저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 경제는 이미 수축 중이거나 수축 직전이며, 인플레이션이 생활비를 짓눌러 가계의 재량지출이 줄고 실업이 급증하는 침체로 이어질 것이라는 전망. 경기 판단: 최근 두 해 경제지표가 급격히 둔화됐고, 거품이 빠지는 중이라고 진단. 밈주식·암호화폐로 돈을 번 젊은 투자자와 고정소득 은퇴자들이 다시 노동시장으로 돌아와 실업률을 끌어올릴 것이라고 주장. 통화정책: 연준은 과거 10년 이상 거품을 부풀려 왔고, 인플레이션을 잡겠다는 말은 허세(bluff)였다고 평가. 높은 부채 때문에 금리 인상과 통화 긴축으로 인플레를 잡는 것은 사실상 불가능하며, 2008년 금융위기처럼 연준의 잘못된 정책이 이번 위기도 만들었다고 주장. 자산 전략: 미국 주식과 미국 채권, 달러에서 빠져나와야 한다고 권고. 인플레이션 헤지로 금·은을 제시하고, 금은 온스당 약 1,850달러에서 횡보 중이며 2001~2011년 같은 대상승(약 5배) 가능성을 언급. 광산 섹터가 투기 자금의 최적지이며 기술주는 끝났다고 평가. 1970년대 스태그플레이션 때처럼 독일·일본 등 해외 배당주 비중을 확대하라고 조언. 시장 인식: 투자자들은 하락장마다 매수하는 습관(buy the dip)에 길들어 있어 위험을 인지하지 못하고 있다고 지적. 실제로는 시장 내부에서 기존 모멘텀 섹터가 꺾이고 소외 섹터가 52주 신고가를 기록하는 대규모 자금 이동이 진행 중이라고 주장. 이번 위기는 2008년보다 훨씬 클 것이며, 문제를 미뤄온 기간만큼 충격도 커질 것이라는 경고. 리스크: 인플레이션이 초인플레이션으로 번지거나 인플레이션성 공황(depression)으로 악화될 가능성, 미국이 재정적으로 지급불능 상태에 가까워 1980년 같은 금리 인상 해법을 쓸 수 없다는 점을 강조.
다듬은 글
the economy is already contracting if you look at the data that we got or close to contracting if you look at the data we got at the end of last year and the economic data that we've got this year you can see a sharp deceleration as the air is coming out of the bubble but what's really going to cause this recession is inflation because inflation is going to drive the cost of living up so high that americans are going to be spending a very high percentage of their disposable income on the basic necessities food energy rent insurance health care they're not going to have money left over for discretionary spending and that means the people who earn a living in the part of the economy that benefits from that discretionary spending they're going to be unemployed and in fact there's going to be a lot of people who are going to be joining the ranks of the unemployed who over the last year or two didn't work because they made a lot of money in meme stocks or cryptocurrencies and as their paper fortunes blow up a lot of these millennials are going to realize that they actually have to get a job that they can't live off of their their trading prowess they're not the geniuses that they thought they were uh they're going to be looking for jobs and in fact a lot of retirees who never who thought they would never work again they're going to be back in the workforce because inflation is going to decimate the value of their portfolios you know at least workers you know you can get a wage that will increase it probably won't increase as much as prices so you're still going to fall behind your real wages are gonna go down even if you get a nominal raise but if you are uh retired and you're living on a fixed income that fixed income is gonna be obliterated by inflation and now what are you gonna do you no longer have the ability to put food on the table or pay the electric bill based on your retirement income you've got to go back into the workforce and until you find a job well you're unemployed and so i think unemployment's going to spike up we're going into a recession and there's nothing the government can do about there's nothing the federal reserve can do about it because what they normally do to stimulate a recession is they create more inflation they print more money well how can they do that if you're already having an inflation problem simultaneously to your recession how can you try to cure the recession by making inflation worse and if the reason for the recession is inflation and you deliberately make inflation worse to try to stimulate the economy you're actually going to sedate the economy you're going to make the recession that you're trying to cure even worse uh with uh with with your your monetary cure that doesn't work so we're really at the end of the rope for the fed i mean they've been kicking the can down the road uh for over a decade they've been papering over every session every stock market decline by creating inflation and hiding behind the guise of the fact that hey inflation is under 2 so we could do all this and they kept saying all the time if inflation ever gets above 2 well we've got the tools we'll do something about it and i was saying the whole time they don't really have the tools maybe they have them but they'll never use them because they would completely obliterate the bubble economy that they've spent all of these years inflating so it was all a bluff it was all bark and no bite when it came to inflation fighting in fact the fed was trying to carry a big stick or that the fed was pretending it had a big stick by talking tough knowing that it had no stick at all because it is impossible when you have an economy that is so levered up and the only way to cure inflation is to force it to leveraging is to raise interest rates and shrink the money supply given how much debt we already have it's impossible and the reason the economy is so loaded up with debt is because of the monetary policies pursued by the fed so the crisis that we're going