저자: Kevin · 외국인
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경제지표(실업수당 청구 최저, 물가연동채 기대인플레 낮음 등)는 강하지만 고PER 성장주는 헤지펀드 숏 증가, 마진 디레버리징, 인플레 우려로 하락 중이라는 진단. 단기적으로 고밸류 주식 약세를 전망하나 장기(3분기 이상) 신고가 기대. 본인은 매도하지 않았고 마진 비율을 낮추는 중. 일부 소형 가치주(Goldman 리스트) 및 실적 시즌 이벤트도 언급.
다듬은 글
what the f is going on jobless claims came in at the lowest level we've seen during the entire pandemic last week 10-year treasuries are pretty stable around a 1.6 inflation protected securities or treasuries called tips which usually gives some indications of big inflation expectations aren't really pricing in big inflation expectations it's almost kind of like the bond market is starting to listen to jerome powell when he goes we ain't raising rates anytime soon and all of a sudden we get this flood over really good economic data in fact the united states might be on course to grow faster and end up being bigger than had we not had the pandemic which is crazy because if you think about it like we think oh we're on this course of growth as a country oh covet comes we dip and then we v back up to where we were uh uh we are on track to actually being back above that trajectory we were on before thanks to all the stimulus at least that's what the imf and the world bank see according to the financial times folks all the news coming in right now is pretty much good like really really good yet you look at stocks and you're like yeah i ain't seeing it in certain sectors on attack high multiple specs man not not seeing the happiness not seeing the goodness which is really kind of a weird twist because don't you remember last year when we had those memes of the child on the swing and the child on the swing was the stock market and the big fire in the background the building on fire was the economy it's almost kind of like in some sectors of the stock market that's reversed right now it's like the fire is high multiple stock or any high multiple stock and the kid on the swing is the economy because things overall data wise look like they're booming housing's booming to the point people believe we're in a massive bubble uh in index funds like the s p 500 and the dao are overall booming bonds aren't doing terribly again economic data is coming in crazy to the point where we're going to be larger than where we were before the pandemic and growing at a faster rate thanks to all the stimulus we still got a ton of freaking pain in different parts of this market and it really sucks and the question is why why is it happening well we have a new reason today and we're going to combine it with some of the other reasons and this hopefully gives us a clear picture of what's actually going on have we just made stupid decisions are we idiots for having bought the stocks we did and then now we're heavy bag holders and my arms are getting tired because i reference how my stocks are upside down every day sorry that's that's a reference to like the comments because in the comments it seems like everybody lately has been talking about how many bags they're holding and it's really bad for your psychology just stop looking but anyway let's try to understand what's causing this so first things first and the first thing here is actually a new piece today we had an interview that gave us a little bit of extra light and it's entirely possible that hedge funds are putting the squeeze on some of our favorite high value names because expectations are so lofty that this economy is going to boom so hard and that quarter one earnings are going to come in so strong and that quarter two earnings are going to come in so strong that hedge funds that might have large positions in companies like maybe because there is a large institutional ownership in companies like cciv or companies like tesla apple amazon whatever maybe some of these companies are starting to sell off a little bit mostly more like the the neos the ccivs the spax the tesla's the energy stocks the charger stocks the end phase right the higher multiple ones uh the etsy's the pinterest these anyway why why are we starting to see a selloff in these because when you have a higher multiple stock and expectations for that stock are very high so you've got high earnings expectations and it's already trading at a high multiple when something's trading at a high multiple it swings generally more to the downside than it does to the upside so if those high earnings expectations miss even slightly we could see a big swing to the downside on higher multiple stocks because they're built up on more of what i call hopium that's juicing up the stock valuation on some of these now if the companies hit that's great we win the stocks go back up hopefully well and and substantially that'd be nice and we go back to kind of the market that we were used to in maybe november december or january where we don't just have two months of pretty much straight down into the other but the problem is because these expectations are so high on the high multiple stocks and they are high multiple stocks so by virtue they have more room to go down hedge funds who are invested in these stocks are realizing it'd probably be prudent to short these stocks as a way to hedge their portfolio and this totally makes sense so just as an example if you have 100 million dollars as a hedge fund in tesla you don't want to lose clients when tesla goes down because if you're a hedge fund and you start getting phone calls like uh there was a crash with autopilot in texas what is going on i want to know about what the