저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 금·은 약세가 지속되는 가운데 Faber는 정상적인 여건에서는 금·은이 매력적 투자처라고 보지만, 정부의 자산 압수 위험 때문에 확신은 제한적이라고 말함. 경제 상황 및 정책 평가: 코로나 봉쇄와 백신 의무화 등 정부 정책을 강하게 비판하며, 정부가 앞으로도 끔찍한 경제 정책을 계속 낼 것이라고 전망함. 인플레이션을 정부가 뒤늦게 인정했다고 지적함. 금·은 및 원자재: 은은 온스당 18달러, 금은 1700달러대로 언급. 금·은·백금 등 산업용 금속은 올해 대부분 약 20% 하락했다고 함. 정상 여건에서는 금·은이 매력적이나 정부의 자산 압수 가능성을 우려함. 자산시장 및 경기 전망: 올해 주식과 채권이 동시에 하락한 것은 처음 본다고 함. 주식 20% 하락은 보통 경기침체 신호인데 인플레이션에 가려져 대중이 인지하지 못한다고 봄. 경기침체 상태라는 판단이며, 경기침체 시 채권이 강세여야 하나 금리 상승으로 채권도 하락했다고 함. 미국 금리·주택시장: 미국 30년 모기지 금리가 6%를 넘었고 주택 착공이 둔화, 은행의 모기지 브로커 해고 등 주택시장 냉각을 지적함. 실업률 상승 시 연준이 정책을 바꿀 수 있다고 봄. 금융기관 부실, 대형 사기, 실적 쇼크 등을 정책 전환 계기로 언급함. 러시아·우크라이나: 푸틴은 합리적 행위자이며 나토의 우크라이나 가입 저지가 핵심 조건이라고 설명함. 서방이 러시아 군사력을 과소평가했다고 봄. 협상이 이뤄졌으나 서방(존슨)이 방해했다는 기사를 언급하며, 분쟁 지속으로 이익을 보는 세력이 있다고 주장함. 러시아 에너지 없이 유럽이 버틸 수 없다고 봄. 리스크: 정부의 자산 압수 가능성, 경기침체, 지정학적 갈등 확대. 출연자 전망 요약: 금·은은 장기적으로 매력적이나 단기적으로는 약세와 정책 리스크가 존재한다는 입장.
다듬은 글
what did these reader madwork advocates do they implemented lockdowns and closed down small shops and small businesses and bankrupted millions of people are you surprised by um you know silver's now i'm down at 18 an ounce and gold is below eight is in the 1700 range now um are you surprised gold and silver are so low with all the crisis crises in the world the philosophical question is can anything still surprise you because we have democracies and when i went to school i was told well we produce good people because uh in a democracy you vote for the best people and they get at the top to the top and so forth and they run the business according to essentially democratic principles but we have the worst governments the most incompetent people at the top and so forth so suddenly i'm no longer surprised about anything and then i was told whenever i went to school or university or later on in my life or in democracies we have freedom what did this read the medical advocates do they implemented lockdowns and closed down small shops and small businesses and bankrupted millions of people you understand this is not democratic measure no royalty has ever done that to its citizens in a in a kingdom no feudal has ever done that but this democracy did as it as socialism did by the way through expropriations but uh the question is also what will the government do next you know they suddenly came out and said everybody needs to have a vaccine and if you don't have a vaccine you cannot work in the police or in airlines and this and that and so on so that created labor shortages so i'm used to extremely bad decisions and i'm prepared to accept that the government will continue to implement horrific economic policies horrific they also didn't acknowledge inflation until just recently the whole of last year they said oh there's no inflation it's transitory and there was there's a blip up and down and so on and then when you ask me well are you surprised of these setbacks in gold silver platinum and by the way industrial commodities this year most of them are down 20 percent not oil but the metals and to this i respond well we have tightening liquidity this we have to see is not obvious to everyone but basically asset markets have been weak this year and i never seen i mean i started to work in 1970 so i've had some experience and i don't want to overplay the experience i had because sometimes you forget things and there was i never seen that stocks and bonds would go down at about the same rate equally normally when you have a stock market decline of 20 percent as we had recently uh it would signal a recession okay i think we are in recession but it's the but the public doesn't see it that way because it's hidden by inflation but we are in recession and at the same time bonds went down normally in recessions bonds the bond market rallies in other words interest rates come down but this time around as the economy weakened interest rates went up and when the inflection point will come i don't know but in this situation first of all it's quite obvious i'm sort of a i wouldn't call a gold park and silver bug but under normal conditions i believe that gold and silver is an attractive investment at the present time i say under normal condition because when i look at these government officials what they've done they may one day say well the goal that you have is not yours anymore right it's maybe more difficult to do nowadays than it used to be because there's a whole industry around the etf sensor force and to go to calpers and you know to the pension but this is this is now know your