저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리는 현재 시장이 2008년과 유사한 버블 상태이며, 패시브 인덱스 투자 확산이 버블을 키우고 있어 큰 폭락이 불가피하다고 본다. 2008년 금융위기 원인 정리: 주택담보대출을 은행이 과도하게 취급하고, 서브프라임 등 저신용 대출을 AAA부터 B까지 등급화해 투자자에게 판매했다. 탐욕과 투자자의 이해 부족이 결합되어 위기가 발생했다. 현재와의 유사성: 지난 10여 년간 대형 강세장이 이어졌고, 수조 달러 규모 자산이 인덱스 펀드·ETF에 몰리고 있다. 투자자들은 분석 없이 S&P500 같은 지수를 따라 사고 있어 2008년과 마찬가지로 탐욕과 이해 부족이 존재한다. 이 때문에 주가가 인위적으로 부풀려진 버블이 형성됐다고 본다. 인덱스 펀드 설명: 특정 시장 지수(S&P500 등)를 추종하는 펀드로, S&P500은 미국 대형주 500개로 구성된다. 기회 제시: 버리는 폭락장에서 가치 있는 투자처로 소형주, 특히 기술·기술 부품 분야의 저평가된 소형 성장주를 언급한다. 시가총액이 작고 성장 잠재력이 큰 기업에 대한 긍정적 견해를 보인다. 필수소비재 관련: 코카콜라, 크래프트 하인즈 등 음식·음료 기업은 시장 전체 하락으로 주가가 떨어져 저평가 상태이므로 매수 기회가 될 수 있다고 본다. 리스크: 장기간의 강세장 이후 약세장이 필연적으로 나타날 것이라는 전제에 기반하나, 폭락 시점은 명시되지 않았다. 출연자 전망: 시장이 버블 상태이며 약세장이 올 것이라는 비관적 견해, 소형 가치주와 필수소비재에 대한 낙관적 견해가 병존한다.
다듬은 글
one of the most famous investor moving off all the time is called the Big Shot for those that wouldn't heard about this in this movie it's Michael burry who predict the stock market crash and short stocks and make a lot of money if some one of us do not know what is shorting stocks it is bet against the stocks so Michael burry bet I was betting against these talks and he stops for going down and Michael burry makes a lot of money so what we are talking about right now so because the same guy Michael burry who predicted the stock market crash in 2008 now predicted the new stock market crash in terms of index bubble in this time right now he thinks that we are now in the similar position like 2008 so in this video we are talking about Michael Berea about new in this bubble and what is similar between 2008 and 2009 bubble so phenomenally favored just smelt like button and also subscribe if you do not already and leave the comment for help you top algorithm so let's get into it hello subscribe welcome back to my video and for beginning let's take a quick look at what Michael burry said he said that the passive investment our inflation stock and bond prices in the similar way that collateralized debt obligation see the audit for subprime mortgages more than 10 years ago like most bubble the longer it goes on the worst will crash be so for now we will discussing about similarity between crash 2008 and maybe between crush right now so we were talking about the similarity and in the end of the video we will talking about maybe opportunity to buy some stock in this bear market condition so let's start so in the two Thursday there is a very very big housing market which later caused the stock market crash so in 2000s perfect you have to something that you call house so when people want to buy house they need to borrow money of banks let's scroll mortgages so you'll normally get the motorist for Bank so bank saw what Bank is doing big motor just they're selling that mortgages in terms of investor ethical to others investment so before bank selling that mortage estate rate mortgages from triple-a which is the high high rate mortgages and we go down in the alphabet and versus B so there is one thing in this business first is greed so Green is one of the most important thing which caused the stock market crash in 2008 so it was situation that almost everyone who wants to get loans for house will got this mortgages and Bank sell these subprime mortgages to investors who are also really enough and who only want to high income returns so for now we are moving to the second thing in this business and it is lack of understanding this investor who buy this kind of investment do not understand the risk which is below do not understand the subprime the Triple A B and the others so let's sum up situation in 2008 so it was situation that almost everyone who want to get more teachers for the house is able to do it and investment was very very greedy banks were very very greedy a one look to high profit no one just realized the overall situation and investors does not understand that has the lack of understanding and just buy buy and buy this thing at was very bad situation and these things caused the stock market crash but what is similarity between 2008 and 2009 in the last 10 years we have a very very huge boom market so Michael burry said something like trillion of dollars in assets globally our index to this top so it is the same like 2008 you've got more and more people investing in the index bonds and as in 2008 they are just taught to get a greedy greedy greedy and just to and see the stock prices going up they buy more and more and as in 2008 it is just lack of understanding because they are buying just index phones they are do not to make any analysis they are not read the financing of any stock they just go and buy some Sam ETF which tracks the in response and essentially what happens when you get these two team greedy and lack of understanding you do not have to be some PhD it is very simple and this is just cause the new stock market crash so for now we will explain what is index fund in this fund our mutual fund that are designed to attract the returns of market index and index is a group that represents particular market segments over overall market it can be China market it can be the US market Inc can be Europe market one of the most famous index found is a cp200 and it is just assignment of five the biggest 500 stocks in America such a pasar coca-cola search Amazon and others and this is just group of the biggest stocks in America in the end just represent all overall US market so where is the problem with response because people do not make analysis or some stuff they just go and buy buy index fund like groups so they just don't know about true value or stroke and just go and buy in the phones this is cause the price of index phones is go up up and up so they don't understanding there is a lack of understanding there is a very very greedy and investor just copy each other's so they are keep going and going what does it is inflate the stock price and that is called the bubble and one day this bubble will pop it's just a matter of time so like Michael burry said this investment will crush on one stage about there is the opportunity today to in overall market so Michael burry is the man who can make money on any market and let's look at what he said there is a lot of value in the small cap spaces between technology and technology components I am big believer in the continued growth of remote and withdrawal technologies so you can now ask yourselves however the small cap can be more valued than big stocks of S&P 500 so here is the answer stock of scp-500 is one of the bigger stocks in the world and a huge price arch Amazon site april's such Facebook and in this case it is it is a valid company and it company can go what such like some very very small company it can go up 10 maybe 20 percent in some years and this in this case Michael burry talking about you talk about smoker company which has huge potential and very very low price so let's look at this one so it is Portman warehouse with only 220 market kept with very huge potential Michael burry on some of stocks like this which gave a huge potential a ok business model and these stocks can go up something like 200 sounds something like hundred percent in one year and this Michael burry talking about this small cap so Michael burry sees the opportunity in the small cap company because the offer value and the cheap Mike price so another huge potential is in another field potential in my opinion needs to start like coca-cola and perhaps so let me explain this can call it craft sign is business based on drink and food so in bear market in situation like 2008 these talks job about 30% so these talks are very business model and no one can tell me that that in this case people eat 30% Lawler's so these stocks dropped down because overall stock market not because such such bad happen in this stock so in this case this is the this is the good situation to buy some stock like coca-cola and Kraft Heinz because in this case it is undervalued so let's sum up this situation in my opinion in the 2008 stock market crash because of greed and lack of understanding about investment about the overall economy about the housing market I think that this this is the same situation right now this dome is agreed and perhaps a lack of understanding of index fond of stocks of financing and others it has been a bull market for more than 10 years and it's just much of time bear market will appear let me know in the comment section what you think let me know your opinion if you like it give me one big smash on the like button also do not forget to subscribe if you do not already do it and as always I am very thank you for watching I appreciate your time and have a good rest of the day enjoy
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