heck is happening in texas you know what i want my money out i can't believe you're investing in tesla i want my money up you want to be able to as any good hedge fund does respond and go you're so right in fact we were worried that something just like this can happen so we have 50 million dollars in shorts that we've actually leveraged up two to one so we basically protected the entire portfolio with shorts don't worry we're good we're shorting the snot out of tesla and you might think we were losing money today but oh no no no you should see the attendees we just baked on them tesla shorts they're so good at the same time though while hedge funds are playing keep the clients in the volatile time the rest of the market has what a less buyers of stocks like tesla or higher multiple stocks because the hedges aren't taking new money to buy shares they're taking new money to short the shares which is bad but then when you take new money to short shares you're actually creating more selling pressure so you're removing buyers and you're shorting it's literally like a double whammy of what the hedge funds are doing because they're worried that maybe earnings should go miss you you know your wedge hedge fund weenie babies gotta be prepared for maybe a miss because they don't want to lose a bunch of clients they can't diamond hand because your climates are gonna paper hand them it's kind of what's happening so that right there could be a very very very big reason we are in this sort of doldrum in many sectors in the stock market and to me i actually like hearing that because if these companies crush it with their earnings over the next year i ideally three quarters i've got a longer run mindset for for my stocks obviously in general 10 years plus but realistically i'm probably i'm not expecting to see some of the highs that we've seen for at least three quarters it's just what i'm building in i'm thinking like maybe it'd be a christmas gift we'll see that's just an expectation that i have that uh we'll see new highs coming towards you know september october and beyond so we're going to be going through a little bit of a ride here but it's going to take a while to squeeze these hedgies out again and make them close their shorts and it's going to take a lot of validation to prove that we should be at the valuations that we are because hedgies are really short-term thinkers weenie babies remember that okay they're really emotional about the short term so number one this is a big thing okay if hedgies are doing this folks edgy's got lots of money speaking of lots of money the nft that's available for sale to buy the dip song which you can see by going to metkevin.com i'm sorry actually it's wearable dot com slash real meet kevin uh that does expire tomorrow so check that out yet if you haven't seen it yet uh my proceeds will be going to charity but anyway the the second thing that we've got going on is the deleveraging but it's being accelerated remember in previous videos that we've talked about this deleveraging and this great deleveraging possibly coming we've been talking about how we think it's going to take probably until september october for us to get margin levels back down to maybe august levels of 2020 which was closer to like 650 billion dollars of margin and we're over 820 billion dollars as a country right now well it's probably going to take until august september for us to pay down that margin level but that deleveraging this sort of oh my gosh we're getting a little high on margin i think this deleveraging push is kind of getting accelerated by things like the arcagos drama the arcago's multi-hypoth or rehypothecation scheme that went on where basically the dude was able to say uh yeah yeah you could take my phone as collateral sure sure citibank take this as collateral hey credit suisse do you want to use my phone as collateral cool yo morgan stanley you want to use my phone as collateral and all of a sudden everybody's looking at the phone as collateral and all of a sudden when the phone falls and breaks i hope i didn't actually break it there no i didn't then uh then all of a sudden the bank's like what what you pledged the same phone to everyone the same money to everyone all of a sudden it's like yo we need less leverage this is bad well that same kind of de-leveraging i think is is echoing throughout institutions and it's removing buyer pressure or buying buying excitement i should say from institutions and it's leading to again softer prices which is reiterating why retail might also want to sort of de-leverage on their margin positions that's what i've been doing today i updated and usually i don't update this every day because it's it can be toxic but i did another pay down today of my margin and unfortunately the market fell a good chunk today some of my big high conviction names got smacked today specifically tesla uh and some others but anyway that happens so i am now instead of at 21.9 leverage even though i paid down money i'm at 22.8 oh come on man i'm trying i just just let me touch under 20 please i'm on my way but anyway so now you've got hedges shorting so remember they're removing buyer pressure shorting then you've got institutions maybe not buying deleveraging because of this archagos crap and just high margin levels in general then on top of that we still have fears that what if the fed is wrong and we end up seeing hyperinflation which in the long term inflation can help stocks but in in that short term which is really what