저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 레이 달리오는 과잉 부채와 마이너스 실질금리 속에서 구조적 인플레이션이 지속되며 일시적(transitory)이 아니라고 본다. 거시 동인: 달리오는 시장을 움직이는 주요 힘으로 통화·신용, 국내 정치 갈등(부의 격차), 중국의 부상, 기술 혁신, 자연재해·팬데믹을 꼽는다. 이 중 자연재해·팬데믹이 역사적으로 전쟁보다 더 많은 생명을 앗아갔고 문명을 무너뜨렸다고 강조한다. 금리와 저축: 단기금리뿐 아니라 실질 채권수익률도 100bp 넘게 마이너스이며, 자산을 저축하면 연 3~5%씩 구매력을 잃는다고 봤다. 이 때문에 사람들은 저축 대신 차입하고, 자금이 주식·실물자산 등 투자자산으로 몰린다. 주식·채권 평가: 주식은 아주 비싸지는 않고 채권 대비 약간 비싼 수준이며, 현금 대비로는 여전히 비싸지 않다고 본다. 채권은 매우 비싸다. 모든 자산의 기대수익률은 상대적으로 낮다. 인플레이션 구조: 경기순응적(cyclical) 인플레이션과 통화적(monetary) 인플레이션이 동시에 존재한다고 진단한다. 현재 수요가 공급 능력을 초과하고 대규모 돈과 신용이 풀리고 있다. 적자가 구조적이며 기후변화 대응과 청정에너지 전환 비용도 장기적으로 인플레이션을 높인다. 정책 전망: 경기순응적 인플레를 잡으려면 큰 폭의 긴축이 필요하지만, 그 결과는 증시와 경제에 매우 약세적이라 연준이 용인하기 어렵다. 구조적 적자는 화폐화(monetize)되어야 하므로 인플레는 일시적이지 않고 과거 상태로 돌아가지 않는다. 기축통화 논의: 달러 기축통화 지위는 부채 확대 능력을 주지만 장기적으로 상환 부담을 낳는다. 역사적으로 고금리 저축 국면과 초저금리·통화 증발 국면이 번갈아 왔고, 자산 배분도 그에 맞춰 반대로 가져가야 한다고 강조한다. 금·은·비트코인 등 개별 자산 가격의 구체적 목표가나 기간에 대한 직접 언급은 영상 자막에 없다. 출연자 전망 중 금·은 방향은 명시적으로 확인되지 않는다.
다듬은 글
we certainly see it today in market prices and in everything that's happening there are three sometimes maybe we can stretch that to five big things that are happening and they are reflected in market prices and the dynamics behind them and their change will be reflected in changes in market prices and those three big ones are first that which is happening with money and credit in other words when you get close to zero interest rates and you spend a lot more money than you were then the government does that that means that a lot of money is printed and it moves its way through the system in a way that is reflected in market prices and so that is what is happening now the second is the very large internal conflicts that we're having that are due to wealth gaps political gaps and so on that influence the left and the right and the dynamic between them that affects tax policies that affects capital flows and the like and they're reflected in market prices and will change as those circumstances change and the third big influence is the rise of a great power china to challenge the existing leading power and the existing world order and that is being reflected in market prices but will be reflected more as those circumstances change the other two that have been reflected through history and i didn't have a full appreciation of until i studied the last 500 years of history those two are technology and inventiveness changes we're accelerating the rate at which they are occurring and that adaptability and change is affecting our lives in big ways so you cannot ignore the technologically and inventiveness changes and the fifth are acts of nature you know the one thing that was interesting to me when i studied the last 500 years of history is that acts of nature and they could be climate related droughts and floods and pandemics had cost more lives and toppled more civilizations than anything else including wars so they are something that comes along irregularly you know when you have the pandemic or the drought or that event that comes along once in a hundred years or so they have had big effects too so pandemic is a reminder of those but those are the drivers and they will remain the main drivers and as they change prices will continue to change i think you have to look at the dynamic behind those prices and i think i would look at them a bit differently regarding the dynamic behind those prices it is that we are spending more than we are earning by a lot individuals and the country as a whole and that we need money partially because of the political issues partially for all the reasons that you know so a lot of debt is being created that is also producing the need for a lot of money and as a result of that we have very negative real interest rates real interest rates of short-term interest rates are significantly negative and even bond yields real bond yields are over 100 basis points negative and so when one looks at the return of owning those bonds that is a very bad return it means that if you save in those assets and you put it away that you will lose buying power at probably a rate of three to five percent per year we can guess what inflation is and we could talk about that but you will lose that and that tax on your buying power makes one not want to be saving in those assets it makes one want to borrow in those assets and the available of credit and that set of circumstances drives money into other assets and those assets are investment assets as well as goods and services and so what we see now is that stocks are not expensive not very expensive maybe a little bit more so than normal relative to bonds which are very expensive but still not expensive in relation to cash and so they are all having expected returns that are comparatively low and we have an inflationary period so it's very important to understand the paradigm that we're in and how that dynamic works and so as the inflation pressures become an issue and we have relatively let's say stronger growth those things will start to change and so the big question that the markets look at is how will that change as a result how will the federal reserve and until central banks begin to tighten monetary policy because these things will change and what will tax policies be and the like and those things will affect market prices going forward it's unsustainable there's always throughout history a debtor and a creditor and there's always throughout history the ability to create demand by creating debt and by creating money and then there become clear preferences for doing one or the other there are environments like the late 1970s when federal reserve chairman paul volcker tightened money and wanted to make it good to save and bad to borrow and have credit that set of circumstances was caused and that action was caused by things that happened before it high real interest rates and the like and that produced the environment that we had largely the disinflationary environment that followed similarly the 1960s led to the 1970s the 60s had too much debt creation due to war vietnam and what we call guns and butters policies that we're spending more than we were earning and that led to the