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you know we're gonna have some gold and silver hidden away and i will too and i will have more i just don't know when i'm going to buy more never before in recorded history has that been so high unfortunately the united states is the largest debtor nation in world history i don't like saying any of this i'm an american citizen voter taxpayer like you but it's the highest debt that any nation in the history of the world has ever had i knew for many years that america was building up its debt i knew that our politicians were incompetent and out of control but no i never expected it to go this high before it collapsed we will have a collapse someday because history shows it always happens but i never expected to get this high theory going around now you call mmt more money today they say don't worry we'll just print it we'll just print it there's not a problem at all so if you listen to them you should not worry not worry at all however i have read a little history and i've been around a while and i know that throughout history when you build up gigantic debts eventually it leads to a crisis or a semi-crisis we had a problem in 2008 as you remember well since then the debt has skyrocketed all over the even china now has a lot of debt china helped bail out the world in 2008 but even china now has a lot of debt so it's going to be a big mess okay so let's say we have a new bread and wood what are they going to do if you wipe out the debt well a lot of creditors are not going to be particularly happy if they wipe out the debt endowments insurance companies pension plans they're not going to be very happy if all of a sudden they found out the debt is wiped out so sure we can have a new bretton woods we can all drink good wine and lots of tea and coffee but what's the answer and that's the problem right now because the debt is the highest level ever in recorded history and to repeat america is the single largest debtor nation in world history it's never happened like this before so when will this end i don't know i'm not very good at market timing but that always comes to an end eventually i'm not shorting anything right now but i can see i can see bubbles starting to form in some assets i've been to this movie i've seen this movie before i know how it ends i don't know when it's going to end but i know in the next couple years it's going to end and it's not going to be fun but it is certainly happening all over the world america's not the only i mean we apparently according to the numbers have been hit worse by the virus than any other nation and who knows if the numbers are valid or not but it's certainly gotten worse and it's not helped anybody there are many companies families countries that are suffering and it's not unfortunate it's not over yet at least in most places it's not over yet you can come up with a universal basic income it sounds wonderful who's going to pay for it where's the money going to come from that's my question again sure mmt more money today says just print it but i've seen this rodeo not my first rodeo i know that you can print it all day long and it's fantastic but eventually that falls apart it always has anyway and i don't see why it would be different this time throughout history when you have people lose confidence in money or governments all of us peasants have some gold and silver in the closet we have some silver under the bed over there you know we forget what the politicians say forget the academics you know we're going to have some gold and silver hidden away and i will too and i will have more i just don't know when i'm going to buy more but the most important things are to be prepared because it's not going to be fun when we have problems next time it's never as fun but next time it's going to be worse because the debt is so so high so what i am trying to do with my daughters and everybody is to make sure that they develop their own personal skills they both speak perfect chinese for instance so i'm trying to prepare them for what perhaps will be the 21st century if i'm right chinese are going to be an extremely important language in their lifetime and so i'm that's one of the things i'm trying to prepare them for it's no good though to say to somebody look you've got to learn to play basketball if they don't like basketball well my girls don't particularly like basketball so i'm trying to to learn as a parent to help them emphasize the things they like i have been teaching them since they were born that they must save their money one of the first things i did was to give them piggy banks six piggy banks to be exact so that they would learn that when you get money you save it money is not to be spent it's to be saved and ultimately invested and so since they were little babies whenever they got money they learned to go over and put it in the piggy bank as you know many people's lives have been destroyed because they didn't understand money they ran up debts they didn't have savings they didn't invest so the most important thing that i wanted them to learn was money is to be saved and invested not spent and i think that is sinking into them so far so good i have learned that you cannot do enough homework research preparation there's always more you can do and you better do it because something will hit you out of left field otherwise belief is not enough you have to really know what's going on don't believe in belief believe in facts believe in reality make sure you know that you are right because if you just get passionate or hope or believe something you're probably going to suffer a lot so my main advice to everybody is just stay with what you know and then there won't be too much belief it'll be based on unreality and when things go wrong you will know better than most what to do and how to react if you just believe something you're probably not going to know what to do you're probably not going to know how to react when it goes against you so just nobody likes to hear this advice but the answer is just stay with what you know if i told you you could only have 20 investments in your life you wouldn't