your weenie babies care about in the short term stocks get wrecked in inflation at high especially in high inflation periods of times uh in the long term we'll end up balancing out but in the short term it's bad especially for high multiple stocks so you've got a lot of reason to to see red in the stock market right now especially in the high multiple stocks which is exactly what you're seeing and when i look at this as a basket i looking i go it's it's not it's not my picks that are doing bad it's the entire sector of high multiple stuff that's doing bad it's all of it that's doing bad and all that is is a clear sign that something's happening in the market what that something is we just determined we just figured out in my opinion what that is now i do want to give a few potential catalysts here and provide a little bit more information so uh first goldman i gave a few stocks that and this is goldman sachs so take it for what it's worth but this weekend in barons goldman gave a list of stocks that they believe are undervalued they said goldman's laggard list is surprisingly varied i'm just gonna read these off because you might find them interesting uh this was a good piece okay read it stocks that could pop on earnings reports okay okay uh i i agree with some of these activision blizzard i believe that some of these i don't know like air products and chemicals cf industries charter communications i mean obviously i know charter but anyway edison international and phase made it on the list i totally agree with that one because i'm heavy on end phase and i just like the last two months i've been like what really this is such a profitable company why why is end face tied up in this uh everest re group fiser fizz surf fi serve that's the payment the old school payment processor global payments intercontinental exchange legit and plat mcken mckesson te connectivity and t-mobile that's the laggard list we do also have uh so so watch out for those we do also have uh big earnings coming up ibm smashed earnings today which is really good for tech like really good for tech united flopped today which kind of is no surprise but is is a potential harbinger like of doom like of bad things to come like a warning sign like a profit of bad things to come for for recovery stocks because think about it united's like the first the first recovery stock here to report and i mean they didn't do well their earnings were not pretty they had to paint this narrative of don't worry don't worry we might have less flyers than we did in 2019 by like a lot like 42 percent and maybe half of our flights are pretty much empty but don't worry don't worry our margins are getting better even though we're making 20 percent less money per ticket than we used to don't worry it's bad okay it's bad so those are things to keep in mind uh when you're in recovery stocks as well uh tomorrow netflix and adobe report then chipotle on wednesday american airlines on thursday along with multiple multiple others baker hughes on wednesday lamb research nasdaq verizon on wednesday bank of america tomorrow boeing tomorrow moody's u.s bancorp public services enterprise group oh we got a lot abbott labs tomorrow csx oh my gosh i watched the movie the game yesterday and i almost wanted to read that as csr and i'm like wait are they real movie the game okay that whoo that was a head trip oh my gosh if you have not seen that yet watch that tonight oh my gosh rent it on amazon it's like 3.99 not sponsored that was good but what is sponsored by the way are my amazing programs linked down below that'll help you build wealth for the long term whether that's finding wedge deals in the real estate market which by the way i personally just found another wedge deal over a hundred thousand dollars below market value check that out if you uh check out that program if you have not uh yet but also consider bundling use that coupon code down below i do plan on having an expiration coming out for that code again mostly because people keep emailing me telling me kevin for the amount of value you put in these courses you've way undervalued these other people are charging way more for their courses so i do raise the price over time when they're expirations but anyway uh check out those programs down below friday we have american express honeywell international kimberly clark and schlumberger we also get manufacturing purchasers index and we get some census bureau report of sales for single single family homes in march which will be really important for uh the real estate market just to get our fingers sort of on the pulse of the uh the real estate market yeah so uh we do have some catalysts coming up some data sets i don't think as much data as we were as we got loaded up with last week but certainly some catalysts coming up and uh hopefully hopefully this uh this gives us a little bit of insight into some of the madness that's just happening in the stock market right now it certainly helps me to stay up to date with all this because it makes me feel uh a lot more willing to be a diamond hander because if you just think it's just your stocks getting burned and you don't see the correlation between why certain stocks are burning oh yeah then then it hurts then it hurts so you've really got to understand what's happening to uh feel less paper handy so anyway i've not sold anything i appreciate you all being here heck out those programs down below and folks see in the next video
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