저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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지정학적 긴장(우크라이나, 중동, 중국-이란 협력)으로 위험이 커졌다고 경고하며 현금은 쓰레기, 채권은 부채라 좋은 자산이 아니라고 봄. 법화 가치 하락 가능성을 말하며 금과 크립토 같은 대안 자산을 언급하고, 분산투자와 상관관계가 낮은 자산 조합으로 위험을 줄이라고 권고. 비트코인은 시장 규모 대비 과도한 집중 우려가 있다고 평가.
다듬은 글
please subscribe to the channel and let's listen about the approaching disaster remains in power so that's him winning the war because in the beginning of that it was worth his cost I mean he wants more than that he wants a neutral Ukraine or an aligned Ukraine but he's not going to probably go get that but that's the minimum now that's him winning the war that's also kind of the West losing the war but if he loses the war if he loses that he will probably escalate okay because the war is now being played as a on the ground armies to armies and with sanctions but he has other weapons and rather than go down he will probably escalate that's a game of chicken it's a very dangerous game and there are other issues globally for example you're seeing these alliances work out and um the United States for various reasons sort of pull out of the Middle East and you're seeing China more move in and so so these tensions exist and power exists there are more countries that have nuclear weapons now than there were you know there's even talk of joint military operations between China and Iran and so you see these sides begin to align so if I say that there's a one and three chance of some kind of a military confrontation that's scares the hell out of us over that is extremely I don't think that sounds too high I think it's larger than that so that means I think we're headed for some risky times because any one of those things is really is not normal it's pretty bad if everybody worries they don't have to worry if both sides think about what that's like and say I can't you know we must come together and make sure that that does not happen the best assets to not own that's the most important I think is cash and quoted cash is trash there will be a tightening here for the time being and that tightening will have an effect it'll hurt asset prices and so on but cash is not the asset tone and bonds are not good tone in my opinion because it's debt it's owning somebody's debt and you won't get a return think of it the interest rate will not reach the inflation rate so that's the problem then what you have to have I think most importantly is a well Diversified portfolio of other assets diversification is a very powerful tool because it can reduce risks with without reducing expected returns now there's lots of ways of getting what you think good Investments are they might be things you know about local businesses and so on or they might be stocks or they could be maybe a little gold or maybe a little bit foreign investing diversification is very important to do that in a balanced way so I would generally say that would be what I would recommend this was 19828 3 I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad to help to take care of my family bills so I remember thinking how many weeks could I live if I lost my income and I started counting in weeks I think that's the way to do it and then assume that its buying power over the next number of years can fall by 3 or 4% a year or if you put it in a risky investment like stocks or something it can fall buy more so cut that number maybe in half and have twice as much because you have to understand that that's your freedom that is your safety so that first ban you must take care of that once you get past that and you feel okay I could take care of my family in a worst case scenario then you have the freedom to then take other kinds of risk but when you're building that portfolio it's the same thing as when you have a lot of portfolio past that just you want to diversify well because you could see what happens to the markets every Market stock market bond market most markets have had times where they've gone down over an extended period perod 60 or 70% in buying power one thing I do for my kids and grandkids and always did was for every holiday like Christmas or their birthday I would give them a gold coin and I said I never want you to sell that gold coin until there's an emergency a real emergency never because you want to buy things and the reason I did that and they'll build over a period of time and I said don't even sell it you pass it to your kids unless there's an emergency and so you're building that savings because I think we so easily spend so much money on junk I didn't like debt because of the fact that there's an obligation and it's like oh if I get then I'm going to be drowning I'm trying to keep my head against water this is just my own bias but anyway the truth is if you find individual bets that are diversifying that your return will equal the average of those returns but your risk can be cut by 80% by a bet I mean like if you say I'm going to invest in the stock market you can see whatever the bet is look back in history it gives you a pretty good idea of how it goes up and down what your risks are do that by looking at it in inflation adjusted terms is the best way but it goes up and down and you can see how your buying power is if the worst case happened what would that look like and I'm telling you like I'm saying that the worst cases when you look at that is something like 60 or 70% in buying power whether that's stocks or bonds however if you do that with un cor related Investments like when Commodities go up bonds go down you know that kind of thing and you balance things then you find some part goes up when the other part goes down and by doing that you can reduce the risk without reducing the return Holy Grail means if you follow this path this will be the key to your riches 10 to 15 good uncorrelated return streaks I always have to think about what's the worst case scenario can I handle the worst case scenario or whatever that is you can be a great investor you can be great at anything and it'll only be one time that knocks you out one time will kill you it's often the case that I believe I can produce a significantly higher return I have than the cost that I pay for debt so it's a logical thing to do it and I still don't do it much and there's one thing about debt for consumption and debt for investment debt for consumption is really bad because the asset goes away and you're let with this obligation and you know that's risky and it's stressful piles up you're living above your means don't do that it's not a good idea whereas if you have debt for investment you better be pretty sure that the Returns on that investment will be higher than you have to give back in money in the form of both interest rates and the principal repayments the best