jump in and out of things you wouldn't jump into things that you heard on the tv or something and you would be better prepared because then when something goes wrong you will know what to do simple guy like me who's just researching it etc etc will not know nearly as much as you do because you know i hope you know a lot more about it and that's how you become successful nobody wants to hear that gets too boring but if you want to be successful be boring whenever there are hard times people look for easy answers i mean socialism and communism a great story it sounds wonderful we have tried you know mr marx was around over 150 years ago it's a good story very good story a lot of people liked it and a lot of people tried it but in the last 150 years we have found out it doesn't work nor does socialism work so sure but people who first of all don't have the experience or don't read history or don't see what's really happened love the story but i can tell you given human nature since it's a good story and it's an easy story more people will try it when things get really bad or try mmt you know more money today any good story easy story people will try because they think oh that'll save us unfortunately there's no free lunch this is just human nature i'm talking about you don't have to go around the world to know about human nature you read some history if nothing else and people will look for the easy answer and no i know it's not going to work and i know it'll make it worse in the end if you look at america in the past 15 years people just printed and spent and borrowed huge amounts of money after 2008 everybody said okay this is the only thing we can do we have to borrow a lot of money and spend a lot of money and print a lot of money it's the only way to save us foods like me said wait a minute guys it's going to make it worse in the end it's going to make it much worse in the end it's good to be old i don't have to worry about how this is going to wind up it's not a good time to be young because all the young people are going to be facing huge i mean gigantic debts and problems over your lifetime and it's not going to be an easy and you may try easy answers like 2008 but in the end somebody has to pay the price do i like it no i want an easy free lunch too oh my gosh i want things to fall out of the sky but i've read enough and been around long enough to know it doesn't work that way commodity is the only asset class as a class that i see that's still cheap and i know the fundamentals are changing you know more people in america study public relations and study agriculture now obviously if the world changes you have to change with the world i mean that's pretty straightforward energy is still the most important commodity at least if you ask me as i go i live in singapore and everybody here is still driving and taking the bus to work etc still has electricity nearly all energy comes from oil and natural gas that may be changing it seems to be changing but you know jeff even if you look at things like electric cars which seem to be coming firstly you got to produce the electricity which got to be made from something maybe it's sun power maybe a solar power or wind power but electric cars for instance use five times as much copper as regular cars so yeah the demand for oil may go down but the demand for copper is going to go up and lead and lithium and other things i just wanted to say one thing quickly i have not sold anything this year and i have not sold anything short i don't think this has ended yet there are very few central bankers in the world who know what they were doing there have not been very many smart central bankers ever anywhere in history so please don't believe they know what they're doing uh they have been printing a lot of money all over the world they have been buying assets all over the world and throughout history that has led to inflation now they keep telling us there will not be inflation or they will be not very long they just don't know what they're doing there's going to be more inflation you know it's here and things like silver and gold have always been a way to protect yourself from inflation i don't think that the exuberance is over yet all of these guys continue to print money and what will happen when things get bad when the markets go down for a while they will panic and they will print more money they don't want to lose their jobs they will do whatever it takes to keep their jobs it's not good for you and me it's not good for the world but they don't care about you and me they care about their jobs so when things start getting solved or going down they will print more money and we'll have a big rally that will probably be the last rally that will probably be when i sell but who knows it's always led to an asset bubble throughout history why is that trouble because when things get wildly overpriced a lot of new people come pouring into markets inexperienced people they get excited and exuber and then when the bubble pops and it always pops a lot of people lose a lot of money i hope i'm not one of them i know it's going to pop someday i know a lot of people are going to suffer i hope i'm not one of those people if you look back at markets anywhere in the last phase whether it's the last six months or the last few months a year some really crazy things have happened you look back at the end of the 90s the nasdaq the nasdaq the whole index like doubled in six months at the end and it's always that way people get really excited and exuberant and they see things going up they don't want to miss it they want to jump in and you have really wild crazy moves in america we sometimes call it a blow-off you know the market blows off uh it goes up so far so fast so i would expect that is going to happen again it has often happened in markets and it will probably happen again when they start printing again because then see when things get bad and the central bank comes riding in and prints more money everybody says oh we don't ever have to worry the central bank will protect us that's when you get really really worried
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