to have just like the financial crisis of 08 was completely manufactured by the federal reserve it was bad monetary policy that inflated this bubble and it's bad monetary policy as it deflates that's going to make the situation much much worse but for investors the path is clear you've got to get out of u.s stocks and out of u.s bonds in particular you got to get out of the dollar and you need to be in inflation hedge investments one obviously being gold and silver gold prices as i'm speaking are around eighteen hundred and fifty dollars an ounce we're still below the highs from last year which for about twenty one hundred gold has been consolidating one of the reasons that gold hasn't gone up is because everybody has expected the fed to successfully fight off inflation with a tighter monetary policy again monetary policy will be less loose but that's not enough to win a battle with inflation it may be enough to prick the bubble in tech stocks but it's not going to derail this inflation juggernaut and when people realize that they are going to be piling in to gold and silver prices are going to go up dramatically i think we're going to have another leg similar to the leg we had from 2001 to 2011 where gold was up about 5x it could easily happen again and that means the money that's going to be made in the mining sector is going to be even bigger that's where your speculative funds should be invested forget about tech stocks they're old news they worked in the past they're not going to work in the future what's going to work is what worked in the 1970s the last time we had stagflation of course this time it's going to be far worse the inflation is going to be much worse the economy is going to be much weaker and unfortunately we won't be able to put a stop to it like we did in 1980 because we have no ability to raise interest rates because the country is completely insolvent which was not the case in 1980 when we were still a wealthy creditor nation we still had trade surpluses we had relatively small debt relative to gdp the mirror image of america today so we're not going to have a a ending a positive ending like the one we had with volcker and reagan we're going to have something completely different and catastrophic and so it's even more important that you stagflation proof your portfolio because it might end up being an inflationary depression not just a recession but a depression and the inflation could end up being hyper inflation and so you also want to get into foreign equities i think that should be the bulk of a portfolio good dividend paying foreign equities those a portfolio like that in early 1970 if you divested of the u.s stock market and you got into german stocks you got into japanese stocks you did great during the 1970s as people who stayed wedded to the u.s stock market got killed and they got killed even more if they stayed in the u.s bond market so you need to follow that blueprint i mean most investors today weren't even investing back then they have no idea how to do anything differently from what they've been doing and i think most investors have no idea what's already happening they haven't even looked beneath the surface of what's happening during this market meltdown to realize the huge rotation that is taking place that there are stocks that are making 52-week highs in sectors that no one has been buying in years because everybody wanted momentum well now the momentum is down and it's a race to get out but a lot of people won't even realize what's happened they've been conditioned to buy the dip and it doesn't matter to them if the market goes down they're confident it's going to go up whether you're talking about you know overpriced tech stocks or or crypto currencies everybody thinks that every sell-off is going to be followed by a move up to new highs and so they're complacent they're not worried and they're going to get obliterated but what the smart investor has to do is recognize that the day of reckoning is here a lot of people you know don't understand that because they had no idea that there was a problem to reckon with just like so many people were surprised by the financial crisis of 2008 i wasn't surprised i had been expecting it for years it finally happened this next crisis is going to be much worse again the same people that were blindsided by the financial crisis of 2008 have no idea that this even larger crisis is around the corner i do i've been expecting it for years the one thing that surprises me is not that we're here but that it's taken us so long to get here and the bigger problem is because we succeeded in kicking the can down the road for so long all the problems that are going to create this crisis are now much bigger and therefore the ensuing crisis is going to be far worse than what we would have experienced had we experienced it sooner which means the stakes for investors are that much higher
Comments 0