investments are typically those things that you're closest to and they fall into two types those that affect your living standards like I think owning a house or an apartment or your residence affects your life a lot and the cost of it is not the cost of it in other words you buy it at a certain price it's not like the thing that goes away and you consume so you'll sell it at a certain price and probably you'll modify it over a period of time you'll make things and it produces kind of a forced savings that also brings you Joy and brings you a better environment generally speaking so and then the other thing is things you might know really really well is it your own little business but you could still take the cycle so those are the two things that I think that are good for I should say that one thing when I did that I discovered the three forces that I mentioned I discovered a fourth and a fifth that are very important and big one is that interestingly acts of nature in the form of droughts floods and pandemics have had a bigger impact than the things I've been talking about in terms of cost more lives or toppled more civilizations and those acts of nature so I think that's something probably that we have to be concerned about but number five over long periods of time 10 15 20 30 years the most powerful force is man's ability to adapt and invent here's a great depression and here's a war and as you see those things they look like blips on the chart of life expectancy per capita income and so on so there's a tremendous capacity for dealing with all the other stuff if man can adapt to it well and inventiveness during this period of time should be kind of I think really great because what we're using more and more is types of Technology artificial intelligence and so on the ability to think and collect data and use the computer to help us with that is a very very powerful force now like any forces it's also a risky Force because it can be used for bad as well as for good I think the world will evolve we will have these Cycles in the world so that's what you see you see these cycles and then you see Evolution through those cycles and adaptation and so I expect that but I would say there's the probabilities I gave you before you know that concerned me a lot will be unknown you know we have a lot of potential and a lot U things to worry about I think we're in an era of that money as we know it which is of Fiat money is being devalued and it's going to change the Dollar's rol is going to change and that alternatives are going to compete with that so like I wouldn't want to own money when you own a dollar let's say isn't the form of a debt instrument so you're going to get paid back in that and I think it'll have a negative real rate and negative buying power and so on in almost any currency and they're all competing so they're all devaluate essentially and so money is about the medium of exchange and a storeold of wealth that is portable and works in most countries and now we'll find out what those things are I mean gold is an example of one of those and crypto is an example of those you know maybe nfts are and who knows I think we're in a kind of a who knows kind of phase new things come along and I think they'll compete people will start to think about how do I have a portfolio of those things that are widely accepted that I can trans and that maintain buying power there was challenges to that like when you have a lot of volatility in it it means that oh my God my owning it is more risky than my not owning it and so that drives money into sort of other things but anyway we're going to struggle with that and you're going to see digital currencies in different countries and so on and I honestly don't know I don't think one thing wins out I do think that um a lot of uh the crypto like all markets they go through phases and there's kind of the bubble phase where it goes up a lot and everybody believes it and everybody's bought it and then you have the adjustments and so on I think there's too much emphasis in it because the total value you know of Bitcoin or even the cryptocurrency is comparable to the value of Microsoft one has to think when one thinks of assets I would rather think of that the whole array of assets than to think about you know just ooh is it going to be that crypto Bitcoin one I think could be too concentrated on that and I think that could be dangerous diversification is my key let me start off by I acquired it by an accident because the game that I happen to fall in love with if you learn to play the game well it pays well well I think that's true with a lot of people who are coming up with ideas and building businesses and so on they got excited about it that does it works well and and then it pays well to me it's a serious mistake thinking that success is measured in such things because money has no intrinsic value okay what does money get you and what do you need now what I want is freedom and the ability to be creative and do that's what I want and money helps me get that it helps me help other people it helps me have the impact I like those things about it I think that success is having the life that you want to have as long as you're earning more money than you spent and that can be spending very little and having a wonderfully luxurious life I watch a lot of people don't have much money of different ages sometimes young sometimes older they travel around the world they backpack they go to different cultures and different places they can live in a tent and the most beautiful nature is available to you or you can be in a hostel or you can meet in so many different and freedom and so on I think everybody should almost experience that to know that they can have a great deal of freedom without a great deal of money and that status thing is a silly thing okay that's like being hung up on living your life for approvals and so don't get on the track and lose sight that okay what is it that you really want in your life what is a successful life for you it's not measured by how much money you have or how much status you have or almost that other stuff it's measured in you know like I would say meaningful work and meaningful relationships if you have something as your work that into and your craft and it's a thing you love and you have meaningful relationships I think those are the most important things to make a rich life during this period wealth disparities decrease and collaborative efforts are made to construct a thriving Society however as Prosperity expands so does inequality resulting in widening wealth gaps over time the affluent possessing the means can afford Superior opportunities for their children perpetuating this disparity
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