop their stock markets and things and and so I watch since I came since 1984 when I first started per capita income has increased by 26 times the poverty rate measured by hunger went from 88% to less than 1% and life expectancy increased an average of 10 years hunger was 88% that type of poverty and so what has happened is they have become a roughly comparable power of the United States in some ways a bit ahead in some ways a bit behind and so on and that to most things if you talk about a military is it in that region is it of that type or is it another type or something but it's comparable if you talk about technology when I first went to China I would give $10 calculators to people and they thought they were Miracle devices now if you take it in artificial intelligence and most Technologies there depends on the one there may be ahead in some and not so what that means is that they've come up to be a leading competitive power there's no other competitive power like that now a lot of countries now which is scary are roughly comparable in military meaning if you have a war if we have a war with Russia it's not like the United States is militarily dominant or so and there more countries have become that way we spend more and we have bases in 70 countries but at the same time that means we're overextended or extended and it doesn't mean that you'd win a war if there was a war in Europe everybody be a loser and there are different types of Wars Cyber Wars as well as military Wars and the like what we're now having is a situation where there is that rivalry that could be good healthy competition however history has shown when you deal with who's going to set the rules of the game there might be disagreements and if there are disagreements how are they resolved like the trade dispute it's not like both sides took it to the World Trade Organization and say we're going to plead our cases and then you make a decision they didn't even think about that right they go to I'm going to do this if you do this and that's where we are sort of so the world is breaking up into these parts where there are two sides kind of like if you look at World War II by way of example you know there are the Allied powers and the Axis powers and then they're in Europe and in Asia and they're different alliances in Europe than there are in Asia because each has their own interests and it's developing that way so when you take the Ukraine and you look at the Ukraine and that that's more aligned with the other side let's call it the access powers which are the challengers to the United States and to some extent the Euro NATO powers and you have that conflict and you could see in a number of Statistics or actions how the sides are lining up like for example they just ask are you going to apply the sanctions or not are you going to do this and that in the United Nations did you vote against Russia or not and so on and you could see all those things and you could see how the sides line up for example India lined up with Russia so you could see how this is lining up and you could see that we're coming into this there's no conversations and Communications that's even polite between the two countries right now these things and and that's where we are and if you look at history that's a dangerous place to be I think that there's better than even chance of a bad stag flation very bad stag flation because of the Dynamics I'll say one and three chance but I think it's actually probably higher than that that we have a type of Civil War internal conflict in which the rules are not followed the compromises are not made that maybe they don't accept losing an election that there's movement of people to different states that they believe represent them better and there's a polarity developing and the going to different States and that there's not obeying the central government so now it becomes a power gang I'm in the business I need to be objective because accuracy is my thing I have to be as accurate as possible I'm not saying that's accurate but I'm saying when I look at that I don't think on I assuming that's one and three I think it's actually probably higher than that there will be that kind of a situation and I think it's higher than a one and three I think maybe significantly higher that you get into the same conflict in the power international for example does Russia or the West win the war in the Ukraine I'll Define uh Putin winning the war as three things he gains control of the eastern part of the Ukraine Russia's economy is not devastated by sanctions and he remains in power so that's him winning the war because in the beginning of that it was worth his cost I mean he wants more than that he wants a neutral Ukraine or more an aligned Ukraine but he's not going to probably go get that but that's the minimum now that's him winning the war that's also kind of the West losing the war but if he loses the war if he loses that he will probably escalate okay because the war is now being played as a on the ground armies to armies and with sanctions but he has other weapons and rather than go down he will probably escalate that's a game of chicken it's a very dangerous game and there are other issues globally for example you're seeing these alliances work out and um the United States for various reasons sort of pull out of the Middle East perceived as the most stable option it is the preferred choice for savings monitoring three key forces and understanding their Cycles provide Clarity first examine if a country generates more Revenue than expenditures viewing a country as a collective of its citizens it's crucial to assess whether it accumulates savings through earnings or incurs debt through spending when a country holds substantial debt and continues currency issuance its money's value decreases leading to diminished returns and heightened inflation this scenario creates Rising interest rates amid inflation known as stagflation currently a visible reality marked by significant debt accumulation excessive spending and rampant money printing the second Force internal conflict assesses whether a society operates harmoniously with a shared Mission or is fraught with Discord jeopardizing system stability history indicates that prioritizing individual causes over system functionality renders the system vulnerable leading to disorder and potential civil Strife signs include political polarization populism's rise and extreme partisanship as witnessed in the 1930s when democracies turned to dictatorship amid internal conflict
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