저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 현재는 본격적인 약세장의 시작이 아니며, 우크라이나 사태 해결 등을 계기로 한 차례 큰 반등이 나올 수 있다는 견해. 금 전망: 금은 다른 자산보다 선방 중(연초 대비 약 7% 하락, S&P500 약 20%, 나스닥 약 30% 하락 대비). 본인은 금을 많이 보유 중이나 지금은 매수하지 않으며, 패닉성 매도가 나오면 다시 살 것이라고 함. 은은 향후 매수 가능성 언급. 달러 전망: 달러는 장기적으로 무분별한 제재 사용 등으로 기축통화 지위가 약화될 것이라고 봄. 단기적으로는 안전자산 선호로 강세이며 본인도 달러를 많이 보유. 유로 대비 패리티 수준이며 0.7유로까지 하락 가능성 언급, 달러 버블 가능성도 제시. 금리·경기: 연준 긴축과 경기침체 가능성에 대해 당국이 과거 경기침체를 늦게 인식했다며 불신 표명. IMF는 금리 인상이 2023년까지 이어질 것이라고 봄. 반등 시나리오: 비관론이 극에 달해 있어 과거 경험상 랠리가 나올 수 있으며, 우크라이나 관련 긍정적 소식 시 유가·곡물 하락, 주식 상승 가능. 다만 그것이 마지막 큰 상승 기회일 수 있다고 봄. 약세장 평가: 현재 약세장은 본인 생애 최악의 약세장이 아니라고 함. 평화가 오더라도 신고점은 가능하나 약세장 자체는 부정되지 않음. IMF 및 국제기구: IMF·세계은행 폐지가 낫다고 주장. 과거 IMF가 동남아 등에 대해 잘못 예측한 사례 지적. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 반등 가능성, 중장기적으로 달러 약세와 기축통화 교체 가능성에 무게.
다듬은 글
huge amounts of pessimism whenever there's a lot of pessimism it often leads to a rally if something happens in ukraine there'll be a big rally all right jim going back to safe havens gold as we know is supposed to be a safe haven particularly in times of economic turmoil and geopolitical tensions we certainly have that now granted gold has performed better than other asset classes it's holding its value better down about seven percent here to date compared to the s p 500 as we've mentioned down 20 the nasdaq down 30 so gold holding its own compared to other assets and it does have to contend with a very strong dollar but do you think that gold should be doing better in this environment again it happens many times that when you have assets going down nearly all assets go down i mean if you remember 2008 gold went down a lot at first and of course it hit bottom earlier and skyrocketed after that it's another asset that we all like to buy or sell i own a lot of gold as you know i'm not buying now and if i will buy more silver soon probably or gold soon probably but no in my view and i'm a horrible market timer but in my view it's a normal correction in a time of despair despite the time when people are worried about assets and when they're worrying about assets they throw everything out to win them and if people get margin calls they have to sell anything they can to meet their margin costs so what is the level that you would consider buying gold that's a good question i'll have to watch kid go no the answer the market will tell me if i see hysteria in the market in panic and everybody's saying get rid of my gold that would probably make me want to buy gold again so not a price level that you're watching for it depends on what the market the market will tell me the price i hope the market will tell me the price i'll still get it wrong but i hope the market will give me guidance and people say wait a minute an international medium exchange is supposed to be neutral that's not the way it's supposed to work so for many reasons many countries are now looking even our allies are now looking for something to compete because it could happen to them you know all of a sudden washington could say you're finished so for political reasons it's accelerating the move to looking for a competitor to the dollar and of course the economic reason we're the largest detonation in world history i'm not the only person who knows that the whole world knows it historically big currency major top currencies change every 100 years or so so for political and economic reasons it's already in process and this may make it worse because washington has said we'll take your money away from you if we don't like you many people have had their assets seized by the u.s because they don't like them enough so in the long run the weaponizing of the dollar serves against the dollar in terms of maintaining its dominance but in the short term we have the dollar performing incredibly well stronger than the euro at the moment why is that well i own a lot of u.s dollars as we've discussed before the reason i own them not because it's a sound currency it's a disaster going forward but in times of turmoil people look for a safe haven and for historic reasons they think many people think the dollar is a safe haven it's not but they think it is so i own a lot of u.s dollars us dollars going to get overpriced might even turn into a bubble depending on how bad things get but somewhere along the line and getting sooner rather than later and i don't like saying it but i'm an american but more and more people are accelerating the search for something to compete with the doctor i don't know what if you know what it's going to be don't announce it on the air because i'm looking for it every day maybe a commodity-backed sdr or something i'm skeptical but who knows what they might try what does a bubble in the dollar look like oh the dollar right now is a par with the euro could go to the euro could go to 70 cents you know euro could go down a lot against the dollar so that would be a big big bubble in the us dollar but what is your outlook at large especially as the fed tightens more aggressively i wish i could quote you all of the times washington and said we're not in a recession when we were they didn't even know it that the recession had started and likewise central bank people my outlook is that if we have peace if something there's a lot of pessimism around right now huge amounts of pessimism whenever there's a lot of pessimism it often leads to a rally if something happens in ukraine there'll be a big rally oil will go down grains will go down stocks and everything will go up for a while i don't know what will cause the rally but we're probably going to have a big rally that rally is i hope i was smart enough to sell that rally because that's probably the last big route it could be very big rally but that's probably the last time and that would or could be triggered by a resolution to the conflict in the war in ukraine is what you could see as the possible trigger for a rally and the obvious for me would be if something happened in ukraine i have no idea i don't have any inside information but if something happens that would cause a big route but you're saying we're currently in a bear market but not necessarily the one that you anticipate will be the worst in your lifetime when it's worse in my lifetime you'll know it it's not now it's we're not in the middle of it now this is not the worst bear mark in my life this is nothing this is nothing oh my gosh you should have i have seen some astonishing bear markers not just in the u.s all over the world but you don't think that we're in the beginning of the worst bear market of your lifetime to define it that way yes but if there were peace we might make new highs but still that would not negate the bear market well in in terms of the outlook of the imf the international monetary fund they think that inflation globally will likely be tamed by next year when rate hikes start to work the imf's saying that global interest rates will keep rising until 2023 and then heated prices will begin to cool in response to actions from central banks what do you agree i i've been investing a long time i have never known the imf to be fighting about anything i don't even bother i mean the best thing we could all do is abolish the imf we're not because there are too many people who make money off the imf they've never been right about anything abolish the imf huh yeah we'd be better off that would be a way towards solving some of our problems we abolished your imf the world bank we'd be on the way why why do you think that that would necessarily help solve some of the global economic problems we spend on the world bank and the imf every year huge amounts of money all those guys that are bureaucratic work they love working for the imf they get tax-free pensions they get high high salaries they get all sorts of perks they think it is heaven you know who's paying for it yeah us well taxpayers in the u.s global taxpayers just to play devil's advocate here don't we need a global bodies to coordinate things on the world stage it would be wonderful if you can get a good one do it i am if ain't it you should go back and read some of the imf's annual reports some of the things they have said and you would be stunned stunned at how many times they said southeast asia's great and then the next year there's a gigantic crisis in southeast asia i could go on and on
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