necessity in 1971 for the president of the united states to acknowledge that they would no longer be able to pay the dollar claims in gold and to default on the gold claim and to devalue the exchange rate and to devalue the dollar which led to the 1970s inflation and so on so there are always all through history the dynamic in which there are high real interest rates and it pays to be a saver for sometimes and there are times when there are very very low real interest rates and the need to create a lot of money and credit and it pays to have assets of the opposite side of assets positioned in the opposite way and that's been true throughout history and that's the main driver so i think when we look forward we can use those as guides to what's likely to happen in the way of excess return it's in fact the way the system works in other words investors borrowers and lenders look at the relative expected returns of cash bonds and other asset classes and move their money between those things based on the relative pricing and that's why for example when there is a rise in interest rates a tightening of monetary policy and short-term interest rates are rise relative to longer-term interest rates so the yield curve begins to flatten and so on that we see that there's a slowing in the economy and a slowing in capital availability lending long-term lending there's a shift to saving and as a result there's a slowing of the economy that's to me how the system works the market is like any it's like a poker game i've played the poker game for over 50 years and i'm saying it's a zero-sum game relative to what's priced in and the smart people take money away from those who are less smart and that's the way it works i wouldn't be in the business unless that was true the dollar as a reserve currency gives one the ability to print the world's money it is both a good and bad thing being able to create debt gives you the buying power being able to print the world's currency such as when we were in the covid crisis and being able to print the currency that around the world will be accepted allowed us to sell more debt because when you buy debt it's somebody else's currency in other words when one owns debt the buyer of that debt is owning your promise to deliver them currency and when you have the world's reserve currency it allows you to get into more debt now getting into more debt has historically if not done correctly or not done sustainably in a way it creates obligations to pay back and those obligations to deliver currency and pay back have produced different types of problems in the future and so debt is very short-term stimulative and it's longer-term depressing and the ability to do that and have others take on our liability as john conley said when he was the treasury secretary and the dollar was the valuing and a risk the dollar is our currency but it's your problem it's a net benefit but like most things it's cyclical because you have to pay back and it produces problems sometimes when you pay back so the united states is more indebted as a result of it being a reserve currency and it all depends on you know who's going to get stuck with that there are two main sources of inflation there's the usual supply and demand for goods cyclical inflation so that when there's a demand for something that there can't be a greater amount of supply being produced for it there's an upward pressure in that price and so that comes from strong demand pressing up against capacity limitations that's cyclical inflation and it depends on how far the central bank accommodates that so that's the cyclical inflation the second is monetary inflation when the production of debt is large but the central bank produces more money and credit that has the effect of devaluing the value of money and credit which doesn't look like it is going down as much as it looks like other things are going up so that you see things going up as they are now and that's monetary inflation i think right now we have both cyclical inflation and monetary inflation so that if you look at the demand for everything right now the demand is greater than the capacity it's really an excess demand issue provided by a lot of money and credit being put out and we also are running large deficits and as we start to look farther forward um we have these very cheap interest rates which means that it pays to buy things like let's say houses i mean practically there's no interest rate to speak of and now a lot of loans are made on interest only loans even so with hardly any interest rate and not having to pay back principal payments in terms of the amount of ridiculousness that's gotten to that way there's a lot of demand for those kinds of things now that could be cyclical but i don't believe when i look forward that our deficits will be primarily cyclical so i looked into the issues of politics and the issues of the deficits and the needs for money and credit or the desires for money credit and i think that they'll be structural and i think then also there are certain changes in expenses for example while i believe that climate change and moving to cleaner energy and other such moves is very good for our ecosystem in the long run it's also very expensive and it makes less efficiency so that's going to at that same time add to inflation so yeah my worry or belief is that that will increasingly be built into the process which we're seeing for example in terms of changes in compensation changes in many many things everybody's seeing inflation around them and it's not just something that's going to settle back so if i take the cyclical piece it's going to require enough of a tightening if you were to deal with that in monetary policy to stop that buy and the consequences of that would be very bearish for markets and it would be very bearish for the economy and i believe too bearish for the federal reserve to want to tolerate and that would only deal with the cyclical inflation pressures whereas at the same time we have the structural issues of those kinds of deficits that need to be monetized so for those reasons i don't believe it's transitory that we will go back to what we experienced before
Comments 0