loan or yours maybe a little bit touchy but it can be done they've done it already yeah we we have that you know here in the united states uh 30 years the mortgage rates 30-year interest rates have yesterday got above six percent so and you can already see it in our numbers the housing market the housing starts have all slowed down the banks are laying off mortgage brokers you can really sort of see that happening in the housing market that that's coming to a halt which uh and you can support work all sorts of notices of layoffs are starting i wouldn't be surprised if the unemployment rate starts going a little bit higher and and those types of numbers that's when the fed really starts feeling the pressure right to uh that they can't continue with the current sighting path when more and more people are unemployed and uh that that might be the trigger you think before they have to change policy well we don't know if the policy change could also come because of a financial institution that fails or something like that or a massive fraud or a horrible earnings disappointment in a stock that is important and the stock collapses lots of reasons they will find an excuse to eat if they really can't find anything they'll say well it's because of putin we have to ease and if putin has already died then they'll find xi jinping in china or somebody yeah they always have to have an enemy they have to if they don't have an enemy they'll create an enemy for what do you think of vladimir putin do you think he's uh a rational actor do you think he's got a plan here or is he just a you know a madman on the loose out there and and uh he's just what's your gut instinct on what it will take for russia to start normalizing and getting the energy i mean obviously the world needs the energy and the commodities from russia i mean there's not enough natural gas and oil to just completely ignore russia i think that's sort of foolish of the europeans and the americans to believe that we can do without russian energy so what does it take to get back to normal is there any solution or they're just going to keep hurting us by by keeping this going long term well you asked actually two or three different questions in one sentence first of all he is rational and he clearly outlined his view he said we don't want nato in ukraine very clear condition the western world the us has no strategic advantage to have nato in ukraine whatsoever zero for what yeah but no they wanted to go and test him and annoy him also they kept on building up the army in ukraine this is not an effort for the last six months they've been doing this for five years sending weapons and military personnel that trained ukraine army the war as probably kind of in terms of difficulty exceeded his expectations also he has overestimated the strength of the russian military he must have realized our military is hopeless in kind of day-to-day battle that may be correct because when hitler invaded russia the russian army was not at all prepared for the aggression right it's only over time that they were able to respond but when they responded they responded with incredible firepower incredible yeah and that already happened uh 200 years ago when napoleon invaded russia the russian army retreated and the last big battle was at borodino in 1812.
and the russian army officially the french one but it was a victory which was extremely costly extremely costly the russian army retreated wisely retreated and didn't want to fight anymore because the casualties were so high so they thought what for we let them uh move further into russia and then the winter came and that was then the the end of the invasion essentially because the russian had turned part of uh moscow the french had to retreat that's when the russians and the kazakhs and everybody went after the french when they started to retreat that's when they beat them really not in the aggression so we have to be very careful and in my view the neocons there are some people they want to war recently an article appeared and these are news that have been verified they're not fake news apparently the russians and the ukraine were negotiated in came uh the poodle of the us mr boris johnson and said no no no no we don't want that so they want the door they want the conflict to continue i suppose that there's a lot of money to be made in ukraine yeah you give 13 billion or 20 billion dollars or a billion dollars to ukraine and someone gave some money back big time
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