저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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AI 학습 비용 급락으로 추론칩 중요성 부각, 플랫폼형 SaaS(Palantir) 점유율 확대 전망. 트럼프 행정부 하 암호화폐 규제 명확화·비트코인 장기 가치 강조. 대형주 집중 후 광범위 강세장 전환 예상, AI 규제 완화 필요. 딥시크 충격은 경쟁으로 긍정 평가. 비트코인 단기 급락 가능성 언급되나 장기 낙관.
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I think what it's telling us is the cost of innovation is collapsing which it has been doing I mean the cost uh of uh AI training is dropping before this 75% per year the cost for in inference 85 to 90% um I think it uh throws the weight more towards inference chips from training chips and so invid is highly exalted and deservedly so in the training chip space inference is a lot more competitive all yes we've been studying the tech stack and where we think it's going we're going to put out Big Ideas in I think a week uh give us some hints yes so here's a hint uh we do think there are share shifts taking place within the tech stack uh we think platform as a service so think paler is going to gain significant share and this news yesterday uh I think uh highlights that and reinforces that uh we think infrastructure as a service uh is is going to stabilize a share uh Sal I mean um software as a service will come down a share however I've said all of that all of them will be growing rapidly it's just how rapid in this video Kathy Wood will talk about crypto regulation under Trump bitcoin's future and why she believes in its long-term value let's catch her up to know more about her bold predictions I think I think we will get significant Clarity in terms of Regulation we will get legislation as well I think many more uh policy makers in Washington understand that this was a single vote issue for many voters especially young voters and so this is becoming much more of a bipartisan issue and of course you have the executive branch uh also supporting it mightily uh you know proposing uh we include Bitcoin in uh treasury Reserve so you've got I think we're going to have supportive all three branches of government are going to be supportive which is a big change well I think he he didn't understand that this is the next big wave of the internet this is the layer of the internet that developers did not build in the early 90s because no one thought anyone would uh would buy or uh use Financial Services on the internet I remember back then no one was going to give their credit card to the internet right uh this is the next big wave and it's a huge efficiency move for the financial services sector um so and in terms of Bitcoin specifically it is really the leader in a new asset class uh and we have a paper out on that you can see the low correlations def which do Define a a new asset class uh and it is a global monetary system it's a very big idea uh my uh Professor Mentor friend art laugher uh when when he collaborated with us on our Bitcoin paper in 2015 he said this is what I've been waiting for since the US closed the gold window in 1971 uh so he has been energized by this new movement towards a rules-based rules-based global monetary systems I think uh competition is great for the US and uh deep seek is competition no doubt about it I'm hearing all of the Titans uh Tech Titans uh uh speak of it glowingly I don't think we know everything about it yet uh so no I think it's uh competition is good for the United States lowering costs is great for the world uh the collapse in the cost of innovation should help all regions of the world I will say uh that new productive forces which which was shishi Bing's uh new phrase uh I think 18 months ago uh seems to be showing through right now common Prosperity was the previous one and I I still think that's an effect that was more about margins this is about Innovation so um we're looking more closely at China now bitcoin's chances of falling below $775,000 before April remains slim with analysts estimating the probability at just under 10% according to Dad's head of research Cen Dawson the likelihood has has increased slightly to 99.2% up from 7.2% in the last 24 hours but bitcoin's overall strength remains intact recent Market volatility has contributed to the slight uptick in probability particularly as Bitcoin faced a 6.5% drop on January 27 briefly touching 97,98 this tip followed a broader decline in crypto and stock markets largely influenced by macroeconomic concerns in the launch of China based a project deep seeks latest model despite this pullback Bitcoin quickly recovered crossing the $100,000 Mark again and trading at 1002 $100 at the time of publication Dawson attributes The increased bearish sentiment to a spike in bitcoin's implied volatility which jumped from 52% to 76% this surge suggests that Traders are actively seeking downside protection indicating a more cautious approach amid uncertainty bitcoin's price movements continue to be closely tied to broader economic shifts bitfinex analysts point out that Bitcoin is no longer operating in isolation but is now firmly linked to global risk assets this means that macroeconomic events investor sentiment and market trends play a significant role in shaping its trajectory meanwhile bid and ex ex co-founder Arthur Hayes sees a potential pullback toward the $70,000 $75,000 range if such a drop occurs he believes it could spark a mini financial crisis potentially leading to renewed monetary stimulus a argues that this could pave the way for an eventual Bitcoin reality predicting a price surge to $250,000 by the end of 2025 despite Market fluctuations bitcoin's resilience remains a key factor in the broader Financial landscape while shortterm dips are always a possibility the long-term outlook for the leading cryptocurrency continues to generate optimism among analysts and investors alike well I think there's a big debate going on and if you look at uh the second third and fourth quarter of last year you look at the mega caps and the rest of the stocks in the S&P 500 you'll see Mega caps in the second and the fourth did very well uh and uh and uh the smaller cap stocks did very well much better than the mega cats in in the third quarter I think there's a little bit of a tug of war evolving here and if we're right the most massive concentration in the market in history uh worse than the depression uh is probably going to give way to a broader based bull market we're seeing that in our portfolios and and it really did start right around actually the day after the election uh and I think one of the most important things is going to happen is regulations coming down even in AI in the United States uh there regulations started to intrude in a technology that is today where the internet was in the early 90s we don't even know what we have yet yeah uh we we're as excited as back then but now is not the time to regulate it handily you know it's very interesting we've been thinking about uh president Trump or many people have been thinking that oh wow this is very negative for China and us uh relationship with China uh but there is another point in history that might be repeating to some extent here it's called Nixon in China Nixon did not trust China he and everybody trusted Nixon because he did not trust China and they knew he wouldn't lead us astray I think the same thing is happening here with President Trump uh and from a technology point of view I think he likes the competition and he actually did say I believe yesterday that you know this just shows that even in the US regulations especially that executive order on AI which he rescinded uh probably has held us back and now let's go bitcoin's recent dip below $100,000 has sparked fresh concerns among investors as volatility grips the world's largest cryptocurrency the drop coincided with the launch of deep se's newest ad model deep seek R1 which has been making waves in the tech World while Bitcoin isn't directly linked to the AI industry its price movements often mirror those of major tech stocks analysts have pointed to the strong correlation between Bitcoin and indices like the NASDAQ Composite meaning that fluctuations in the tech sector could have a direct impact on the cryptocurrency's value deep seeks ey model has been gaining traction rivaling leading us-based AI Technologies such as open eyes Chad Jeep TT the model's rapid success even pushed Nvidia stock down triggering a wider sell-off in the tech Market this broader economic shift contributed to bit coins decline as investor sentiment took a hit despite the sharp dip Bitcoin remains resilient rebounding above $13,000 within a day financial experts including Nigel green of D group caution against Panic selling emphasizing bitcoin's historical ability to recover from Market downturns with a track record of bouncing back from significant drops bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong and long-term investors continue to view it as a strategic asset with potential for subst stantial growth
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