저자: CharlieMunger · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 특정 종목·지수의 단기 방향을 예측하지 않고, 장기적 인플레이션·통화남발 위험과 투자 태도에 대한 찰리 멍거의 견해를 다룬다. 인플레이션과 민주주의 붕괴: 멍거는 인플레이션을 민주주의 붕괴의 주요 원인으로 보며, 로마 공화정과 바이마르 독일, 라틴아메리카 사례를 든다. 통화를 과도하게 찍으면 포퓰리즘과 독재로 이어질 수 있다고 경고한다. 장기 통화 가치 전망: 투자자의 작업 가설로서 향후 100년 내 통화 가치가 0으로 수렴할 것이라는 극단적 가정을 제시한다. 핵전쟁을 제외하면 가장 큰 장기 위험으로 본다. 연준과 정책 비판: 볼커 연준의 고금리 긴축을 높이 평가했다. 현대 정치인들은 그런 고통스러운 긴축을 감내하지 않을 것이므로 향후 문제는 과거와 다른 형태일 것이라고 봤다. 일본 사례: 일본은 막대한 돈 찍기에도 문명국으로 존속하고 있다고 언급하며, 극단적 위험이 과장되었을 가능성을 인정한다. 기술과 생활수준: 지난 100~200년간 기술 발전으로 인류 생활이 크게 개선되었고, 로봇화 등 기술 추세는 불가피하다고 본다. 다만 노동 대체와 기업 몰락에 따른 조정 문제가 생긴다고 지적한다. 사회적 시기심: 생활수준이 크게 올랐음에도 사람들이 불행해하는 이유는 탐욕보다 시기심 때문이라고 설명한다. 투자 조언: 인플레이션 대응책으로 우량 주식 외에는 완벽한 답이 없다고 보며, 버크셔·코스트코·중국주식 등 소수 자산 집중을 권한다. 과도한 분산투자는 불필요하고 좋은 투자처 4개 정도면 충분하다고 말한다. 현금 보유보다 찾을 수 있는 최선의 투자를 한다는 입장이다. 출연자 전망: 이 영상의 구체적 단기 가격 예측은 확인되지 않는다. 장기 인플레이션 위험과 현금 대비 투자 선호가 주된 견해다.
다듬은 글
inflation is a very serious subject you can argue it's the way democracies die when democracy dies in latin america inflation is a big part of it so it's a huge danger once you've got a populist that learns it can vote itself money if you overdo it too much you ruin your your civilization a lot and so of course it's a big long-range danger if you look at the roman republic even after they went to a empire with an absolute ruler they inflated the currency steadily for hundreds of years and eventually the whole damn roman empire collapsed so it's the biggest long runs danger we have probably apart from nuclear war i think the safe assumption for an investor is that over the next 100 years the currency's going to zero that's my working hypothesis what brought in hitler was the combination of the weimar inflation where they utterly destroyed the savings of the middle class in germany followed by the great depression it was a one-two punch and hitler came in crazy demagogue with 40 of the votes and pretty soon we had a dictator hell bent for world war so the history is not pleasant and germany was a very advanced and civilized nation so if you let your nation deteriorate too much what you get is a hitler when you throw money when you print money on the scale what modern nations are printing it japan the united states europe etc we're getting into new territory in terms of size there's never been anything quite like what we're doing now and we do know from what's happened in other nations that you if you transplant too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble and we are closer to terrible trouble than than we've been in the past but it may still be a long way off i certainly hope so when we when volcker after the 70s took the primary to 20 percent and the government was paying 15 on its government bonds that was a horrible recession lasted a long time caught with a lot of agony and i certainly hope we're never we're not going there again i think the conditions that allowed vulgar to do that without an interference from about politicians were very unusual and i think in 2020 hindsight it was a good thing that he did it i would not predict that our modern politicians will be as willing to permit a new volker to get that tough with the economy and bring on that kind of a recession so i think the new troubles are likely to be different from the old troubles you may wish you had you had a bokeh style recession instead of what you're going to get the troubles that come to us could be worse than what vulgar was dealing with think of all the latin american countries that print too much money they get strong men and so forth that's what plato said happened in the early greek city-state democracies one person one vote a lot of legality and you get demagogues and the democratic guns lather of the population i'm pretty sure you don't have your democracy anymore i i don't think that was a crazy idea on plato's part i think that accurately described what happened in greece way back then and happen it's and again and again in latin america we don't want to go there at least i don't we've done something pretty extreme and we don't know how bad the troubles will be whether we're going to be like japan or or something a lot worse and what makes life interesting is we don't know how it's going to work out i think we do know we're flirting with serious trouble i think we also know that some of our earlier fears were were overblown japan is still existing as a civilized nation in spite of unbelievable access by all former standards in terms of money printing think of how seductive it is you have a bunch of interest-bearing debts and you pay them off with checking accounts which you're no longer paying interest think about seductive that is for a bunch of legislators you get rid of the interest payments and the money supply goes up it seems like heaven and of course when things get that seductive they're likely to be overused if you start to think about it if you're going to invest in stocks for the long term or real estate of course they're going to be periods when there's a lot of agony in other periods when there's a boom and i think you just have to learn to live through them as kipling said treat those two impostors just the same you have to deal with daylight and night does that bother you very much no sometimes it's night and sometimes it's daylight sometimes it's a boom sometimes it's a bust i'm just i i believe in doing as well as you can and keep going as long as they let you we have a hugely strong economy and a hugely strong technical civilization that's not going away and the knowledge and so forth you can't believe what a modern factory looks like when you fill it with robots and that's coming more and more and more and it's coming to china too for that matter and so those trends are inevitable i don't know how it's all going to play out but i think it does create adjustment problems if you have a fine unionized job and they replace you with a robot you've got a difficult problem if you've got a company like kodak and they invent something new that obsoletes your product you have a problem too and you solve that by dying a lot of people don't like that solution i don't much care for it myself because all those problems are real and because it's so tempting to get rid of your debt by just giving a guy a non-interest bearing checking account where you used to have to pay him interest every month not only do we have a serious problem but the solution to it that is the easiest for the politicians and for the federal reserve too for that matter is just to print more money and solve the temporary problems that way and that of course is going to have some long-term dangers and we know what happened in germany when they d when the weimar republic just kept printing money the whole thing blew up and that was a contributor to the rise of hitler so all this stuff is dangerous and serious and we don't want to have a bunch of politicians just doing whatever is easy on the theory that didn't hurt us last time so we can double it and do it one more time and then we double it again and so forth we know what happens on that everlasting doubling doubling doubling you will have a very different government if you keep doing that enough and so you're flirting with danger somewhere unless there's some discipline in the process but i don't regard japan as in some terrible danger having they've done a huge amount of this and gotten by with it i don't think we'll be as good at handling our problems as japan is in my whole adult life i've never heard cash waiting for better conditions i've just invested in the best thing i could find i don't think i'm going to change now and the daily journals used up its cash now berkshire has access cash quite a bit of excess cash but it's not doing that because it knows things it knows how to time investments he just can't find anything he can stand by so we don't have a solution to your problem we're just coping with it as i've described the reason why i'm buying this we can't buy anything that prices we're willing to pay it's just that simple other people are betting the price up and a lot of the buying is not by people who really plan to own them a lot of it is feed driven by private equity buys things so they can have more fees by having more things under management of course it's a lot easier to buy something you use somebody else's money we're using our own money at least that's the way we think of it the shareholders who are worried about the future because it looks complicated and difficult in their hazard i want to say to them what my old torch professor said to me charlie he'd say charlie tell me what your problem is and i'll try and make it more difficult for you and he did me a favor by treating me that way just repeating his favor to you when you're thinking the thoughts you're doing at least you're thinking in the right direction you're worried about the right things all you people that are worried about the inflation and the future of the republic and so forth of course in a modern democracy in the age of keynes you're going to get big government reaction the reaction this time was bigger than it's ever been before in the history of the united states they just threw money at the problem and they were probably right to fear what was going to happen and to be quite liberal throwing money at it but they probably overdid it a little they threw so much money so fast that it's hard for the restaurants to get people to do the work but i don't criticize it it's hard to make these decisions under pressure well you have to be optimistic about the competency of our technical civilization but there again it's an interesting thing if you take the last 100 years 1922 to 20-22 most of modernity came in in that hundred years and in the previous 100 years that got another big chunk of modernity and before that things were pretty much the same for the previous thousands of years life was pretty brutal and short and limited and what have you no printing press no air conditioning no modern medicine noah so i don't think we're going to get things in what i call the real human needs think of what it meant to get say first you got the steam engine the steamship the railroad and a little bit of improvement with farming and a little bit of improvement in plumbing that's what you got in there in the hundred years it ended in 1922 the next 100 years gave us widely distributed electricity modern medicine the automobile the airplane the records the movies the air conditioning in the south and i think what a blessing it was if you wanted you wanted three children you had to have six because three died in an infancy that was our ancestors think of the agony of watching half your children die it just it's amazing how much achievement there's been in civilization in these last 200 years and most of it in the last 100 years now the trouble with it is is is that the basic needs are pretty well filled in the united states the principal problem of the poor people is they're too fat that is a very different place from what happened the past the past they were on the edge of starving and what happens is really interesting is with all this enormous increase in living standards and freedom diminishment of racial inequities and all the huge progress that has come people are less happy about the state of affairs than they were when things were way tougher and that has a very simple explanation the world is not driven by greed it's driven by envy so the fact that everybody's five times better off than they used to be they take it for granted all they think about is somebody else has having more now and it's not fair that he should have it and they don't that's the reason that god came down and told moses that you couldn't then be your neighbor's wife or even his donkey i mean even the the old jews were having trouble with envy and so it's built into the nature of things it's weird for somebody my age because i was in the middle of the great depression the hardship was unbelievable i was safer walking around omaha in the evening than i am in my own neighborhood in los angeles after all this great wealth and so forth so and i have no way of doing anything about it i can't change the fact that a lot of people are very unhappy and feel very abused after everything's improved by about 600 percent because there's still somebody else who has more i have conquered envy in my own life i don't have to be anybody i don't give a damn what somebody else has but if you stop think of the pretentious expenditures of the rich who in the hell needs a rolex watch so you can get mugged for it you know i mean yet everybody wants to have a pretentious expenditure and that helps drive demand in our modern capitalist society my advice to young people is don't go there the hell with the pretentious expenditure i don't think there's much happiness in it but it does drive the civilization we actually have and what's the best advice you have for individual investors to optimally deal with the negative impact of inflation other than owning quality equities well it may be that you have to choose the least bad of your a bunch of options that frequently happens in human decision making the mongers have berkshire stock costco stock chinese stocks through lilu a little bit of daily journal stock and a bunch of apartment houses do i think that's perfect no do i think it's okay yes i think the great lesson from the mongers is you don't need all this damn diversification that's plenty you're lucky if you've got four good assets i think the finance professors and the sell the idea that perfect diversification is professional investment if you're trying to do better than average you're lucky if you have four things to buy and to ask for 20 is really asking for egg in your beer it's it's very few people get can have enough brains to get 20 good investments
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